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POLL: Selzer & Co Iowa


A new Des Moines Register statewide survey of likely caucus-goers (conducted 5/12 through 5/16 by Selzer & Company) finds:

Among 401 Republicans, former Gov. Mitt Romney (at 30%) leads Sen. John McCain (18%) and former Mayor Rudy Giuliani (17%) in a statewide caucus.

Among 400 Democrats, former Sen. John Edwards (29%) edges out Sen. Barack Obama (23%) and Sen. Hillary Clinton (21%) in a statewide caucus; Gov. Bill Richardson trails at 10%.

 

Comments

Is anyone else completely surprised at this turnaround for Gov. Romney in both Iowa and N.H., at least according to two recent polls? Further, it looks like we may have a legitimate fourth contender for the Democratic nomination: Gov. Richardson is now polling in double digits in both Iowa and N.H.
This should get interesting, to say the least.

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Rob:

It looks like Romney may soon be the GOP frontrunner.

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Gary Kilbride:

That Des Moines Register poll does not include Fred Thompson or Newt Gingrich. That accounts for Romney's big lead, in comparison to other polls from the same time period. Chris Bowers on MyDD probably put it best, that Romney nabs the sizable Anyone But McCain or Giuliani vote, when Thompson and McCain are absent.

However, when looking at the February 5 calendar and the polling among the major states in play on that date, I don't see how Giuliani loses frontrunner status. The most important electoral states have always been his best states, and for logical reasons. That's why several sites evaluating power ratings for the GOP nomination have had Giuliani on top dating to last year, even when the national polls didn't necessarily agree.

I saw a list of GOP issue priority a few days ago. Abortion came in 10th, named by only 36%. Immigration was first followed by terrorism. But might have been a reader response poll, not necessarily scientific.

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West Allen:

Voters in Iowa and New Hampshire are seeing for themselves what those who know and carefully study all of the 2008 presidential candidates have discerned: Governor Mitt Romney is the superior candidate. He's the most competent, most qualified, most intelligent and most prepared to serve as President of the United States in 2008. He's a man of character, conviction and wisdom. He's a proven leader and world-class executive who has been battle-tested in the free market's truest crucible: Wall Street. What's more, he's well spoken, honest, and, in what may be the greatest indicator of deportment, an exemplary father and husband. In short, he's an American hero in an age that suffers from a paucity of such men.

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West Allen:

Voters in Iowa and New Hampshire are seeing for themselves what those who know and carefully study all of the 2008 presidential candidates have discerned: Governor Mitt Romney is the superior candidate. He's the most competent, most qualified, most intelligent and most prepared to serve as President of the United States in 2008. He's a man of character, conviction and wisdom. He's a proven leader and world-class executive who has been battle-tested in the free market's truest crucible: Wall Street. What's more, he's well spoken, honest, and, in what may be the greatest indicator of deportment, an exemplary father and husband. In short, he's an American hero in an age that suffers from a paucity of such men.

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spence:

West, when you clamp down that hard it begins to hurt. If you are going to lay astroturf, at least learn how not to write like a flack. Or a brainwashed Mormon reciting "I know this church is true" at testimony meeting.

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Jim Pagenstardt:

Ron Paul won 94% of the vote on MSNBC after the debate the other night; on Fox he was ahead until the very end, when he came in a close second to Romney. I'm very curious as to why he wasn't even mentioned on these polls. Perhaps these "tin foil hat" people who say there's some conspiracy against him aren't so crazy after all.

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Darel :

Ron Paul has won every major poll... Paul's name wasn't even mentioned in over five recent state polls....

Ron Paul will have more cross voters then any other candidate and he is adored by real conservative republicans.

As a former banker who understands the lies of the economic system I can only vote for Paul.

I challenge Mitt to a 1:1 debate with Paul viewed in prime time. Mitt will falter and Paul will win!

If Mitt was a real gentlemen then he would have noted he lost the polls and told the truth to the audience of 60 Min. No, he claimed air time based on lies of the press.

Me: I'm a 40 yr. old Republican who has voted republican for years. I own a small growing company and adding 10 new employees.

My promise: I will vote for Paul and give him 110% support. If Paul doesn't obtain the republican nomination I will renounce my party affiliation and move to independent.

People who love our country need to get behind Paul and know the real issues. Paul will eliminate the IRS, Real ID Act, etc. He will secure our borders and restore constitutional rule. The other candidates are phony and will not create real change.

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