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POLL: Des Moines Register/Selzer Iowa Survey


A new Des Moines Register Iowa Poll (Dem story, Rep story, results, preference by gender/age, candidate liabilities, final choice, best president, methodology and question wording) of registered voters in Iowa who say they definitely or probably will attend the Iowa caucus (conducted 10/1 through 10/3 by Selzer & Co) finds:

  • Among 405 Republicans, former Gov. Mitt Romney leads former Sen. Fred Thompson (29% to 18%) in a statewide caucus; former Gov. Mike Huckabee trails at 12%, former Mayor Rudy Giuliani at 11%, Sen. John McCain at 7%, Rep Tom Tancredo at 5%.
  • Among 399 Democrats, Sen. Hillary Clinton narrowly leads former Sen. John Edwards (29% to 23%) in a statewide caucus; Sen. Barack Obama trails at 22%, Gov. Bill Richardson at 8%, Sen. Joe Biden and 5%.
  • All other candidates trail at less than five percent each.

View all Iowa Caucus poll data at Pollster.com:

AIATopDems190.png AIATopReps190.png
Democrats Republicans

 

Comments
Anonymous:

You misstate things in an attempt to make the race seem closer in Iowa than it actually is among the democrats. One point is a narrow lead. Six points, outside the M of E, is not a narrow lead.

The Des Moines Register poll actually is pretty consistent with the latest ARG numbers, which works against those who constantly trash ARG's numbers.

Edwards is practically living in Iowa. Obama has spent millions in advertising in Iowa. Hillary just started on tv and hasn't spent nearly as much time there. Yet she has pulled ahead. What does this say about what will happen when she actually starts heavy advertising and starts doing her own bus tours.

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BDM:

This is a narrow lead within the MOE
THE moeIS 4.8%

Clinton could be anywhere from 33.8 to 24.2
Edwards could be from 27.8 to 19.2
Obama could be from 26.8 to 18.2

Thus if Clinton is at 24.8 this would be less than 27.8 or 26.8.

On the other hand she could have A 14 pt lead.

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Joseph McGarry:

Hello Iowa !!! My name is Joseph McGarry and I am from Hazleton Pennsylvania. I hve become a C-Span "Student" approximately eight years back and follow "National Politics" very closely as a "Hobbie"!!! I am a "Pro Life Democrat" who is "Progressive" yet I'd consider myself to be a "Conservative/Moderate" in many things. I'd certainly vote "Republican" if I believed it the "Thing To Do"!!! I guess that really makes me an "Independent" and I think we all just might consider that. All of this said, of the choices we have been left with in the Democratic Party, My "Intellegence", my "Heart&Gut" tell me "Senator Joseph Biden" for "President"!!! I have no dog in this hunt. I am and have been a "William Jefferson Clinton Fan"!!! I like all our candidates. I like the "Message" of Edwards for "The Middle Class" who has taken a pounding under this administration. I like Hillary a lot for Health-Care and standing up for all of us. like O'Bama's talent and I like Richardson and Dodd and even Dennis Kuscinich is a fine man. It saddens me that Biden, Richardson, and Dodd are not first tier. Any CEO job in the Nation and they would "Be There"!!! I make a "Sports Analogy" that may or may not fit here, but If i were considering "WHO IS AT THE TOP OF THEIR GAME IN TENNIS" Id tell you "Fedderer", "Roger Fedderer"!!! In the "GAME" of Politics and it is a "GAME" O'Bama is young, Edwards inexperienced and a "Trial Lawyer" only, Hillary unliked by many, the man who is the "Chairman Of The Senate Foreign Relations Committee" the man who has worked inch by inch, foot by foot is "Joe Biden"!!! Because he is age 65 and does not have a 40 to 50 year old gq magazine appeal is not why I am hiring a "President"!!! This man talks to "Foreign Leaders" knows "The Game" and we "Americans" don't even consider his "Brains", "Experience" and I would argue "VISION"!!! From his personal life to his life of service, Joe adapts and overcomes like a "Marine"!!! And we are going to "roll The Dice" and lose to McCain, Juliani, or Huckabee or Romni with a "College Prep" Candidate!!!!!!!!!! Iowa, "Biden", "Biden", Biden"!!! JM.

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Robert Edward Johnson, Normal IL:

Reasons Ron Paul wlll take third on the third in Iowa:

1) He is undersampled just as McCain and Giuliani (and probably Thompson) are oversampled. A Fox poll in NH showed that Ron Paul voters are 8 to 1 on over $50K versus under $50K, radically different from the even splits for Huckabee, Fred, and Mitt, not to mention Rudy and McCain whose supporters were majority under $50K.

Given the Fox poll, which voters do you think are using cell phones or if they have land lines are out to dinner or working late and thus aren't likely to get sampled, and which don't own a cell, have very few minutes they can afford if they do, and are more likely sitting next to their land line instead of going out to dinner or working late with no caller id and no voice messageing (costs too much per month)?

2) If you look at 'likely GOP voters' you're looking at folks who probably support the war which why they still were voting in GOP primaries in 2004 and even 2006. Ron Paul folks are EX-GOP coming back (e.g., Reagan Democrats and Libertarians) or folks who've NEVER voted GOP.

3) Simply in a naive correction for the poor performance of the Selzer poll in predicting Ron Paul's totals in the Iowa Straw Poll - Selzer predicted 2% even though he actually got 9.1% a week later (even WITH his wife having a heart attack the day of the Straw Poll!) - would either add 7% or multiply by 4.5 or perhaps doubling the current Selzer poll which is around 6 or 7 percent. Adding seven or doubling gives a figure well above Thompson, McCain, or Rudy, and gives Ron Paul third place.

4) Once he gets third in a state where three of the top four GOPers in the Iowa Straw Poll didn't believe in evolution, look for him to WIN in NH, where he won BOTH straw polls there by a large factor.

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