July 2, 2008
POLL: Strategic Vision Florida, Georgia
The web site Political Wire published a sneak peak of at two new Strategic Vision (R) polls yesterday. While they included no information about survey dates and sample sizes, the reported the top-line numbers:
Florida: McCain 49%, Obama 41%, Barr 1%
Georgia: McCain 51%, Obama 43%, Barr 3%
We will update this entry (and our charts) with the results as soon we have the official release from Strategic Vision.
I corrected my typo and entered the numbers now posted by StrategicVision for Georgia and Florida. As of this writing the links for the releases appear to have the wrong release date (06/02/08) but list field dates of June 27-29 and a report different percentage for Obama in Florida (41%) than what PoliticalWire reported yesterday (43%).
By Mark Blumenthal on July 2, 2008 11:13 AM | Permalink
Comments
This must be driving McCain crazy. How is he supposed to know which poll is more accurate? Should he just assume the historical norm and not spend much time in Florida? Does he need to commit precious money in Florida to backstop it from a well-funded Obama push? Right now, I don't think McCain has much choice but to assume the best case scenario and pour money into Michigan and Pennsylvania. I do believe that Rasmussen called Florida pretty accurately in 2004 (I can't access their site from work because it is blocked as "political")
So, since the start of June, we have polls in Florida saying:
Obama by 4, Obama by 5, McCain by 8, McCain by 7, Obama by 2, and McCain by 6.
So we have 3 polls for Obama and 3 polls for McCain (with 2 total polling firms for McCain)
And many of these have been outside the MoE as well. What is going on in the state? If this is just difference in methodology, why aren't we seeing such swings in other states?
Mike_in_CA - you're right. The actual SV website says 49-41.
Both polls indicate that Barr is not yet a factor.
From what I can gather, Rasmussen is using traditional party weights, while the others aren't. I'm not saying that's good or bad. It could be either, really. That's just what I've picked up.
I'd like to see SurveyUSA do another Florida poll. So far, we have ARG/PPP/Quinnipiac with Obama ahead and Ras/SV with McCain ahead. Since ARG is essentially worthless, that leaves us pretty even....
the problem with FL is that it is so diverse that it is impossible to get an accurate poll out of the state.
I dont think we will know anything until the votes are counted.. its a quirky state to poll and there is a lot of new people moving into the state.
I think polls like New York and California which many expect to go Obama are continually polled for their overwhelmingly large populations; Florida included. It would be nice if alot of these polls would start including regional analysis from states like Florida, Ohio, Virgina, and PA that are battle grounds and large.
If Obama campaigns and spends money in FL, that could force McCain to spend resources there. Obama does not have to win FL to win the election - McCain does.
Well, Barr was only included in this polling not Nadar. Nadar should get some votes from Obama and Barr should get some from McCain. I realize Nader will not be on the ballot in Florida which is just as ridiculous as having Barr on it. That being said I think McCain should be pretty happy with these numbers since he is the only candidate the could lose votes to a third party in this state.
But who knows with all these Florida polls, these inconsistant polls are great for Obama. Even if McCain is really up by 8 percent these polls will get him worried and force him to spend money there. McCain needs Florida, Obama doesn't.
Mark, I think there's a typo on the Florida numbers. Should be 49-41.
It seems like there are two competing theories on how to poll Florida. The Ras/SV theory that is putting McCain about 8 points ahead, and the Quinnipiac/PPP theory putting Obama ahead by single digits (2-4). I think we need a Mason-Dixon, or a new SUSA or something!
Posted on July 2, 2008 11:30 AM