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POLL: Strategic Vision Florida (8/22-24)


Strategic Vision (R)
8/22-24/08; 1,200 LV, 3%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

Florida
McCain 49, Obama 42, Barr 1
(June: McCain 49, Obama 41, Barr 1)

 

Comments
Sergei Groinka:

Great.... Now Florida should turn purple... Obama/Dems are not going to win Florida for the next 20-30 years.

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rdw4potus:

A 62% majority of Florida residents favor oil exploration and drilling off the coast of Florida? In a state where 90% of residents live within 20 miles of open water, on the biggest NIMBY issue in recent memory?!? Did this poll only include numbers in the 863 area code?

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Stillow:

A huge majoirty in Florida want offshore drilling...not even close.

And a "HUGE" majority do not view Bush as a classic conservative....no surprise since he is not one.

FL lookin good for McCain.

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KipTin:

Does not seem like Florida is moving at all, even after the inundation of Obama ads.

Here are results in McCain's and the GOP favor:

Do you favor an immediate withdrawal of the United States military forces from Iraq, within the next six months?
Yes 40%
No 47%
Undecided 13%

Do you favor or oppose increased exploration and drilling of natural gas off the shores of Florida?
Favor 62%
Oppose 27%
Undecided 11%

Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Charlie Crist's job performance?
Approve 59%
Disapprove 30%
Undecided 11%

So the Repubican governor is doing GREAT. And Floridians overwhelmingly support off shore oil drilling. And a majority do not favor immediate withdrawal from Iraq. That may explain why McCain maintains his lead. And only 8% undecided in this poll which is comparatively low when compared to undecideds in other state polls that are almost double undecided. 7 points is a big lead in a state like Florida.

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Another Mike:

IIRC, Strategic Visions has a significant Republican bias. Take everything they publish with a large grain of salt.

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KipTin:

Hey... rdw4potus... you must be confusing Florida with California, because the polls have consistently shown that Floridians support offshore drilling. One reason may be that Cuba has issued drilling leases, which some are 50-60 miles off Florida's shoreline in Cuba's territorial waters.

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freedomreigns:

Strategic Vision has a horrible reputation as a pollster. This is not in line with any other polls for FL. McCain is up by 1-3 in FL. Ignore this outlier by a bad pollster.

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KipTin:

Alert: Any poll that shows McCain ahead of Obama has a "Republican" bias. Well, technically yes... the voters favor McCain.

So where is that GOP bias in the following poll froma an equivalent time period?:
Quinnipiac 8/17-24/08 1069 LV
McCain 47/Obama 43/Other 2/Undecided 8 with 3% sampling error.

Note that both polls compare favorably with one another.

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KipTin:

Please, please quit calling polls "outliers" when you evidently have NO idea what an outlier entails. This poll is NOT atypical of other polls in Florida. I have a new term for people who cavalierly dismiss polls as "outliers" when they do not like the results... it is a "semantrix" word that I spell "outliar."

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thoughtful:

Well this is almost an identical result as a month ago, from this organization.

Unless one can see the crosstabs, the voter model, weighting it is wishful thinking to rely on these types of polls.

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KipTin:

OK... Number 9 reason to dismiss poll because McCain is ahead of Obama (i.e. No crosstabs). Number 10 was "outliar." I am going to do a Letterman-like countdown to show how silly some of these "excuses" are. And then I will apply them to polls showing Obama ahead. Maybe by then this garbage will stop, or at least slow down.

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Dave:

Well this poll IS from Strategic Vision (R) so i'd say we have to account for their 5-10 point R bias... so it looks like its a tie.

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KipTin:

Oops, I forgot to add "Republican bias" as a reason. Only 7 more to go to make the 10-Reason List.

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rdw4potus:

KipTin,

Strategic Vision polls are consistently within the MOE of other polls, but also consistently on the R side of the MOE. Either all the other pollsters are inaccurately D biased, or Strategic Vision has a very small R bias. Oh, and they self identify as a republican pollster so they actually do have an ideological bias. I'm not sure that necessarily explains their polling result, but it's not like they claim to be impartial or anything...

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faithhopelove:

Not surprisingly, this partisan pollster (SV) has McCain with a larger lead in FL than did the non-partisan Q (which released a FL poll yesterday showing McCain up 4 there). For this calendar year, SV ranked 16th among pollsters through May 7th; Q ranked 14th.

According to SV, McCain maintains a lead in FL; Obama narrows the gap by 1. Without looking at crosstabs, it's difficult to evaluate this poll. How has SV weighted it? Are they anticipating increased turnout among African-Americans and young people over 2004? If not, then they are likely under-estimating Obama's support, as he appeals to both groups. Moreover, the AP has reported that over 80,000 new black Democrats have registered to vote in FL since the start of this calendar year.

The questions this poll asks before asking respondents for whom they plan to vote reveal its partisan bias. A question about Iraq is phrased in such a way that it sounds more like Obama's position than McCain's, but skewed to suggest that Obama's plan is unrealistic and irresponsible (it speaks of withdrawal from Iraq, but within 6 months instead of 16 months). Then a question is asked about an issue that currently favors McCain--off-shore oil drilling. A Democratic pollster might instead ask, "Are you in favor of the development of alternative energy sources?" By the time respondents are asked to pick a president, they have been pushed toward McCain. For all of the reasons named, the Q poll is more likely to be accurate than this SV poll.

Today, Obama reaches out to FL voters by having two FL representatives speak at the Dem convention--Castor from the Tampa area, and Wexler from South Florida. In addition, Hillary (who is popular in FL) might have helped Obama win some FL voters with her speech last night. Biden may also help Obama there (eventually), as FL has a large number of seniors and Roman Catholics, and Biden is both. He also has some FL connections. (Speaking of running mates, while conventional wisdom suggests that Crist would seal the deal for McCain in FL, this poll indicates that the majority of FL voters do not want him to be their VP.)

This poll was in the field partly before the Biden announcement and entirely before the Dem convention. Future polls will be more telling. For now, FL remains a second-tier pick-up opportunity for Obama.

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Stillow:

When PPP (D) releases a poll I see a lot of Dems on here think its "valid"....seems to me everytime a poll is released on this site that doesn't favor your guy, by reflex you find why its not legit.....both sides do it.

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faithhopelove:

KipTin:

1) You have previously complained about commenters using the term "outlier." Commenters have responded by questioning whether or not there is one accepted definition of this term. Please direct us to the source of your definition.

2) Are you suggesting that a poll's weighting does not influence its results?

3) Why do you not believe a poll has a bias when the pollster producing it admits this bias?

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faithhopelove:

Stillow:

I agree that both PPP (D) and Strategic Vision (R) are biased--and to their credit, they admit as much.

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Tzal:

Strategic Vision is slightly better than average:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/search/label/pollster%20ratings

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faithhopelove:

Gallup has just posted its tracker for today--Obama +1, a 3-point swing from yesterday. I believe this poll was completed before Hillary's speech last night.

Also, Gallup has posted an article explaining that the reason the race is close is that McCain has solidified his base, while Obama has not. McCain needs Obama to fail to solidify his base in the coming days and weeks. See:
http://www.gallup.com/home.aspx

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KipTin:

"Interactive Statitics for the Behavioral Sciences" Pepper Williamsm Ph.D, Sinauer Assoc, Inc., Sunderland, Massachusetts. Pages 59, 376.

Statistical definition: "atypical (i.e. so much higher or lower than the rest of the scores")

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Stillow:

How about the Congress at 11 percent approval....

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Louis:

Actually Stratigic Vision ranks in about the middle for pollster induced error according to 538, Just behind PPP and just ahead of Insider Advantage. The numbers here are 49-42. The Florida numbers on this site are 47-44 rounded. there is no statiscally significant difference. Though there may be a slight trend for Stratigic Vison to be slighty on the high side for McCain.
Frankly though I think most people would be suprised if Obama carried Florida.

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player:

A lesson from psychology 100. People make bad scientists. Why? Because they always look for confirmations of their beliefs. Scientists do the reverse.

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player:

There seems to be a different political atmosphere this morning. Hillary might have closed the door on the rift in the party last night. If she did then the polls should reflect it in the next few days. It could be bad news for McCain.

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Stillow:

Well, Bill still needs to talk tonight. Hillary gave a good speech geared towards her supporters....let's wait to see what Bill says......most people will fall asleep during Biden's speech.

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Tybo:

"most people will fall asleep during Biden's speech."
will it go on for 8 hours. That guy can talk!

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marctx:

Did anyone read that very scary article by Mark B about David Plouffe? Basically Obama says screw the polls because we don't need to convince voters to vote for Obama because we are going beat you with 600,000 AA in Florida???? That seams very racist and Un-American. America needs to wake up and do something to stop this guy from stealing this election.

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Stillow:

Obama's arrogance is going to be his downfall. I think after Hillary last night some Dems have buyer's remorse. I think Bill tonight will focus on Hillary. Hillary's speech was all about her, with the occasional mention of Obama....but she did not endorse him last night. She didn't speak to his qualifications.... Her speech was all about her. Obama may have bitten off more than he can chew. I think Bill will do the same, all about Hillary with a nice thing or two to say about Obama.

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Another Mike:

Some people seem to be misinterpreting 538's pollster rankings. The pollster induced error is how much, on average, the pollster is off (not counting the margin of error). It does NOT attempt to measure whether the error is consistently one way or another. Among all of the pollsters, SV is one of, if not the, worst in CONSISTENTLY erring in favor of the Republican candidate, while other pollsters tend to get things wrong on both sides of the political aisle. It's simply a fact that SV tends to favor Republicans more than almost all other pollsters.

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Another Mike:

Did anyone read that very scary article by Mark B about David Plouffe? Basically Obama says screw the polls because we don't need to convince voters to vote for Obama because we are going beat you with 600,000 AA in Florida???? That seams very racist and Un-American. America needs to wake up and do something to stop this guy from stealing this election.

OMG! You mean AAs also get to vote and their votes may make a difference in determining the election outcome?! That would be "stealing" the election as you say. Perhaps, AAs should only count 3/5 of a vote? Sounds like a compromise you would support.

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jradMIT:

Player, no truer words have ever been spoke about people and scientist, why is math the hardest subject for the most people? Because the is one definite answer or set of answers. From a month ago Obama has gained an insignicant point, in other polls he has gained but doesn't really put the state in play and is a 2nd tier pickup. Is McCain going to advertise after the conventions there? He can probably hold off and wait a month because he has enough of a cushion.

Has anyone thought about what a major hurricane making landfall next week will do? It could be a complete unexpected event that could move polls one way or the other.

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jradMIT:

marctx, maybe you dont have a problem with race, but a person with a problem with race would say the same exact thing.

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faithhopelove:

KipTin:

Thank you for answering one of my three questions--"outlier" means "atypical." Isn't that how commenters here have used this word?

I notice that your first post commenting on this poll failed to mention a number of things, including: (1) the fact that the poll was conducted by a Republican pollster; (2) the fact that the poll was in the field partly before the Biden announcement and entirely before the Democratic convention; (3) the fact that it actually shows movement in Obama's direction since the last SV poll (albeit only slight movement); (4) the fact that the two issues questions (on the Iraq war and energy) use right-wing frames; (5) the fact that these questions were asked before respondents were asked to choose between McCain and Obama; and (6) the fact that while Crist has high approval ratings, another question found that the majority of FL voters do not want him as their VP.

None of us is completely objective; but your analysis of this poll is not even semi-objective.

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faithhopelove:

Pollster ratings to put in conversation with the analysis at 538 can be found here:
http://www.surveyusa.com/index.php/surveyusa-report-cards/

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Basil:

marctx:

Large AA turnout is "stealing" an election? Wow!

The 2000 election was stolen in Florida, and not by anything as patriotic as high voter turnout.

Please continue to campaign for Obama. You're doing fine.

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Mike_in_CA:

glad to see some posters on here finally hitting back against the absurd marctx.

marctx, since you know so little of international affairs (as we discussed on a thread last night), you might be surprised to learn that other countries have *Gasp* almost 100% turnout! Among the Voting age Population (not just registered voters). The fact that in the US we have only 50% turnout among the Voting age pop. is appalling. We are supposedly the birthplace and "spreader" or Democracy to the world right? Why doesn't everyone vote.

And why is it so bad that Obama wants to register new voters? Get a freakin grip. At long last, you have exposed your racist self. White people have this way of saying that blacks voting for blacks MUST be racist, but whites voting for whites is just the way it is, huh.

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Clint Cooper:

Um, this is a Republican pollster that NEVER releases its cross-tabs. It might as well be toilet paper.

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Clint Cooper:

BTW, one of the reasons people here tout the PPP polls is because of their incredibly good track record. SV's record is a steaming pile of horse turds.

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cinnamonape:

Obama is merely stating that AA's will vote at levels that Whites of their age group have traditionally done. Given that the Republicans have never said that Whites should be "devalued" because they turned out at higher levels than minorities it seems that complaining about equitable participation seems to be a bit hypocritical...and indicative of fear.

Are Republicans realistic saying that voting should be equilibriated by racial make-up, age, sex, or other factors in a community? If so that wouldn't help them at all. Remember that doing so would still produce higher votes by AA's, young people, and other groups not previously considered Likely Voters.

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thoughtful:

Stillow

You must be deaf. hillary's 5th sentence was "i am proud to be a supporter of Barrack Obama". She extolled her supporters time again to support and elect Barrack Obama. She meant it too!

Bill will tell us tonight that Barrack Obama is ready and will be a great President. He is going to leave mcCain out to dry. Watch, listen and hear!

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cinnamonape:

Comparing Strategic Visions prior results with those other polls in the weeks just prior to and after their survey in June...and you'll find that they were suggesting a lead about twice to four times that of other polls. Most of those polls suggested a "dead heat"...while Strategic Visions, as in this poll, indicated a substantial McCain lead. That suggests that their modelling of LV's is biased in favor of McCain vis-a-vis other pollsters. In some cases their outcome fell beyond the MOE's of other pollsters.

Given the fact that the same pattern with other polls is suggested, with other polls showing a very close race...I'd suggest that, given the reality that SV hasn't changed...the race remains close in Florida, as judged by traditional Likely Voters.

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djneedle83:

The key tripping state in this election is Colorado. If Obama carries all the Kerry states and wins, Iowa (highly likely), New Mexico (highly likely), and takes Colorado (likely) then Obama wins the electoral college 273 to 265.

The convention will be the difference in Colorado on election day. Without the convention Mccain wins Colorado by 2%-3% percentage points. In my opinion, Obama wins the state by 3%-4% on election night. The hispanic vote will encounter for 15% of the electorate (voting 2 to 1 in favor of Obama) and Obama will garner 44%-48% of the White vote.

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djneedle83:

The key tripping state in this election is Colorado. If Obama carries all the Kerry states and wins, Iowa (highly likely), New Mexico (highly likely), and takes Colorado (likely) then Obama wins the electoral college 273 to 265.

The convention will be the difference in Colorado on election day. Without the convention Mccain wins Colorado by 2%-3% percentage points. In my opinion, Obama wins the state by 3%-4% on election night. The hispanic vote will encounter for 15% of the electorate (voting 2 to 1 in favor of Obama) and Obama will garner 44%-48% of the White vote.

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Stillow:

You guys are all really jumping on marctx. He is not a republican, he is a Hillary supporter based on all his comments. I don't think he meant to say what he said, it came out wrong I am sure.

@mike

As a Conservative I will admit freely to you, if everyone in this country voted, the repubs would never win a race......ever!

@thoughtful

are you serious? That whole speech was about her, she had to mention Obama a few times. She did what she aimed to do, appear to come out strong for Obama, but making her base ticked off that she was not the nominee or at least the VP...her base will see Biden tonight and after yawning they are going to sit there and say what the heck, why is Hillary not the vp..........she is still wanting an Obama loss so she can walk in and be the hero in 2012. She has to appear to support obama strongly because she will need AA support in 2012 if she wants to win. The dems can't win without heavy AA support. But as you and I often do, we will disagree on this.

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Clint Cooper:

Hey djneedle83, I like the way you think.

I think it will look like this:

................Obama...McCain...Other
White (78%)..44%.....54%...2%
Hisp. (14%)..67%.....30%...3%
Black (5%)...95%.....3%....2%
Other (3%)...50%.....48%...2%

Which results in:
Obama 49.17%
McCain 47.91%
Other 2.92%

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Clint Cooper:

btw, my previous prediction was for Colorado, not Florida.

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Stillow:

@djneedle83

I totally agree, Colorado is going to be the main one to watch. Though I still think the GOP has a shot at turning Mich with the right VP pick and campaign there. Mich is in real bad shape, it was the only state in the country last year that had povery level go up and wages go down. And the state has been dominated by Dems for a long long time, the people there may be ready to try soemthing new if the GOP brings in the right message and messenger.

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thoughtful:

Stillow

You and I are in broad agreement,I am serious. The audience is a much wider one than the polically obsessed and interested.

Its all in the bounce.

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Clint Cooper:

Well Stillow I agree Michigan will be close, but I think if you look at where all the new voter registrations are coming from, they are coming from Detroit. On top of that Michigan is around 15% black which could make it difficult for McCain no matter who he chooses. It will be definitely a state to watch though.

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Clint Cooper:

Well Stillow I agree Michigan will be close, but I think if you look at where all the new voter registrations are coming from, they are coming from Detroit. On top of that Michigan is around 15% black which could make it difficult for McCain no matter who he chooses. It will be definitely a state to watch though.

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thoughtful:

Stillow

You and I are in broad agreement,I am serious. The audience is a much wider one than the polically obsessed and interested.

Its all in the bounce, if it is over 9% eg 49-40, its going to be very tough for McCain to come back - on the night it will be over as soon as Ohio and Virginia calls.

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Clint Cooper:

marctx...

Encouraging people to show up and vote for you isn't called "stealing" an election. However, rigging votes electronically with Diebold machines is.

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Mike_in_CA:

Stillow, thanks for the honest response! I do respect you for manning up and saying that because, we all know, it's true. The Republicans (and now, I'm not saying you condone this at all) have long run campaigns on wedge issues, and voter intimidation. I honestly think that the Republican party could have some decent ideas, but for too long they've been the party of scumbags. Perhaps a devastating nationwide loss is the only thing to help them right their ship?

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Stillow:

@Clint Cooper

Or having a large amount of dead voters vote for you is also stealing it.

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JR:

i think obama wins michigan. the rumor right now is that mccain will pick either tom ridge or pawlenty. ridge does not give him michigan, it makes penn closer but i think obama wins it too. pawlenty doesn't get you minn and i don't think he helps you in any other state. my only question is if mccain picks ridge what will that do to the evangicals do they stay home like 2000 or do they suck it up?

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Stillow:

@Mike_in_CA

I think both sides have wedge issues that favor them and they both use them. My reasons for saying the GOP would never win if everyoen voted are probably different than yours, but the end result is the same, they would never win.
Part of me wants them to take a beating this time around like the Dems did in 94. They used to be the party of smaller g'ment, fiscal restraint, etc. Now they spend like drunken sailors while cutting taxes...a moronic combo. I can honestly tell you this, I am voting for McCain to help assure Obama is not elected. If Hillary was the nominee, while I would not vote for her, I would also not vote for McCain, I would stay home. My vote is an anti Obama vote, sad but true. I actually trust Hillary much more on terrorism and foreign policy than I do Obama. They are both domestic liberals and I oppose them both on that...

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Stillow:

He will not pick Ridge. He needs a pro life conservative. He picks Ridge he will shatter the base which is just now beginning to consolodate behind him. I thought at first it was Romney, but I think he is seriously looking at Governor Palin of Alaska and Senator Hutchison from Texas.

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illinoisindie:

@Mike
Wow way to call out Marctx…. Funny the more people talk the more you know their real motives. He/She will need to change their ID before anyone will take him/her seriously again…..HaHa , thanks for the good laugh.

OMG! You mean AAs also get to vote and their votes may make a difference in determining the election outcome?! That would be "stealing" the election as you say. Perhaps, AAs should only count 3/5 of a vote? Sounds like a compromise you would support.

HAHAHAHA...still laughing...my stomach hurts....

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thoughtful:

My interpretation of the polls, and ground strategy is that McCain won't come close. Indeed Obama will exceed 300 EVs.

If we take the state polls after adjusting for new voter registration, combined with ground game, Obama is well ahead.

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Stillow:

I remembe rhearing the same thing in 2004 about new voter registration and enthusiasm by young people.....Bush still won by over 3 million votes. Don't forget a nice percentage of the Democratic party is still made up of Reagan Democrats....who are conservative traditionalists. When the 527's start coming out with the Wright, God Damn America stuff and the Ayers bombing of the Pentagon.........don't assume those Reagan Dems will put up with that.

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player:

By reading some of these blog entries, I sense that some people are confused as to what a margin of error represents. There is a quick way to find out. First you take the sampling size. The one above is 1200. You take the square root of 1200. That gives you 34.64. You then divide 1/34.64. This gives you .0288. Multiply this by 100. 2.88 percent is your margin of error. Since 49 minus 42 is 7% which is greater than 2.88%; this polls results is outside the margin of error.

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thoughtful:

I don't think that Americans are going to be suckered by that kind of thing this time round.

In any case the stuff on McCain is directly on McCain not by association with other parties?

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Stillow:

@thoughtful

I know you want to try and make associations worthless, but they do matter, I assure you. Who you choose to hang out with, tells a lot about who you are.

I bet if McCain hung out with KKK members, you would be making a huge deal about it. Obama hanging out with people who clearly hate the country will hurt him a bit if the GOP does is correctly.

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thoughtful:

Stillow have you see the latest Nevada and western polls?

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Stillow:

@thoughtful:


No. I haven't been paying much attention to them for the last week or so, not til after the conventions and both bounces take place....

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thoughtful:

Scary, before the bounce!

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Florida Voter:

Florida is in play. This poll is definitely skewed to McCain. It is however McCain's to lose.

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mattn:

FWIW, Mason-Dixon today is 45-44 Obama.

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faithhopelove:

Mason-Dixon, a non-partisan pollster, has just released a poll of FL--Obama 45%, McCain 44%, a statistical dead heat (625 likely voters). It was in the field Monday and Tuesday (more recently than the SV poll), meaning respondents knew about the Biden pick, but also meaning that many if not all of them had not yet heard Hillary's speech last night. Hillary remains popular in FL, and her words may swing more voters there to Obama.

As with the earlier SV poll, Crist is not the pick of the majority of FL voters to be McCain's running mate. Romney is a more popular choice there.

Not surprisingly, McCain runs stronger in north FL and Obama runs stronger in south FL. McCain still has room for growth with his base--good news for him. He probably cannot afford to continue ignoring this state, though. Undecideds (11%) may feel neglected and break heavily for Obama.

This poll makes 6 non-partisan polls in a row that have the race in FL at 4 points or less.

See: http://www.news-press.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080827/NEWS0107/80827047/1075

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faithhopelove:

The crosstabs for the M-D poll are here:
http://www.wesh.com/download/2008/0827/17312639.pdf

Obama has a 1-point lead despite not yet garnering 9 out of 10 African-Americans and 8 out of 10 Democrats. Also, McCain is shown winning the Hispanic vote by a large margin (51%-39%).

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Jeff:

In the crosstabs faithhopelove just linked to, they tested a handful of running mates and Romney tested significantly better than Crist, even among Republicans.

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Jeff:

In the Mason-Dixon crosstabs referenced above, they tested several McCain running mates and Romney came across significantly more beneficial than Crist, even among Republicans.

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Jeff:

Dang, first message did not cancel

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Paul:

In response to djneedle83 --- the weak link with the assumption that Obama wins the Kerry states is New Hampshire. With Kerry states + Iowa + New Mexico + Colorado, Obama needs New Hampshire included or another small electoral state like Montana or Nevada.

As to Florida, very expensive in terms of media buys and time in state. Obama either needs surrogates and a ton of money for media, or else he may just work other states like Virginia, Ohio and Colorado and not worry about Florida.

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faithhopelove:

Paul:

New Hampshire (4 EVs) is definitely McCain's best best to make a blue state red (although he has lost ground in the East--his gains have been in the South and the Midwest). As you say, Obama could cancel-out this loss by flipping either MT (where he has been campaigning the last two days) or NV; other possibilities include AK and ND.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/108037/Candidate-Support-Region.aspx

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Mike In Maryland:

Paul said...
"With Kerry states + Iowa + New Mexico + Colorado, Obama needs New Hampshire included or another small electoral state like Montana or Nevada."

I'm not sure where you learned your math and/or how accurate your observational skills are, but . . .

To outright win the Electoral College, 270 votes are needed. If the EC vote is tied at 269, the election is thrown into the House.

Kerry states = 258 EC votes
Minus New Hampshire (4 EC votes) = 254
Add Iowa (7 EC votes) = 261
Add Colorado (9 EC votes) = 270

New Mexico is NOT needed to get to the EC vote majority if Obama loses New Hampshire but wins Iowa and Colorado.

Montana is NOT needed to get to the EC vote majority if Obama loses New Hampshire but wins Iowa and Colorado.

Nevada is NOT needed to get to the EC vote majority if Obama loses New Hampshire but wins Iowa and Colorado.

If Obama wins the Kerry states (including New Hampshire) plus Iowa, then he needs four additional EC votes to throw the election into the House, and five for an outright win.

Colorado = 9 EC votes
New Mexico = 7 EC votes
Nevada = 5 EC votes
Virginia = 13 EC votes
North Carolina = 15 EC votes
Florida = 27 EC votes
Ohio = 20 EC votes

Looks like McCain has a lot of defense to play, even if he wins New Hampshire.

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faithhopelove:

Kerry won 252 EVs, not 258.

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John:

Actually 251 EVs, an elector from MN voted for Edwards by accident, but your point it taken.

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