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POLL: Strategic Vision Pennsylvania


Strategic Vision (R)

Pennsylvania 4/11 through 4/13
Clinton 49, Obama 40
McCain 49, Obama 39... McCain 47, Clinton 44

 

Comments
Mike_in_CA:

Another 9 point poll. It looks like this race is officially "static".

I predict a Clinton backlash this week that hasn't been seen since Wisconsin. Her ads are horrendous and she has pushed this "bitter" story so far its beginning to make her look absolutely ridiculous. I predict late movement that may just BARELY be picked up by polls next Mon/Tues before the big VOTE!

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Jeff:

Very close to the Rasmussen from earlier today. Obama has been at 40% or 41% in four of the last five polls, and after converging for a few days Prof. Franklin's trendlines look like they're flattening out, with 7 points' separation between the two candidates.

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Jeff:

It may be worth noting that the Strategic Vision poll asked Democratic respondents to make their choice immediately AFTER asking reading Obama's "guns or religion" quote and asking whether they agreed with it.

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Andrew_in_California:

"Strategic Vision (R)

Pennsylvania 4/11 through 4/13
Clinton 49, Obama 40
McCain 49, Clinton 39... McCain 47, Clinton 44"

I'm guessing that's McCain 49, Obama 39 and now two clintons.

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Pat:

My message to Hillary is: keep up the negative attack ads, beer drinking contests and tales of hunting & Tuzla. You look so un-Presidential that I want to puke.

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the_real_truth:

C'mon Pat, Hillary needs to throw back (or sip in her case) shots of whiskey - she's just been handed her ass on a platter by an unknown from Illinois.

I'd be drinking too if I was her. In fact, maybe she has been drinkin heavily these past few months - that would explain a lot of her blunders.

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kingsbridge77:

Do not trust polls by pollsters affiliated with one party. Strategic Vision is a Republican pollster. It may want Americans to think that McCain has a large lead vs. Obama when that's not the reality.

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kingsbridge77:
My message to Hillary is: keep up the negative attack ads, beer drinking contests and tales of hunting & Tuzla. You look so un-Presidential that I want to puke.

And Obama can keep attending a racist church, looking down on small-town people, lying about Kennedy bringing his father to the US, lying about NAFTA, etc.

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I just got polled on this race. I wasn't paying close attention at the beginning and missed the pollster, but the call was based in Denver. Any idea who that might be?

It was legitimate, not a push poll.

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RPerry:

I have been closely watching this site for several months now, and I would just like to comment that I am really pleased with the fact that the comments are much more focussed on the polls, rather than vitriolic attacks from either side. There are still some attacks from both sides, but on the whole it is so much better than it was before the changes were implemented. Thank you pollster.com! And to the people who comment on the site - your comments on and analysis of the polls are really interesting to read - let's try to keep it to that.

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cinnamonape:

Pretty much agree with the earlier posters up above. The poll does look to be flattening out . It looks as if the "elitist" comments have actually reversed the Obama support, but has caused his growth to stagnate. Generally you see a big drop on the people polled Sunday and Monday if the punditry weighs in on the talk shows on Sunday. So the big effect has already happened.

So either the remaining voters will split...keeping it between 7-9 points...or they will return to the previous Obama growth cycle, as suggested by Mike. That might mean Obama could bring it to 5 points if it was simply a matter of winning over those "undecideds". But I suspect a lot of what will happen is whose support is motivated the most.

Will the Obama supporters feel that his campaign is being sullied with the false charge of being elitist? Will Clinton really motivate the deeply religious fundamentalists and pro-NRA types to run to the polls to vote for her as their new "Hillary d'Arc"? I would think most of those highly motivated folks are in the OTHER party, though.

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cinnamonape:

Oh...one more point. The polls showing the widest separation between Obama and Clinton are those with the lowest undecideds...while those with the higher undecideds tend to show a much closer race. That indicates that the respondants who were initially declaring as "undecided" were encouraged to say who they were leaning towards.

What's a bit odd, though, is that you'd have to make almost all of those undecideds into Clinton voters to get results close to what SUSA and ARG actually have. In reality it should be more of a 5-4 or 6-4 split to reflect the general voting public.

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Mike_in_CA:

cinnamonape,

your last comment concerning "pushing the leaners" is something that I have posted about in several other polls' comments. I think your logic is sound. I suspect that leaners are strongly splitting for Clinton because she is "safer" -- which means Obama really has to push WHY they should "risk" voting for him. That remains the challenge for this week.

Speaking of "challenge" for this week, let's just forget about the "bittergate" crap, seriously. I think the polls show that it hasn't resonated, and the race will be decided this week on something else. It will be interesting to watch.

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illinoisindie:

Actually "bittergate" may resound with an effect contrary to the Clinton objective. The comments I hear are more in tune with "pissed off" rather than "bitter". Anyway clinton 6-10% and I defer to the earlier what-if analysis that drags this race on to Indiana... You know there is a reason Americans prefer baseball over cricket...

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mirrormike:

Just signing up, and on my way to bed.

But, I must thank pollster for a season of great work. And while I have a candidate, I also appreciate this as being a forum that doesn't go down the proverbial drain.

Thanx!

M

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As I said on EI (just click on my name for the post) today, this is a push poll:

"Hey, Obama said something controversial, never mind the context. Do you agree? No? Well, will you vote for him? Ohhh, I guess not, huh?"

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