Strategic Vision (R)
Pennsylvania 4/18 through 4/20
Clinton 48, Obama 41
McCain 48, Obama 40... McCain 46, Clinton 42
Without the crosstabs, it's difficult to evaluate any of the recent polls - Zogby, ARG, or Strategic Vision. But I've expected, based on Ohio, that Clinton should begin to pull away in the last three days of the Pennsylvania campaign, and these polls are consistent with that expectation. The question will then be: by what margin does she win? I expected a 5% win, with a 10-12 delegate pickup, as the over/under. I am now expecting her to make the over....
Posted on April 20, 2008 11:32 PM
Post time, people. Last call for PA.
I'm saying 44-56.
Posted on April 21, 2008 2:57 AM
Hard to say, the polls are tightening, 13 for the ARG down from 20, 7 for the Strategic vision down from 9.
However there are a lot of undecideds, so depending on how they break the race could be very close or a blowout.
Posted on April 21, 2008 3:44 AM
I'll go out on a limb and guess that Clinton wins Pennsylvania. Gutsy, I know!
Posted on April 21, 2008 4:00 AM
I'm a Hillary supporter and unfortunately I'm guessing that she's going to lose PA and have to quit. Obama's people did an impressive job setting up here (Hillary didn't even have an office in Western PA until recently). And he's really good at getting all the frat kids into the game. The young student vote is almost all for Obama and his change, and I feel that is being undersampled.
Posted on April 21, 2008 4:09 AM
I know everyone will be tyalking about the oddities in Pennsylvania. But I said that while SUSA tended to be very accurate during their final poll, they were often most off in earlier polls. That's because SUSA converges on the final result after other surveys have already surpassed the differentials. I think SUSA will have one more poll result tomorrow. If it moves further then watch out...close race.
And talk about volatility in a poll be the same organization - take a look at these Indiana results that just went up:
Downs Center/SUSA 4/14-16/08 578 LV 45 50 5
Times/Bloomberg 4/10-14/08 687 LV 35 40 19
SurveyUSA 4/11-13/08 571 LV 55 39 3
That's a 21 point turnaround (-10 for Clinton; +11 for Obama) in a matter of 3 net days!!!! SUSA was the pollster in both instances and there's the same sample size and apparently the same tendency to reduce "undecideds".
Is this the result of the fallout from the Debate? What is going on here? And given that Indiana is neighboring Pennsylvania...could a similar impact be seen in SUSA's poll there?
Posted on April 21, 2008 5:37 AM
Uri, what makes you think Hillary is going to lose PA? I would guess an 8 to 12% win for her. The downside for her is that it is not much of a delegate pickup, and most of her gains will be wiped out in NC.
Posted on April 21, 2008 8:10 AM
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