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POLL: Strategic Vision (R) Florida Primary


Strategic Vision (R): Florida (1/25 through 1/27):

600 Republican LVs (± 4%)

27 McCain
26 Romney
17 Giuliani
15 Huckabee
5 Paul
10 Undecided

600 Democratic LVs (± 4%)

49 Clinton
36 Obama
11 Edwards
4 Undecided

 

Comments
Andrew:

Clinton's advantage increased compared to the latest Strategic Vision poll.
Good news for Hill.

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I just checked out the Florida graph - what is going on with that sharp downward turn for Obama? It looks pretty dramatic. Does the turning point correspond with an event (SC debate) or change in message (race-based stories in the media)? Does anyone break out their numbers by race (white, af-am, latino)? It would be interesting to see if, perhaps as a result of the race stories, support from whites and latinos started to tank while af-am support stayed even or went up (that's my guess). I'd be interested to see if there are sharp gender and age differences as well.

I am complete addicted to this website.

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Martin:

I am also wondering what has happened. For nearly all of January nobody except ARG was polling Obama in the low 20ies and now even they predict 27 % in their last poll. I also don't understand the rise of the Clinton graph, cause again - nobody except ARG polls her over 50%.
Which leads me to my next question - why is ARG polling Clinton in all polls and states way above all the others?

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Jordan Rouss:

The high point in the florida graphs marks the days prior to new hampshire. the drop off coincides with his loss there.

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In my own humble uninformed opinion, what's wacky is that the different pollsters are vastly different from each other.

The important thing to do is to compare apples to apples. That is, sort the data by pollster then date. The trends seem to smooth themselves out showing Obama and Clinton BOTH generally trends UPWARD to EVEN since January 1st (except Rasmussen showing O&C BOTH trending downwards since 1/1):

[Apologies for poor formatting. Read this as DATE CLINTON, EDWARDS, OBAMA]


ARG:
01/25-26/08 60 9 27
01/23-24/08 58 15 20
01/20-21/08 59 14 21
01/04-09/07 30 14 15
09/15-18/07 47 9 19
07/12-15/07 45 9 25
05/04-08/07 45 15 17
02/23-27/07 36 20 14

Datamar:
01/25-27/08 47 14 27
01/05-07/08 40 19 28
12/09-13/07 44 14 20
11/16-21/07 48 13 16
05/14-18/07 24 26 19

IA/MO:
01/15-16/08 42 9 34
01/07 /08 40 9 32
09/06-10/07 36 9 18

Mason-Dixon:
01/21-23/08 47 16 25
11/12-14/07 42 12 15
07/23-26/07 31 12 17

Quinnipiac:
01/24-27/08 50 12 30
01/09-13/08 52 9 31
12/12-18/07 43 19 21
11/26-12/03/07 53 7 17
10/17-22/07 43 12 18
10/01-08/07 51 10 17
09/03-09/07 42 9 13
07/30-08/06/07 43 8 13
07/12-16/07 36 9 14
06/18-25/07 38 8 15
05/24-6/4/07 34 11 16
04/17-24/07 36 11 13
03/21-27/07 36 11 13
02/25-03/04/07 38 6 13
01/29-02/04/07 49 7 13

Rasmussen:
01/26/2008 44 19 25
01/23/2008 51 13 26
01/20/2008 47 12 29
01/09-12/08 48 14 24
12/13/2007 45 14 17
11/18/2007 42 16 17
09/19-20/07 47 11 22
08/13/2007 43 11 24
07/18-19/07 46 13 15

Strategic Vision (R):
01/25-27/08 49 11 36
01/20-22/08 47 12 36
01/11-13/08 45 11 39
12/14-16/07 48 6 31
11/09-11/07 47 8 27
09/21-23/07 44 12 22
08/10-12/07 40 16 20
06/15-17/07 37 20 21
05/11-13/07 37 19 20
03/09-11/07 32 17 22
11/02-04/06 33 10 15
10/29-31/06 32 10 14
10/20-22/06 30 12 10

SurveyUSA:
01/23-24/08 47 12 30
01/20-21/08 56 12 23
01/11-13/08 56 14 23
01/09-10/08 51 11 32
12/15-16/07 53 19 21
12/02-03/07 54 13 24
11/02-05/07 56 14 19

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Daniel T:

Rudy is claiming that the polls seriously underestimate his support because he has been in FL since September and that he has "hundreds of thousands" of abstentee ballots alreay in the bag. I am curious about the extent that polling takes into account abstentee ballots, especially in a state like FL where early voting has been going on since December. According to the state of FL own numbers, more than 400,000 people have *already* voted.

Someone offer a serious response to Rudy's claim that polling under such circumstances is bound to be wrong.

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