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POLL: Strategic Vision (R) Iowa Caucus


A new Strategic Vision (R) statewide survey of likely caucus goers in Iowa (conducted 12/28 through 12/30) finds:

  • Among 600 likely Republican primary voters, former Gov. Mitt Romney runs at 30%, former Gov. Mike Huckabee runs at 28% in a statewide caucus; Sen. John McCain trails at 16%, former Sen. Fred Thompson at 13%.
  • Among 600 likely Democratic primary voters, Sen. Barack Obama runs at 32%, former Sen. John Edwards at 29%, Sen. Hillary Clinton at 27% in a statewide caucus; Sen. Joe Biden trails at 5%.
  • All other candidates receive less than five percent each. The margin of sampling error is 4% for each subgroup.

 

Comments
Paul:

The last month's SV-R polls have been consistent showing Obama ahead ... since the last poll, Obama +2, Clinton -2, Edwards +1. I now have Obama and Clinton running even, pending other last minute polls we may see today and tomorrow.

SV-R for first time in last month has Romney leading Huckabee ... since last poll, Romney +3, Huckabee -1, McCain +2.

I believe one major story which has not been played up in both IA and NH has been Giuliani's drop, in both states very significant. Is this the chicken before the egg ... that is - did he get out when his support started to go south, then he basically left both states, and his support continued to dwindle, and perhaps he hoped he would play the low expectations game? He is now an asterisk in Iowa (running 6th) where he was near 30 in the Spring 2007 and in NH he has lost 23 points (Suffolk poll) since April 2007, now running 3rd or worse. But yet, the national number still has him first. Let's see what happens to the national numbers and the next set of primary state numbers after a poor performance in IA and NH.

The other story could be McCain. He basically left IA and now the media is playing up a possible 3rd place finish, albeit low teens. He played almost his entire bet on New Hampshire, and may have come up looking rosy ... is it possible that he defeats Romney in NH after losing to Romney in IA by 15 to 20 points ... strange business? Or is the McCain story more a media fancy than real. Logic would have Romney's momentum after a 1st or 2nd in IA better than McCain, and he certainly has much more money. But then even if McCain somehow wins NH, as we get closer to Feb 5, the campaign goes national, money and the public relations media machine becomes huge, which favors Romney and Giuliani and certainly not McCain. We shall see.

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