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POLL: Strategic Vision (R) MI & PA Primaries


Two new Strategic Vision (R) statewide surveys of likely voters in Pennsylvania and Michigan find (via Political Wire):

  • Among Republicans in Pennsylvania, former Mayor Rudy Giuliani (at 42%) leads former Sen. Fred Thompson (16%), Sen. John McCain (10%), and former Gov. Mitt Romney (6%) in a statewide primary. Among Democrats, Sen. Hillary Clinton leads Sen. Barack Obama 36% to 25%).
  • Among Republicans in Michigan, Giuliani (at 20%) edges out Romney (15%), McCain and Thompson (both at 14%. Among Democrats, Clinton leads Obama 32% to 25%.

 

Comments
Paul:

Similar to other recent polls, Edwards and McCain poll numbers are dropping. Using the last SV-R Polls (April 20), Edwards has lost 7 points in PA and 6 points in MI. McCain has lost 7 points in PA and 8 points in MI.

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Andrew:

On the question of withdrawal, most in Michigan (54% vs. 33) favor withdrawing troops from Iraq within 6 months.
In PA, similar results (52%-37%).

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when it comes down to it, Romney is going to win Michigan. His father was too popular, his ties are too close, and his appeal is too great in Michigan for him to loose. He is very close without hardly putting in any effort - while being much less known (even in MI) than Giuliani.

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Paul:

As to Romney vs. Giuliani in MI, one key will be where the McCain votes go as he slips and perhaps disappears from first tier of candidates. Another key will be whether Fred Thompson actually announces as a candidate and if over time his numbers increase or stay pat. With Thompson in the race, and if Romney picks up steam, then we are looking at a three way race in MI between Giuliani, Thompson and Romney. As a Feb. 5 primary, MI may prove to be a significant state in the overall campaign.

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Chris S.:

Michigan may actually be a *pre*-Feb. 5th primary state, as state legislators have introduced a bill to move the primary to Jan. 29th, though the parties may agree to hold it on a different date if they wish:

http://www.ballot-access.org/2007/06/27/michigan-bill-for-january-presidential-primary/

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