Pollster.com

Articles and Analysis

 

POLL: Strategic Vision (R) Michigan Republican Primary


A new Strategic Vision (R) statewide survey of 700 likely Republican primary voters in Michigan (conducted 1/4 through 1/6) finds Sen. John McCain leads former Gov. Mitt Romney (29% to 20%) in a statewide primary; former Gov. Mike Huckabee also trails McCain at 18%, former Mayor Rudy Giuliani at 13%, former Sen. Fred Thompson and Rep. Ron Paul both trail at 5%.

All other candidates receive less than five percent each. The margin of sampling error is 4%.

 

Comments
Dan Matyola:

Can McCain have jumped to the lead in Michigan this quickly? What is Strategic Vision's track record?

____________________

David T:

"Can McCain have jumped to the lead in Michigan this quickly?" Remember that he won it in 2000, due in part to Democratic cross-over voters. This year there is no contested Democratic primary in Michigan, so I would expect to see a big cross-over vote again which could be good for McCain or Huckabee, but almost certainly not for Romney.

The fact that this poll was taken *before* New Hampshire makes McCain's showing in it all the more impressive.

As for SV's record, unfortunately I don't know what it is in primaries. In general eelctions, they usually indicate better GOP chances than other polls--not surprisingly, since they are a Republican firm.

____________________

p_lukasiak:

okay... everyone got screwed last week, so lets look at the data... specifically this question...

3. How likely do you think it is that you will change your choice on whom you will vote for before the primary?

Very likely 23%

Somewhat likely 35%

Choice is definite 29%

Undecided 13%

Any reporting on this poll MUST include the fact that less than 30% of the respondents were certain who they would vote for.... and that you might as well roll dice to predict the outcome of this race.

____________________

JGabriel:

Eric Dienstfry: "Sen. John McCain leads former Gov. Mitt Romney (29% to 20%) in a statewide primary; former Gov. Mike Huckabee trails at 18%"

Huh?

McCain leads at 29%, but Romney and Huckabee are well withing the margin of error, statistically tied.

Given that, shouldn't Huck and Rom be described at the same tier? Either both trailing or both not leading? It just seems a strange place to make the distinction, Eric.

(And, no, I'm not accusing you of any bias. Just stating that the distinction of which candidates are 'trailing' should be placed where there is a statistically significant difference between the two.)

____________________

Eric:

JGabriel- I've clarified the post. Hope that helps.

____________________



Post a comment




Please be patient while your comment posts - sometimes it takes a minute or two. To check your comment, please wait 60 seconds and click your browser's refresh button. Note that comments with three or more hyperlinks will be held for approval.

MAP - US, AL, AK, AZ, AR, CA, CO, CT, DE, FL, GA, HI, ID, IL, IN, IA, KS, KY, LA, ME, MD, MA, MI, MN, MS, MO, MT, NE, NV, NH, NJ, NM, NY, NC, ND, OH, OK, OR, PA, RI, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VT, VA, WA, WV, WI, WY, PR