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POLL: Strategic Vision Washington, Pennsylvania (7/25-27)


Strategic Vision (R)
7/25-27/08
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

Washington (800 LV, 3%)
Obama 48, McCain 37
Gov: Gregoire (D-i) 47, Rossi (R) 45 (Oct: Gregoire 47, Rossi 45)

Pennsylvania (1,200 LV, 3%)
Obama 49, McCain 40 (April: McCain 48, Obama 40)

 

Comments
sherman:

Um...the Republican pollster has Obama up by 9 amongst likely voters in PA? Doesn't that kind of put PA out of play for the GOP? Or is this some kind of fake-out to put us all off our guard :)

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Can we have a disclosure project so we can assess how each pollster is constructing their likely voter model? Give credit to Gallup for at least releasing their registered and likely voter universes, and explaining how they got from one to the other, despite the headache it brought them. Perhaps I am just being dense, but I can't find similar transparency for the Strategic Vision and Quinnipiac polls. If Obama is this far ahead with likely voters, imagine his margin among registered.

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Undecided:

Wow... 15% undecided in Washington State between Obama/McCain compared to 8% for Governor (Gregoire/Rossi). Of course, Obama is still going to win Washington, but I am very surprised at the undecided number... especially compared to the 11% undecided in PA.


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carl29:

Probable they didn't press them on their leanings but chances are that if they have done so, more people would have pick Obama than McCain. I just speculating tough.

The thing that strikes me is how bad McCain is underperforming Bush. On the one hand Obama is 5% away from Kerry's support in the state, 53% in 2004, and on the other hand McCain is 9% behind Bush's support, 47% in 2004. Look at McCain's numbers compared to Rossi's. Think about it, there are people decided to pull the lever for the Republican Rossi but not for McCain. Things were not supposed to be this way. I remember that McCain people were selling the idea that he will run stronger than any other previous Republican nominee in that area. So, what happened?

Again, what is wrong with the Governor? I can't imagine how an incumbent Gov. who has served her people for 4 years could be in a statistical dead heat with the challenger. What has she done to have people looking for another "option," Mr. Rossi in this case. Poor lady, she really got problems. Those numbers are not a joke. I hope she takes them very seriously.

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Undecided:

Gregoire has a 48% approval rating... but she is running with a handicap... she is FEMALE. Lots of misogynistic words are thrown her way on a regular basis... Also toward the state's two female senators who fare better on approval (Murray 56% and Cantwell 50%... Note: Murray is a strong supporter of military veterans and Washington State has lots of military bases.) Sexism is alive and well in Washington State no matter how liberal that state may appear.

Additionally (and probably most importantly as related to the date of this poll) the latest flack is being pushed by the anti-anything BIAW (Building Industry of Washington) who is conjoined with Rossi (a real estate developer).

Washington State Indian tribes (29) give to both Democratic party and GOP part campaign funds, but more heavily toward Dems. The BIAW is accusing Gregoire of quid pro quo for denying a gaming compact with the Spokane Tribe in 2005 because it greatly expanded gambling. As a trade-off for the expanded gambling the Spokane Tribe offered revenue-sharing. During the public comment period there was a huge outcry against expanded gambling by the citizens... including the GOP... ergo Gregoire's refusal to sign the pact.

A new Spokane Tribe gaming compact was negotiated and accepted in 2007, with reduced gaming/ without revenue-sharing... and notably no objections from the GOP. But now this is 2008 election year and the BIAW is "reframing" the argument to be "rejection of revenue-sharing in exchange for campaign donations from the tribe."

Note: The other 28 tribes already have gaming compacts and no-revenue sharing. If the Spokane tribe had gotten expanded gambling in exchange for revenue-sharing, than legally all of the other 28 tribes could ask for the same deal... i.e. Washington State would become the new Nevada of the West.

That was kind of a long explanation, but Indian gaming and tribal economic development is also one topic I follow on a regular basis... as well as the plight of major female politicians (Democrat and Republican).

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carl29:


* In my opinion, the Gov. could be hurt for being a woman in the context of a state almost run by women. As a great believer of diversity, I don't see anything wrong with having at least one man in the mix. I really don't like the same group of people running everything, no matter if they are women or men, black or white, hispanics or caucasians.

I don't think that the good people of WA deserve being called misogynist just because she failed to fulfill their expectations. I wouldn't cry misogynism in a state where both Senators are female, democrats by the way, the Gov. is female, a democrat by the way. Why not applying the California model? Both senators are female democrats, so why not having male Republican Gov.? That's what I call balance!! Maybe that's what WA voters want, a little bit of balance, political and gender.

She got the chance and seems that did not deliver. So, let's give someone else the chance.

*However, this topic brings me to one of the reasons I was totally turned off by Hillary's candidacy, the "GIRL POWER" stuff. I really think that comtemporary women, like myself, don't see things through the "misogynist glass," for "the woman" or against "the woman," therefore if you are not for "the woman," you are against women as a whole. Jesus Christ!! That sounds like Bush, with me or against me.

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C.S.Strowbridge:

A 9-point lead in Pennsylvania? Wow.

And that's after McCain has spend $6 million there. That's money wasted.

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Undecided:

I never called the people of Washington misogynistic, but rather misogynistic terms and statements have been regularly used against the Governor, which surely has nothing to do with her performance but are focused on her gender.

Gregoire is only Washington State's second female governor (so plenty of men have had their turn) and the previous governor was Chinese-American. There has actually been more Republican governors in that state than Democrat. The executive officer of King County (Seattle) is African-American, which is significant because the AA population in Seattle is not that large. In fact, Asian Americans far outnumber other minorities. I would say that there has been plenty of diversity. But consider equity instead... There are more women than men, so one should eventually see at least a 50/50 distribution among elected politicians when equity is achieved. Sweden has near equity... and ironically several African nations have surpassed the U.S. in male/female equity.

I find the term "girl power" offensive and not descriptive of women striving for equality. It was only 1920 when women were constitutionally allowed to vote in federal elections. Eleanor Roosevelt was not allowed to vote for her uncle Teddy Roosevelt in 1912 (She was 28 years old.) Eleanor fought for women's rights and human rights all her life.

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carl29:

So what? Can't people pick the guy over the girl? Absolutely!!! They have my blessing at least. If I were they, I would do it. All these old women look pretty hysterical to me. People can vote for whoever they want based on the reason they pick, period. I think that voices like Emily's List, NOW, Geraldine Ferraro, Gloria Steinem jumping on Hillary's bandwagon hurt not only her campaign, but women candidates as a whole.

I don't think that mainstream Americans identify themselves with feminist obsessed with women and power. At least no one that I know, except my husband's 84 year old grand-aunt, cares about feminist agenda. Most rational people, at least younger generations, have arrived to the conclusion that capability has nothing to do with gender. If you "girls" want to blame your failures and shortcomings on gender bias, that's fine with me, but don't expect to get a lot of sympathy from mainstream people, including a majority of women. The days of women burning their bras are over, Thank lord!!!

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carl29:

There are very few things in which I agree with crazy neo-cons, I am myself a little bit conservative/dem. but nothing to do with those people; however they are so right when they call feminists= feminazis. I couldn't agree more. Those women are trying to implement a dictatorship "a la Bush," with us or against us. You better guys start seeing the world and yourselves as they are instead of how your agenda tells you it should be or be perceived. At least this proud woman is gender-blind!!

Whoever is capable, he or she should get the job, period. Get out of the 60's. It's over!!

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carl29:

"...misogynistic terms and statements have been regularly used against the Governor, which surely has nothing to do with her performance but are focused on her gender."

Any proof of this? or Is this one more feminist lie? I imagine you could come up with some statements from those "regularly" thrown at the Gov.

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