Strategic Vision (R)
8/8-10/08; 800 LV, 3%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews
Obama 47, McCain 42
Can McCain win this state???
Posted on August 13, 2008 9:52 PM
This was what I was saying a few polls ago about leading off with questions about Bush? It gives an unfair advantage to Obama. A lot of polls do this.
Posted on August 13, 2008 10:08 PM
Unlikely that McCain has any chance in this state, if they are using a likely voter sample instead of a Registered voter sample this early and Obama still has a five point lead there is no way McCain will win it, because the final voter count will probably be larger than most likely voter models since they scrren out a lot of new voters
Posted on August 13, 2008 11:35 PM
You know I have felt really since the primaries that apart from Illinois virtually all the Mid Western States were in play both blue and red. This is a blue year yet, Racial prejudice will play its part both ways increased Dem AA turn out,and decrease of white Dem vote.
Both Candidates have their weaknesses and I believe in this long campaign with those real imaginary weaknesses well advertised each candidate but particularly Obama will have have extremely committed supporters and other voters who are absolutely against in almost equal numbers.
I don't think McCain quite develops the same "For" commitment, as the polls bear out, but I do believe that there will be an increase on those concerned about his militarism, relationships with lobbyists and age.
These are early days as some of the polls indicate a lot of folks are lean to undecided 25-33 %.
The Conventions may clarify it, The dems looked to have it high Octane. A lot of Senior Repubs giving their's a miss, not The Pres or VP, this may impact with the electorate
Posted on August 14, 2008 4:33 AM
please, oh please, spend money in wisconsin, mr mccain.....you can win it....it's within reach....c'mon, take a chance on some cheeseheads....
Posted on August 14, 2008 8:21 AM
******MASSIVE VOTER FRAUD NOW UNDERWAY******
In swing-state Colorado, the Republican Secretary of State conducted the biggest purge of voters in history, dumping a fifth of all registrations. Guess their color.
In swing-state Florida, the state is refusing to accept about 85,000 new registrations from voter drives – overwhelming Black voters.
In swing state New Mexico, HALF of the Democrats of Mora, a dirt poor and overwhelmingly Hispanic county, found their registrations disappeared this year, courtesy of a Republican voting contractor.
In swing states Ohio and Nevada, new federal law is knocking out tens of thousands of voters who lost their homes to foreclosure.
Posted on August 14, 2008 9:09 AM
Strategic Vision is a Republican pollster and partisan pollsters are generally suspect with their results.
Posted on August 14, 2008 9:18 AM
is that stuff true??? why is it not in the MSM??
Posted on August 14, 2008 9:29 AM
Ohh, gee, marctx, I wonder why the republican press doesn't report it. You mean the same press that let the supreme court annoint Bush in 2000? The same press that didn't question bush and the repubs as they took this country into a bogus war in iraq? The same press that barely uttered a word as bush and the neo-cons shredded the constitution??
Posted on August 14, 2008 10:28 AM
Wisconsin is caving for some reason. i have family there and they are holding down the fort for obama but it's not working as well as it did.
the numbers that cut through every single poll whether it be state wide or national is that dastardly uncommitted which is RISING not falling.
if obama hasn't worked his illusionista charm on you by now..he most likely will never do so.
people are on vacation and as such they are rethinking their vote. around 30-50% consistently pull back from the committed category.
@1magine:if you take a moment away from your
priming the pollster pump with dogma... even you have to address obama's trouble in catching this falling knife.
so i ask you directly to explain sans rhetoric and in lucid terms why the electorate is losing interest and remaining un-decided in larger and larger amounts.
i look forward to your analysis.
@voice99 i thought you were banned. try a cogent argument for once. we would like to see your intelligence at work rather than CAPS!!!
Posted on August 14, 2008 10:32 AM
Well if that stuff is true, maybe HBO can make Recount II. Great movie.
Posted on August 14, 2008 10:36 AM
boskop: In terms that you can understand: - They're not. Mindless talking points aside.
bos - I see that you are in a dark place and I feel for you - but I will not let your insinuations or lies stand. I am no fool - neither are the tens of millions of Democrats who will vote for Obama. In fact, the educated vote (what I believe your kind calls "elitist") votes Obama. The argument that somehow we have been fooled or hoodwinked into believing that Kris Kringle will land on our roofs on Christmas morning is insulting at best. b Though I hope the JM campaign continue it, from what I've seen in the heartland - he's peein people off.
Furthermore, it is not dogma. My beliefs are based on facts previously laid out. But I am happy to lay it out for those too ignorant or hatefilled to see the truth.
Senator Obama has sponsored or co-sponsored 570 bills in the 109th and 110th Congress.
Senator Obama has sponsored or co-sponsored 15 bills that have become LAW since he joined the Senate in 2005.
Senator Obama has also introduced amendments to 50 bills, of which 16 were adopted by the Senate.
His record is in fact quite impressive for a junior Senator from Illinois.
Most of his legislative effort has been in the areas of:
* Energy Efficiency and Climate Change (25 bills)
* Health care (21 bills) and public health (20 bills)
* Consumer protection/labor (14 bills)
* The needs of Veterans and the Armed Forces (13 bills)
* Congressional Ethics and Accountability (12 bills)
* Foreign Policy (10 bills)
* Voting and Elections (9 bills)
* Education (7 bills)
* Hurricane Katrina Relief (6)
* The Environment (5 bills)
* Homeland Security (4 bills)
* Discrimination (4 bills)
And the full details including bill numbers? See http://tpzoo.wordpress.com/2008/07/31/obamas-senate-accomplishments/#more-6370
Not to mention one of the most startlingly successful careers as an IL legislator at both crossing the aisle and getting others to cross the aisle. Ever wonder why you don’t hear a single Republican IL legislator EVER bad mouth him? For that matter what about Republican US Senators? More likely to attack McCain, until recently than Obama. In fact, you here more negative attacks from (I) Lieberman than any other member of congress except McCain.
And, don't forget that he is the first black man to be the President of the Harvard Law Review, turned down million dollar offers to litigate for big firms or lobby for corporate giants and returned to the Chicago inner city as he promised, and became one of the most successful community organizers in IL history. Obama is a Constitutional scholar. He taught the Constitution for 12 years at Chicago Law, and knows it inside out and backwards. Obama has written two best selling books.
Much has been made by Senator McCain's supporters of his history as a survivor of a Viet Cong prison camp, of the broken bones and psychological onslaughts that he withstood for five long years. They argue that such an experience builds character. They should also take note of the challenges faced by a black man in America, challenges that have built Senator Obama's character. These may be harder to quantify than imprisonment and torture, but they are onerous in a different and inescapable way.
Obama has served his country well. So has McCain. If Obama was the son and grandson of Admirals and was born 40 years earlier he may have had a similar biography. But he was born to a poor mother in Kansas and a father who left them, and he grew up in a time of relative peace. His bottom up economic policy, focus on foreign diplomacy, and push for universal health care may not be your cup of tea, and therefore you will not vote for him as POTUS; but what he’s done is more than remarkable - only the ignorant (I'm talking to you again Boskop) can not see or appreciate that.
Posted on August 14, 2008 11:06 AM
And yes, unfortunately these items are true.
Please contact your local election protection headquarters and volunteer your help.
Posted on August 14, 2008 11:09 AM
So is that the new Obama strategy? Accusing the GOP of voter suppression... in August? But that means that they have a couple of months to re-register to vote. I am a little leary of these accusations, because in my state they cleared a large number off the registration roles because they were double registrations (moved to another county and was still registered in old county).
In contrast, in OHIO the secretary of state found a LOOPHOLE that allows voter registration and voting on the same day way before election day. It is called "early voting." Thus the secretary of state has decided to use that loophole approach in the urban areas (which benefits Obama). The GOP say they will sue unless ALL of Ohio has that same opportunity. Good legal point on their part.
In Florida, they passed a law last year (an initiative by GOP Governor Charlie Crist) allowing felons to have their voting rights restored (previously banned for life). And now approx. 115,000 felons are eligible to vote... and many believe this benefits Obama. Is that voter suppression?
Posted on August 14, 2008 11:14 AM
@1imagine: you ran this obama ad already. yawn,
i mean, have you actually read through these bills? no, you couldt possibly have done that.
and btw: would it fly in the Illinois senate and US senate that he was the sponsor excluding others. let's parse better.
how many were his actual exclusive brain child and which passed? how many were joint ventures.
since you have all the facts at your fingertips then kindly cough it up here as well. the power is in the details.
also making predictions is not arguing a case.
you have no inside track to god's ways other than, of course, saint obama. so why n ot stick to the level of discussion most of us do, namely the here and now.
finally, please, discuss dont run tired lists we've already seen.
and fyi: the blog doesn't support turgid homilectic writing. if you want us to read through posts keep them shorter. thx.
Posted on August 14, 2008 11:28 AM
Hey... I am highly educated and I am NOT voting for Obama for many reasons, and all are based on Obama's own words and actions.
For example: Obama voted for the Bush energy policies when he voted for the 2005 Bush/Cheney energy bill. (Hillary and McCain voted against it... something about big breaks for Big Oil being the main focus.) Obama is so unethical that he now says that McCain did not vote for alternative energy in 2005 (the Bush/Cheney energy bill) and justifies his own vote that he could not pass up the alternative energy-- read "goodies for Illinois for unnecessary incentives for corn ethanol and nuclear." Oh, you did not know that Illinois is the largest nuclear power user in nation and that the largest nuclear power provider Excelon has financed Obama's political career for years and that Obama's campaign manager Axelrod was/is a paid consultant (his firm) to promote Excelon?
See... we "educated" ones actually pay attention to the facts. It is really tiresome (and elitist) for the Obama followers to label everyone who is not in love with Obama as uneducated or downright dumb because we do not understand. Goes along with Obama's "bitter" comment. Obama followers really need to quit blindly supporting their candidate... sure vote for him but you need to seem that he has warts and all. Or that indeed the "emperor has no clothes."
Oh, I forgot to add... You did not know that Illinois is one of the largest corn ethanol producers in the nation? I call it "Big Corn" or "Big Agri" to correlate with "Big Oil." Who is in whose pocket?
Ironically, Obama aligning McCain with Exxon is more smoke and mirrors. Obama has received much more money from Exxon (bundled money from employees because corporations are not allowed to donate to candidates) whereas McCain has received money from the energy industry associations.
Posted on August 14, 2008 11:35 AM
@Undecided can you walk us through the contributions that Senator McCain's campaign received from Hess Oil a week before he flip flopped on drilling.
Posted on August 14, 2008 11:43 AM
You need to quote better sources.
Posted on August 14, 2008 11:44 AM
I actually laughed out loud at your comment. Define educated for me! I have a masters in Information Technology, is that educated? The guy working an assembly line in Detroit with a high school diploma, is that educated?
There's a big difference between education and intelligence. The left is referred to as elitist because they see anyone who didn't graduate from a left wing university as "uneducated".
In addition the left routinely talks down to the people who make the country work. The mailman, the auto worker, the guy doing tech support, the guy fixing your washing machine, etc, etc....those are all just big dumb uneducated barbarians.
The lefts biggest mistake is that is substitues "educated thought" for good old fashioned common sense. Liberalism only works in theory, it requires everyone to conform to one way of thinking in order to function. Its practical implementation into society has proven time and time again it simply doesn't work in a diverse society without sacrifising one's individualality.
Liberalism also tells others they lack the judgement and decision making ability to run their own lives, which is why at the core of liberalism is massive g'ment. Because the ideaology believes g'ment needs to be filled with highly educated and enlightened leftists so they can "take care of" everyone, because they simply can't do it themselves....the left justifies it by finding groups or segments of "victims".
Anyway, you get the point.
Posted on August 14, 2008 11:52 AM
I know that it is not your flavor, but all the Democracies in Europe are liberal democracies of one form or another. They tend to work, standards of living, are pretty good, elections seem to be fair!
Austraia and New Zealand you'd have to classify that way too.
Posted on August 14, 2008 12:00 PM
"there's a big difference between education and intelligence"
- said the guy who believes in creationism.
Ummm, yeah, look at bush and the neo-cons. Bush used affirmative action (his dad) to get his stupid arse into Harvard and Yale. He has an MBA but knows nothing about economics. Yes, for once you are right, stillow, education means nothing.
Why do you think there are so many "educated people" that still think the bible is literal? Yup, stupid people go to college too.
To be fair though, I would rather have an ivy league educated doctor over someone who went to Texas christian or some other juco-like school.
Again stillow - stop with the rants on "liberalism" - you aren't even making any sense. You really make yourself look dumber than you probably are. But at this point, your credibility is completely shot anyway as you have said you think evolution is a "liberal conspiracy". So, rant on brainiac....
Posted on August 14, 2008 12:09 PM
Correct...and Europe is often where liberals here point to and say see, its great. But what you choose not to see is who is the superpower? Not Europe. Who has bailed out Europe from being totally destoryed numerous times? America. Which country was the most inventive, the most effective in the 20th century? Not Europe. If you polled everyone on the planet if they could go live in any country in the world, do you honestly think they would answer France? No, they would answer America....there's a reason countless people try to immigrate here. Was it Europe who stood up the the Soviets and stopped there expansionism and enslavement of the free world? No, it was America. Europe is weak, there economies lackluster even during good times. Wealthy Europeans often come here for their health care. If a major global event occured tomorrow, Iran threateing to nuke western Europe for exmple...who would the world look to to save them? France? Germany? Nope, they'd look to us. Europe has been weakened beyond explanation by liberalism and there entitlement socieities. If America becomes like France, who will stand up and fight for the causes of freedom when the time comes? France couldn't even fight for itself and just let the Nazitanks roll right into Paris. Liberalism would be the best way to knock us out of super power status, become weak and complacent. The poor people in this country have big screen tv's........compare that to poor people in Africa. In addition this country is the most generous nation in the history of man kind, we give more aid than any other country by far.
The tide is chaning in Europe too, France elects a right leaning president, Germany....libralism in the long run does not work, it leads to a depressed society....one that can not think, one that cannot invent, compete or thrive.
Posted on August 14, 2008 12:13 PM
The idiocy on this board continues to amaze!
Some mccain staffers (undecided-not) apparently think that low level employees for oil companies that donate to obama actually represent "big oil".
That's like saying the janitor at a drug company that donates to Obama is pushing Big Pharma's interest. WHAT A JOKE! You would have to be a retard to believe that garbage.
THE FACTS DON"T LIE -
McCain received large amounts from big oil managers and officers before (and even more after) his flip on offshore drilling.
Obama has received money from everyone and many contributions are from low wage earners.
2,000,000 and counting have donated to Obama. Mccain & the repubs depend on the rich to keep them well-funded, but the poor and middle class believe in Obama. Eat that.
By the way, what did the polls say in Wisconsin before the primary against Clinton?? And what happened? Oh, okay, that's what I thought.
Again, please mccain, go give the cheeseheads some love......but make sure you change your POW story back.
Posted on August 14, 2008 12:20 PM
I also read in the paper this morning the city of Denver has a limozine shortage and they are having to bring more in for the convention. It cracked me up. While they find ways to hide the homeless from camera's there, they are finding ways to get more limo's...so the party of the "little people", the party of global warming, the party of everyone can't find enough gas guzzling limo's for the important people. That is what liberalism is, do as I say, not as I do. You have a small ruling elite class controlling g'ment making hte rules for everyone else, preaching to them not drive gas guzzlers, conserve....meanwhile the elitists fly around on private jets, drive limo's.......its hilarious.....in a sane world these people would be a laughing stock.
Posted on August 14, 2008 12:22 PM
He was banned, he has tons of screen names I think, I just ignore him and don't even read his comments. Just ignore him and let him rant to himself, we all love a healthy debate, but sometimes you run into one of those guys who is literally insane. I just ignore them.
Posted on August 14, 2008 12:26 PM
Wow, someone doesn't get out much.
Greatest on earth, huh? Umm, you really need to travel around, guy. I realize I'm talking to a creationist, but, jeez, I thought you guys at least knew some world history.
We have one of the worlds worst health care and education systems among developed nations. Your life expectancy and happiness are GUARANTEED to be better in a variety of other countries. How does a "superpower" manage that?? Superpower???....lol yeah right, superpower of the stupid & fat maybe.
Try going to Europe now and see how far the dollar takes you, brainiac.
Bush has made the dollar nearly worthless. If republicans had their way, pretty soon the peso will be worth more, and people like stillow will be crossing the border into mexico looking for IT jobs. ROTFLMAO!!
Posted on August 14, 2008 12:30 PM
Does that go for the Canadians as well?
The Swedes who are most socialist of all haven't done too badly with their Saaabs and Volvos etc
The point is that in a liberal democracy all sides are indeed represented and yes it is diverse. You're right Sarkozy is of the right.
Posted on August 14, 2008 12:33 PM
boskop/marctx/undecided/bambi/stillow/nickberry/greatcrapzoo/ whoever else :
CONSIDER YOURSELVES OUTED!!! You are probably all the same person, but still....outed nonetheless -
BOOM GOES THE DY-NO-MITE!!
You thought we wouldn't find out WHY you have been trolling this site....it all makes sense now, the cryptkeeper is paying you....ROTFLMAO @ the trolls.....
Posted on August 14, 2008 12:36 PM
Its a myth the left wants diversity. Look at universities for example, all the petitions to ban speakers are fro mthe left, they don't want right wingers coming in and giving their opinions. The left, with the exception of abortion attempts to remove choice awayfrom every aspect of your life. If you ask most of the world where they would like to live, I don't think sweeden would top America. Only in America can a guy go from living in his car to amulti millionaire.....look at the other guy who posts on here who is as left as you can get, he puts down this country every hcance he gets. I admire your convictions, we can agree to disagree, but liberalism only serves to weaken your country, force everyone to conform and takes away compeitiveness which leads to less creation and inventiveness.
Posted on August 14, 2008 12:40 PM
You make up things like "anti-American" to label people who disagree with your warped views on reality. What is anti-American about wanting a president that upholds the Constitution? What is anti-American about intellectual discourse? I know, I know, that is for "liberal" types only. You are too engrossed with important things like guns, bibles, and being Murican. For who else will protect your house from homosexuals, intellectuals, Muslims, illegals, and random foreigners?
So, let me get this straight. Bush is a great president, the rest of the planet was wrong about everything, Dubya knows all and is guided by Jesus, so all of us foreigners/intellectuals from SF/liberals/anti-americans should just shut our mouths and let the republicans destroy the country/world?
Is that your argument?
Hmmmpf, convincing. Just like the fact that you couldn't respond with any counter-arguments to my previous posts. Well done. You are a gentleman and a scholar.
"Patriotism is the last refuge of the scoundrel"
Posted on August 14, 2008 12:46 PM
Only in America could you get the son of a black goat herder from Kenya mothered by a white mother in Kansas be able to earn the opportunity to be elected the Head of State is that what you mean?
Posted on August 14, 2008 12:49 PM
Absolutely!!!!! The issues shoudl be debated thoroughly and then the vote....but yes, see how great America is? That was part of my point!
Posted on August 14, 2008 12:56 PM
I am very happy that once again we agree. Can you explain to me why the most successful innovative growth areas in the US are also the most liberal.
Now you know I am talking about Northern California, Washington State, the New South in Atlanta Georgia?
Posted on August 14, 2008 1:00 PM
Growth always goes in cycles I live in Nevada and the local paper did a poll last year asking th Californians why they are moving here in such #'s. the #1 answer was lower taxes! But now that all the CA democrats have moved in they are starting to elect democrats into power on the state level....and guess what? Now there is talk locally abou raising taxes and even creating a income tax.
Figure that one out!!!
Posted on August 14, 2008 1:04 PM
You didn't answer my point.
I was going to include Nevada in as a growth point especially Mead County Henderson, LV, but that was cyclical and to the extent that housing prices were about 20% less LFL.
Let's look at the Demographic change in Nevada, the local economy and particularly the housing market/and association construction tanked. I am really surprised McCain's numbers have held up.
Are the the Polls telling the story: Left committed, right committed and the rest to make up their minds as to who will make the best leader of the nation?
Posted on August 14, 2008 1:12 PM
In Southern NV the city councile approved way to much permits and things were over developed. Here in just the last couple of months housing is starting to move again, still not very good unless your a buyer, then its great. I think NV will stay red this time by a hair. Local hispanic leaders question Obama's sincerity. Growth cycles move around the country, the so called hot zones move into an area, run it up then move on. Capitalism does require a recession every so often to allow market stability to reain a foothold. After the recession of the early 90's we had a great booming economy...after the late 70's we had a great economy in the 80's. Recessions have good aspects too, prices for investment into the market get lower, allow more people to get in....similar to housing now, at very low prices, if you buy now and the market stabilized, you shoud have very very healthy equity. Its always a cycle, up, down, back up, back down and so on.
Posted on August 14, 2008 1:24 PM
So what don't you guys (inc. Obama) not understand that Big Oil Corporations (Exxon or Hess Oil or whomever) cannot legally donate to a candidate? It is not allowed.
Big Oil donations then are either "bundled" monies from management/employees (aka individuals) or energy industry associations.
I have been very clear about this. I am sorry for you that facts get in the way of your beliefs.
Posted on August 14, 2008 8:10 PM
They do it through their Political Action Committee, Exxon Mobil PAC
Posted on August 15, 2008 4:58 AM
Comments: (you may use HTML tags for style)
Please be patient while your comment posts - sometimes it takes a minute or two. To check your comment, please wait 60 seconds and click your browser's refresh button. Note that comments with three or more hyperlinks will be held for approval.
Please email us to report offensive comments.
See our comment policy here. Note that we require commenters to share their email address via Typekey. We will never share your email address with anyone without your explicit permission.
MAP - US, AL, AK, AZ, AR, CA, CO, CT, DE, FL, GA, HI, ID, IL, IN, IA, KS, KY, LA, ME, MD, MA, MI, MN, MS, MO, MT, NE, NV, NH, NJ, NM, NY, NC, ND, OH, OK, OR, PA, RI, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VT, VA, WA, WV, WI, WY, PR