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POLL: Suffolk University New Hampshire Primary


The fourth in a succession of Suffolk University/7NEWS statewide tracking surveys of likely primary voters in New Hampshire (conducted 1/3 through 1/4) finds:

  • Among 500 likely Democratic primary voters, Sen. Hillary Clinton runs at 36%, Sen. Barack Obama at 29% in a statewide primary; former Sen. John Edwards trails at 13%.
  • Among 500 likely Republican primary voters, former Gov. Mitt Romney runs at 30%, Sen. John McCain at 26% in a statewide primary; former Gov. Mike Huckabee and former Mayor Rudy Giuliani both trail at 11%, Rep. Ron Paul at 8%.
  • All other candidates receive less than five percent each. The margin of sampling error is 4.4% for each subgroup.

 

Comments
jonnyB:

Suffolk University's numbers are similar to Zogby's. Zogby is doing a running poll as well; today, Sat., Zogby has Hillary up by 4; Fri., Zogby had Hillary up by 6.
ARG also has Hillary up 4.

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I'd love to know what accounts for the difference between the Suffolk poll, which shows Clinton/Obama at 36/29, and the latest from Rasmussen, which shows almost the opposite...

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Michael Smith:

Ciccina: Most likely its the weighting of the polls for the Likely Voter Model. Remember this isn't a poll of all registered voters, but those deemed likely to vote in the primary. If we see an influx of new voters, much like we saw in Iowa OR we see the Independents vote on the Dem side and not the GOP side, CW suggests Obama winning this handily. Unfortunately there are way too many factors at play.

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Paul:

For the Democratic primary, Rasmussen is using a 40% weighting for Independents, same as Zogby. Today's Suffolk poll has Independents at 35% for the Democratic primary. As to why the January 5 Rasmussen poll shows Obama at 37 and Clinton at 27 (Obama +10 and Clinton -4 since Rasmussen pre-Christmas poll), Rasmussen poll was done on January 4 after Iowa caucus results were known.

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Thanks, guys!

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Jesse Hoff:

Furthermore, the rasumussen is straight up 1/4, which will document the bump from winning iowa that obama is likely to get. Zogby and suffolk have 1/3 too, so its somewhat likely that half of their respondents were from the 1/3, or even more (they may have just not gotten enough response on 1/3 and had to do some more calling in the morning to finish their quota, even more likely for zogby who planned to do a daily tracker.

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Paul:

The most recent Zogby covers 20% after Iowa caucus and 80% before Iowa caucus. Suffolk does not say.

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LC:

Assume the numbers are right. Obama goes from almost dead even w/ Hillary to 10 ahead in one day. Neither candidate has had a brain transplant. Neither made some enormous media gaff or ultra-stirring speech.

What does this mean about the voters? Did they lie yesterday in telling the pollsters they were for Hillary when they were really rooting for Obama & now, after Iowa, they feel they can tell the truth?

Or do some people simply vote for whomever they perceive at voting time to be the winner? In which case our democracy is in even worse shape than I thought.

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