Suffolk University (via The Page)
4/19 through 4/20, n=600 likely Democratic primary voters
Clinton 52, Obama 42
Release, marginals, crosstabs
AP report (via The Page)
Sigh. Alas, the trendlines seem to be converging in much the same way as they did in Ohio. For me (as an Obama supporter) that is disheartening.
Obama now seems to be averaging 42% in the recent polls. That should be something of a "floor" for him. The question is how far he can rise above that floor.
There's been a lot of talk on this site about what percentage Clinton needs to win by. However, her popular vote pick-up in PA is even more important than her winning percentage. The magic number is 204,227. That is the number by which (according to RCP) Obama leads in the overall popular vote, IF MICHIGAN AND FLORIDA ARE INCLUDED. Thus, if Clinton nets more than 204,227 votes in PA, you will hear her campaign claim--erroneously--that they now lead the overall popular vote. (Such a claim is erroneous, since MI clearly can't be included in any popular vote total, given that Obama got 0 votes there.)
Be on the look-out for this magic number, and the dangerous spin that will follow if she exceeds it.
Posted on April 21, 2008 7:58 AM
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