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POLL: SurveyUSA 7 Statewide GE Match-ups


Seven new SurveyUSA automated surveys of registered voters in New Mexico, Washington State, Oregon, Kansas, Kentucky, Alabama, and Virginia (conducted 12/13 through 12/15) finds:

  • New Mexico (n=523; MoSE 4.4%)

    Clinton 49%, Giuliani 46%
    Clinton 59%, Romney 44%
    Clinton 49%, Huckabee 45%
    McCain 48%, Clinton 45%

    Giuliani 49%, Obama 44%
    Romney 46%, Obama 44%
    Huckabee 46%, Obama 45%
    McCain 51%, Obama 40%
  • Washington State (n=513; MoSE 4.4%)

    Clinton 52%, Giuliani 43%
    Clinton 55%, Romney 41%
    Clinton 54%, Huckabee 41%
    Clinton 49%, McCain 47%

    Obama 55%, Giuliani 38%
    Obama 57%, Romney 35%
    Obama 55%, Huckabee 37%
    Obama 50%, McCain 43%
  • Oregon (n=537; MoSE 4.3%)

    Clinton 50%, Giuliani 42%
    Clinton 51%, Romney 40%
    Clinton 50%, Huckabee 42%
    McCain 46%, Clinton 46%

    Obama 50%, Giuliani 40%
    Obama 50%, Romney 38%
    Obama 51%, Huckabee 40%
    Obama 46%, McCain 44%
  • Kansas (n=529; MoSE 4.3)

    Giuliani 51%, Clinton 39%
    Romney 49%, Clinton 43%
    Huckabee 53%, Clinton 39%
    McCain 58%, Clinton 35%

    Giuliani 52%, Obama 38%
    Romney 44%, Obama 43%
    Huckabee 50%, Obama 41%
    McCain 56%, Obama 36%
  • Kentucky (n=534; MoSE 4.3)

    Clinton 47%, Giuliani 45%
    Clinton 48%, Romney 44%
    Clinton 47%, Huckabee 46%
    McCain 50%, Clinton 44%

    Giuliani 50%, Obama 40%
    Romney 46%, Obama 40%
    Huckabee 51%, Obama 38%
    McCain 53%, Obama 35%
  • Alabama (n=544; MoSE 4.3%)

    Giuliani 49%, CLinton 42%
    Romney 46%, Clinton 45%
    Huckabee 49%, Clinton 44%
    McCain 50%, Clinton 43%

    Giuliani 52%, Obama 36%
    Romney 48%, Obama 39%
    Huckabee 52%, Obama 37%
    McCain 54%, Obama 36%
  • Virginia (n=546; MoSE 4.3)

    Clinton 52%, Giuliani 42%
    Clinton 53%, Romney 40%
    Clinton 54%, Huckabee 40%
    Clinton 48%, McCain 46%

    Obama 48%, Giuliani 45%
    Obama 50%, Romney 43%
    Obama 51%, Huckabee 42%
    McCain 50%, Obama 44%

 

Comments

Clinton seems to have the electability edge in these results. However, it's not a huge edge.

I wish they polled Edwards as well. He does have a shot at winning the nomination.

____________________

Phil:

CNN reported that Edwards beats all the republican candidates in head to head matchups and yet SurveyUSA doesn't even test him. What gives? They test several republicans that have much lower support.

Also, Edwards is neck and neck in Iowa and could certainly become the Dem nominee.

____________________

"Also, Edwards is neck and neck in Iowa and could certainly become the Dem nominee."

I think he has the advantage due to two reasons.

1.) His supporters are more likely to vote.
2.) The way Iowa works carrying several small towns is better than winning one city with twice their combined populations. That's why candidates need to visit every part of the state, which Edwards did in 2004 and again in 2008.

On the other hand, a lot more of Obama's support comes from people who would be voting in their first primary and it is concentrated in the big cities.

(Hillary Clinton is somewhere in the middle of those two.)

All three have a shot at winning Iowa, and who ever wins there, will have at least a shot at winning New Hampshire as well.

____________________

Gary Kilbride:

One state stood out here. Surprising Democratic strength in Virginia, particularly Hillary's percentages (52+) against everyone besides McCain.

Very few permutations for a GOP electoral victory minus Virginia.

____________________



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