Obama 53, McCain 41
Posted on June 20, 2008 4:32 PM
I don't know why states like California and New Yorak are being polled so much when we are barely getting any polls out swing states like New Mexico and Michigan.
Posted on June 20, 2008 5:51 PM
I think that because silly people thought that since Obama lost California and New York to Hillary in the primaries; therefore, McCain would win those states against Obama. You know, just like hispanics, Hillary won them, Obama lost them, therefore McCain will win it. Now, do we see how reasonable such arguments were?
Posted on June 20, 2008 6:06 PM
SSSHHHH, don't tell the crypt keeper. Let him think Cali is still winnable.
Posted on June 20, 2008 6:52 PM
The arguments were never made about California and New York. Of course a democrat is going to win those states. The states such as Ohio, Pennslyvania, Florida, Michigan, West Virginia, Colorado, Arkansas, Iowa, and New Mexico are the swing-states. Those states decide the election. McCain leads big in West Virginia and Kentucky and it looks like Obama has Iowa and is pulling a way in Penn. However, the rest of the states they are running even and whoever wins those wins the election.
In the last Clinton-McCain poll she won all those states except Iowa. That was her argument, that he won the primary stage by winning red states and caucuses while she was the only one who had the better chance of getting the all the important swing states
Posted on June 21, 2008 4:59 PM
I think that this was exactly the problem Hillary had: She tried to make an argument that was just silly on its face. Superdelegates are Politians and politians understand how politics work. Polls are just snapshots and those taken in summer rarely predict who the winner in the fall is going to be. As we already saw, in the new Quinnipiac poll in Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania Obama is leading McCain. Just a month ago it was McCain leading Obama in Florida and Ohio. See how reliable polls are?
Hillary tried to make an argument based on the primaries outcome, infering that somehow this translate into the general. Silly, no? I can still hear Howard Wolfson saying that the only big state Obama had won was Illinois, his homestate, and that this showed Obama's problems with winnning big states. No democrat is going to lose the majority of those big, blue states, including Pennsylvania, a very reliable democratic state. Indeed, no poll has shown Obama at anytime losing Pennsylvania.
Remember that democrats don't need to win each and every state. Kerry lost because he lost Ohio. Kerry didn't need to win Penn., Ohio and Florida. Penn. and Ohio would have done the trick. So, this idea that Obama needs to win every state is, again, silly. Now, in addition to leading in traditional battleground states, Obama is also leading McCain in states that Kerry narrowly lost, like Iowa, New Mexico and Colorado.
Remember that the key for McCain is to hold onto those states that Bush won in 2004. Right now he is not: Ohio, Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado, Florida are slipping away from McCain's hands, let alone states like Virginia, North Carolina, and Georgia, where AA turnout will make the GOP very uncomfortable.
Posted on June 23, 2008 12:51 PM
Florida is slipping away from McCain... really? Rasmussen has McCain up by 8 points.
Posted on June 23, 2008 3:49 PM
And Quinnipiac and ARG has him up? So, two against 1. Things look like are moving towards Obama. Actually, we just got this from THE MIAMI HERALD, the local newspaper in Miami.
"In a sign that Democrat Barack Obama will be competitive in the nation's largest swing state, he is beating Republican John McCain comfortably in South Florida and has a slight edge among Hispanics, according to a new Miami Herald poll."
"Obama is ahead 46-30 percent over McCain in Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties."
"South Florida traditionally votes Democratic, but Obama's lead in Miami-Dade is wider than the narrow margin of victory posted by 2004 Democratic nominee John Kerry."
"Among Hispanics in the three counties, Obama leads McCain 40 to 35 percent. Until the tide started to turn against the Republican Party in 2006, Hispanics in Florida have long favored the GOP."
''That shows the depth of anger that Hispanics are feeling toward the Republican Party,''
EXCEPTION: As I have already told you, Cubans.
"Of the Cuban-Americans in the Herald poll, a majority support McCain."
"The survey also showed Obama leading among independents voters by 33-20 percent."
The path for any democrat to win Florida goes through South Florida: Miami-Dade, Palm Beach, Broward counties. The fact that Barack is doing so well in the democratic bastion that favored Hillary over him during the primary puts the state on play for him. Republicans were hoping that as a result of the primary mess, Hillary supporters in the state will turn to McCain. But, it looks like in the home of democrats in the state Obama is rocking. I'm more than please to find out that he's doing better than Kerry in 2004.
However,I don't think that Obama needs Florida. I would rather see him securing Ohio than spending time in Florida. Ohio is an uphill battle for McCain due to his very Pro-Free-trade positions. Remember, if McCain cannot hold onto all the states that Bush won, he's done.
Posted on June 23, 2008 9:53 PM
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