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POLL: SurveyUSA Indiana (5/2-4)


SurveyUSA

Indiana
n=675, MoSE=3.8
Clinton 54, Obama 42

 

Comments
damitajo1:

Good. I hope they are consistent with their great record!

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boskop:

reliable SUSA has reported. now watch zogby squirm back by saying that his large undecideds (8%) all went for clinton. that's his little elastic clause that he stretches at will.

in the event of a sizable clinton win ie over 8% if he pulls this wiggle room gambit again i suggest no one pay further attention to this amateur.

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boskop:

reliable SUSA has reported. now watch zogby squirm back by saying that his large undecideds (8%) all went for clinton. that's his little elastic clause that he stretches at will.

in the event of a sizable clinton win ie over 8% if he pulls this wiggle room gambit again i suggest no one pay further attention to this amateur.

if susa or ppp say obama is way ahead in nc- believe that too.

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sherriot:

SUSA had Clinton up by 11% in Missouri.

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fed:

Any idea if Indiana based,gauge market research, will have a poll out today? That would be interesting to see

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Andrew_in_California:

SUSA probably has a better record of being wrong than Zogby. Its just that Zogby got California wrong and everyone remembers it. Noone typically cares about SUSA as it is been considered a junk polling operation by the National Media.

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Pat:

SUSA has 21% of AA voting for Clinton and AA only 10% of likely voters. This is the reason for the big spread of 12 points. It is not going to happen.

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RS:

@Pat:
SUSA doesn't juice up its demographics. So a 10% African-American vote might indicate a lack of enthusiasm - SUSA was (if I recall correctly) spot-on in PA for this demographic.
Clinton 21% of 10%... If it's 15%, that makes only a 1% difference in the margin, within MOE.

Not too happy with this result, but SUSA could be right. You could take Zogby at Obama 44-42, split the undecideds 2:1 for Clinton (not surprising), and get close to Clinton 53-47. Remember MOE is +/-4% on Zogby, so the margin could be bigger - or smaller.

I think people picking on Zogby as "biased" are wrong; but I do wish Zogby would push the undecideds harder this close to election day.

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damitajo1:

You guys are posting some horrible information. First of all SUSA has the best record in the primary season and was the Number 2 pollster overall for the 2004 election. Zogby is not coming anywhere close to SUSA. Please provide a citation to where a major news outfit said that SUSA was a "junk" operation....

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Tragic Chix:

Survey USA's polling has been quite strong. It was spot on in California and Ohio.

But there are two things that I sort of question in this polling. (1) They note that their polls have never had Clinton garnering less than 52% and never had Obama over 45%. This isn't quite consistent with the conventional wisdom or other polling. The Downs Center had Obama getting 50% and 45% in their polling. Howley-Gauge had Obama with 47%. Research 2000 had Obama with 46 and 48%. So, other polls have had him higher throughout the process than SurveyUSA ever has.
(2) The other thing is the polling has Clinton doing particularly well with early voters, but some reports have early voting in areas that are expected to go for Obama.

I think someone mentioned that SurveyUSA was spot on in PA, but Zogby was actually closer to the final result in PA than SurveyUSA.

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Pat:

@RS:

I have seen a trend for quite some time now with AA voters. What they tell pollsters is a higher % support for Clinton than actual voting. They have been voting 9-1 for Obama. This poll has Obama getting 77%.

I don't see any reason for his support among AAs to be softer in a State that is neighboring IL. Also, recent attacks on Obama by MSM about his pastor most likely will bring out more AAs.

SUSA is wrong this time.

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goawaybillary:

WHO CARES??!?!?!

It doesn't matter if she wins both NC and IN by 20 points. She is done. Can any of you add? Math.....ever heard of it??


All that is left is for her to start singing.

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pollwatcher:

When comparing this poll to the last SUSA poll released on 4/28, I noticed something interesting. Compared to the last SUSA poll, for the 18-34 age groups Clinton is +8, Obama is -11. Conversely, for the 65+ age group Clinton is -1, Obama is +7. The 35-64 age groups remain fairly stagnant, showing a net +3 gain for Clinton. I find it a little hard to believe that Clinton would increase her youth vote so substantially while Obama is simultaneously making noticeable gains with seniors.

That being said, SUSA has a great track record so even if the age breakdown is wrong, as an Obama supporter I fear that overall the poll may be accurate.

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RS:

@Pat:
What I meant was, SUSA said African-Americans were 14% of the PA electorate, while PPP said that would be 18%. Exit polls said 15%. PPP tried to pump up the African-American vote, but that was incorrect.

Whether Senator Obama wins African-Americans 90-10 or 80-20, that makes just a 1-2% difference in the overall margin for IN. So it would still be a 10% game.

Let's hope the African-American turnout is high in both NC and IN. Interestingly, the Suffolk poll (Clinton 49-43) has African-Americans at 15% of the vote.
Also, SUSA female 52%; Suffolk female 56%.

IN regions:
SUSA says Senator Clinton wins Northern IN (38% of total vote) 53-42. I think northern IN includes Gary.
The Suffolk poll has northcentral/northeast/northwest IN at just over 30%, and evenly split 47-46. Of course, this assumes their regional demarcations are similar...

The difference in turn-out is made up in south IN; the vote splits are similar for the two polls.

This regional breakdown reminds me of PA - if turnout is high in Gary and Indy, that could make the race much closer.

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THE ZOGBY POLL AND EVERTIME HE POLLS IN PRIMARY AND NOT CAUCESSES HE IS OFF BY 10-20 POINTS LIKE OHIO CALIF.,NEW HAMpHIRE- AND WHEN IT COMES TO PRIMARIES ARG AND SURVEY USA USAULLY GET IT RIGHT THEY BOTH POLLS WERE DEAD ON IN CALF. NEW YORK OHIO AND FLORIDA!!! SO SURVEY USA AND ARG GET IT RIGHT IN PRIMARIES AND ZOGBY only IN CAUCASES---- imagine zogby said obama would win ohio by one point!!!

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THE ZOGBY POLL AND EVERTIME HE POLLS IN PRIMARY AND NOT CAUCESSES HE IS OFF BY 10-20 POINTS LIKE OHIO CALIF.,NEW HAMpHIRE- AND WHEN IT COMES TO PRIMARIES ARG AND SURVEY USA USAULLY GET IT RIGHT THEY BOTH POLLS WERE DEAD ON IN CALF. NEW YORK OHIO AND FLORIDA!!! SO SURVEY USA AND ARG GET IT RIGHT IN PRIMARIES AND ZOGBY only IN CAUCASES---- imagine zogby said obama would win ohio by one point!!!NEW JERSEY AND MASSETUSSETTS, ALSO SURVEY GOT EXACTLY RIGHT,ZOGBY WAS OFFIN NEW JERSEY BY 10 POINTS AND IN MASS. HE WAS OFF BY 12 POINTS

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MISSOURI SURVEY WAS THE ONLY TIME IT WAS OFF, AND THAT WAS BECAUSE CLARE MCKASKILL, WAS IN RURAL AREAS ALL OVER THE PLACE CAMPAIGNING, FOR HIM, AND BITTEGATE AND WRIGHT GATE HAD NOT SURFACED, EVER SINCE BITTERGATE AND WRIGHT GATE. USA SURVEY IS RIGHT ON THEMONEY AND EVEN BEFORE THAT THEY WERE RIGHT ON THE MONEY!!

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