Pollster.com

SUSA sample went from 38%D, 36%R, 19%I in July to 36%D, 42%R, 15%I in the new one.

It's all happening!! 7 point swing? Someone verify that. I can't believe my eyes.

McCain is turning yellow states to pink, NC and now Indiana...watch MO go pink next.

SurveyUSA is notoriously bad at determining likely voters. Their questions aren't that great either. I think realistically McCain is up by 3.

So what Jeff is saying is that the weighting changed instead of the actual point swing. He is saying that 4% independents and 2% democrats where changed to republican in the sample weights. In actuality, it looks like a one point pick up for McCain since the last poll in June. I could agree with that except that the independents in that state are probably former republicans anyway. This would indicate that the republicans are starting to see McCain as their candidate.

I think these numbers indicate that McCain is solidifying the GOP/lean GOP base (82% compared to 77% Dems for Obama)... and garnering the conservative Democrats (19%).

Not looking good for the big O.

This is an interactive poll (push 1 for__, push 2 for__, and so on) so a person pushes a button for what ideology they feel that day. But what does party affiliation/weighting matter if McCain can get 19% of the Democratic vote?

where are all the obamites?
why is it that when the polls are up for him we still hang around and talk but they disappear like a vampires at dawn?

It looks like Obama lost Republican support since last poll. Now at 12% but was 16%.

Its telling how even with all these things going for McCain at the moment, Obama still retains the lead, McCain has a cap on how high he can go it seems and his high end seems to be below Obama's low end. After next week it won't be an issue, Obama will get the bump from the convention and its very difficult for the trailing cantidate to win if they are behind after the conventions

"After next week it won't be an issue, Obama will get the bump from the convention and its very difficult for the trailing cantidate to win if they are behind after the conventions...."

Someone should memo Dukakis and Kerry on this one.

@ player:

Yes, you get the point exactly. The shift in the composition of the poll sample, as seen in party ID, is a much more likely explanation for the net change of 5 points than any real shift in voter attitudes. Shows you how hard it can be to spot movement even when you think you have apples & apples.

@bmcfar01:

Actually if you look at Pollster

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/convention_bumps_in_context.php

You'll see that after the conventions in 2004 Bush was leading, Kerry only led for like a few weeks after the Dem convention, but by the GOP convention it was Bush who was leading and he won, in 1988 we see that right after the GOP convention Bush sr. took the lead and kept it.

Obamabots are desperate. They will believ in anything like after convention bump etc.

It is the TREND that matters. Obama is trending down in a year that is supposed to be a wipeout for Reps.(thanks to G. Bush).

Go figure Obambots.

Who are all you people? Where did you come from? This site seems to have tripled its user base within the last month, which explains why it's become such a petty, caustic atmosphere, where people come to spin every single poll statistic as a sign of doom for their party's opponent. I used to come here for intelligent discussion with Dems and GOPers, now I don't know what to make of it. I guess I'll go on looking for a more "intelligent and civil" discussion space.

Say what... josephj? Looking at poll statistics is "petty" and "caustic?" As I remember, you are an Obama supporter, eh?

You're right ca-indp, it is a trend

http://www.pollster.com/polls/us/08-us-pres-ge-mvo.php

And Obama seems to be holding his lead pretty well, even with McCain having a good moth Obama's lead is still there, while McCain has only had a slight uptick

@KipTin

I think you just proved Josephj's point.

I always thought Indiana would float back to leans Republican.

However, there are some things to note about this poll. The entire McCain recovery is based on the cross-tabs which show that the sample is
42% Republican
92% white
6% black

(the previous sample in their other poll showed 36% Republican and 89% white)

Just fyi, Indiana is only 84% white. It is 9% black.

On top of that, the black community showed up BIGTIME in the primary this year. Beyond all reasonable expectations. Also, as usual, Survey USA shows McCain capturing a disportionate amount (19%) of the black vote. Not. Going. To. Happen.

The poll does show Obama trailing among white voters by 12 points however, which would almost guarantee a McCain victory in the state. It will come down to turnout. If the final exit poll shows blacks constituting 10% or more of the electorate though, Obama could carry Indiana.

One final thing I would leave you with: Survey USA did absolutely the worst job of any pollster in the nation with regard to the Indiana Democratic primary. They had Hillary winning 54 to 42. Hillary ended up winning by 1.2 percentage points.

If Obama wins Indiana (unlikely but possible), the crosstabs will look like this:

..................Obama......McCain.....Other
White 84%....44%.......54%........2%
Black 11%....94%........4%.........2%
Other 5%.....58%........40%........2%

Which yields:
Obama 50.2%
McCain 47.8%
Other 2%

It's a longshot, but McCain doesn't have any campaign offices in Indiana and Obama has 25 of them.

So how did I prove josephj's point? Be specific.

By being petty and caustic. What does it matter if he's an Obama supporter, a McCain supporter, or just a non-partisan interested in polling? He was simply stating (accurately, I believe), that the current atmosphere of partisan doomsaying and pettiness on these threads is not condusive to good discussion.

Regarding Indiana demographics.. Is the white/black ratio you used based on population, eligible voters, or registered voters?

I want to address the issue of the Democrat/Republican ID issue. Although the party ID may indeed affect the poll, it does not account for all of the 7 point swing. It looks like Independents leaning toward McCain may now be self-identifying as Republican.

In June among Independents it was Obama 49- McCain 42. Now it is Obama 51- McCain 39. That is a 5 point swing in Obama's favor... yet the percentage of Independents has decreased from 19% to 15% (4 points) and the Republican ID has increased 6%. Notably, the Democratic ID has decreased only 2%. It really seems to be a shift among the Independents, which is very plausible.

Actually, YOU are proving josephj's point. No where have I been petty and caustic at anytime.

What I was implying is that too many Obama supporters...as exemplified by josephj who calls debating poll data that favors one candidate or another as "spin" when it does not favor his candidate. He also finds such ORDINARY behavior on poll blogs (e.g. discussing polls and data) to be "petty" and "caustic" when it does not favor his candidate. I should know, because I have been targeted by josephj and such others for making legitimate observations regarding the statistical data way before I decided to vote against Obama.

Full disclosure: I was never crazy for Obama yet I was holding out for his VP pick to be the decisive factor, but several intervening events led me to make my mind up sooner rather than later. Among those events were the ongoing personal attacks upon the non-Obama lovers by posters like josephj (and other posters who are much worse)... as well as Obama's own words and actions.

Change from last SUSA poll (Obama +1) is due entirely to shift in partisan composition of likely voters. Obama's and McCain's performance among Dems, Reps, and indies almost identical in the two polls.

I've been on this site since the beginning of the primaries. This is my most visited most favorite site. The few regulars I can recognize, have been posting for months. The big shift occurred when the nomination went to Obama. I remember several posters that suddenly switched positions. This is the best site to follow polls and blog about it. Well, I think it is the only site to follow polls and blog about...lol. If you don't like opposing points of view go to Dailykos and HuffPo. Only one point of view there.

Perhaps KipTin, but there is a much simpler answer. As SUSA do not weigh for party id they just got an undersample of republicans in their last poll. Given that, for their last poll, the number of republicans was 36% but in the exit polls for 2000, it was 42%, and 2004, 46%, this seem at least as plausible.

Obama can end all his problems easily. Pick Hillary as VP, PUMA would be over and it would given him a definite win in Nocember. The election is so close right now, look at any electoral map but this one and it shows how close the race is. Even electoral-vote, a very democratic site, shows the race in a dead heat. Hillary would give him states like Ohio, Florida, Michigan, Pennslyvania, and Arkansas.

If he can get over his personal grudge and pick her, the dems will win, if not its anyones race.

Just to be nit-picky... Alan A.--

You stated "Obama's and McCain's performance among Dems, Reps, and indies almost identical in the two polls."

I agree on the Democrats and Republican preferences, but where I see a difference is the Independents--

June: Obama 49 - McCain 42 (7 point diff.)
August: Obama 51 - McCain 39 (12 point diff.)

These results are not almost identical.

I can see why you might think there is a difference, KipTin, but the margin of error for independents in this poll is about 10 for each canditate.

Regarding demographics - they are based both on statewide demographics and on exit polls.

Ndirish11 is exactly right. In a historic year, with a race this close as this point (even though it shouldn't be), Obama's best chance at a victory is to select Clinton as his VP. Not only would he be creating a truly historic ticket. He'd shore up the large, important swing voting blocks that Dems need to win: white women and working class "Reagan Democrats". But he's so arrogant, he won't. Does he care that more registered Democrats voted for Hillary than him? No. He'll pick someone like Biden (god, what a lackluster choice that is; even ironic since Obama is running a "campaign of words" and Biden's '88 run ended due to plagarism). And Obama will lose (by losing OH and a few other states Hillary could have made a difference in). Obama will go down in history as the most disappointing joke of a candidate since McGovern, McCain will have one disastrous term, and Hillary will be elected in 2012 (with that black guy from Tennessee as her running mate; a smart, winning choice). Remember She/he who laughs last laughs best...

@Patrick

Obama is too arrogant to pick Clinton? Did it ever occur to you that maybe Clinton is too arrogant to play second fiddle on the ticket?