Articles and Analysis


POLL: SurveyUSA Indiana Dems


Clinton 52, Obama 43


Another Mike:

"Obama leads by 26 points among Independents. Clinton leads by 21 among Republicans. Some in talk radio have urged Republicans to vote for Clinton in states where laws permit Republicans to vote in Democratic primaries. It is unclear to what extent this is happening in Indiana."

The disparity between independants and Republicans is incredible.



Republicans voting in the Democratic race - Senator Clinton's newest firewall.
No wonder she's cozying up to Richard Mellon Scaife!



Remember, it was the Republicans (often in numbers equal to or close to Independents) who gave Obama many of his early wins. In many states that went for Obama, Hillary received far more votes from actual Democrats. This is what's wrong with having 'open' caucuses and primaries and allowing Republicans to vote in the Democratic race. One party can 'hijack' the nominating process of the other party. Not to mention that almost 2 million Florida Democratic voters were disenfranchised by the Republican controlled legislature and Governor (who moved up the primary). It's ridiculous.




And what of the Michiganders? Blame Governor Granholm, one of Senator Clinton's fervent supporters!

The Republicans who voted for Senator Obama were not egged on by Rush Limbaugh.

Either way, I couldn't care less. It's just funny to see critical components of the "vast right-wing conspiracy" now propping up Senator Clinton. They truly need each other to stay alive...



Despite the Republicans' preference for Clinton, that's not where Obama's major challenge lies. Note that if no Republicans vote in the primary, Clinton would still lead by seven points, rather than by nine.



first of all, i dont know how much of the rush limbaugh jive is true. and who cares it if is. BTW, wouldn't obama like to be on the receiving end of it had he been the one it helped?

let's get real here, guys. you cant keep slicing and dicing so everything that redounds to hillary is bad when you really wish it were the big 'O' getting the goodies. tsk tsk.

as for the michigan mess, hillary has been rather vocal about the redo despite affiliations. obama is cleverly 'not present'. his people, go just so far but no further in their efforts. harvard law, slippery as a hot toboggan on ice!!

stepping back for a moment, though, what IS abundantly clear in this 21st century freedom debacle, is that the US is truly federalist in case you ever doubted it.

this mess is a states right mess and maybe it's time to do a spring cleaning on the consitution. sorry ron paul you got it backwards. dont enshrine it... shine it!

nothing is sacred and last i heard, god did not come down from a cloud and scratch out the words with his little pinkie.

so if humans wrote the thing, we can re-write it and re-write legislation in states towards some kind of uniformity. otherwise, surprise surprise, there will not be a democratic nominee any time soon and howard dean hasn't got a pot to p-e in because of this ancient 18th century yoke around our national necks.

as for me, polls are fun now and then, but you need to put a few days between them or them mean squat. in the meantime, having turned off
wolf bloviating blitzer, chris 'slurp and spit' mathews, et al, i have discovered the food network and think i finally can make pasta primavera!! Ciao!



As a Republican I am ashamed of the attempts of Limbaugh and others to project "chaos" into the democratic race by having Republicans vote as Democrats. Here's my rationale:

1) a vote should be taken seriously...I don't care who you vote for (I voted for McCain in my TX primary) but it should be for the person who you think can best lead this country in my opinion. Many a young men, far greater than you and I have given the ultimate sacrifice for you and I to exert our responsibilities as citizens. We owe it to those young men and women separated from their families to cast and vote that is solemn and serious.

2) Limbaugh's argument has always been to defeat Liberals through the power of our agruments. Now he is asking to defeat Liberals by asking Republicans to pretend to be Democrats...hardly an agrument that would win over Liberals to our side.

On a tactical note it is also not smart...I truly believe Hillary is the tougher of the two Democratic candidates. She is not to be taken lightly...when you have a powerful opponent like her on the ropes, you finish her off. Let the Dems decide this contest and let's use the power of our agruments to elect John McCain as our next President.

Thank you for your time.




Thatcher wrote a nice reply to your earlier rant on the ARG NC thread:

Anyhoo, glad your cooking is improving, because your rants definitely aren't... I haven't said anything to the effect that Senator Clinton should not get support from Rush L and RM Scaife. Just observing the rich irony of it all...

Then again, one just has to wonder - if the vast right-wing conspiracy hadn't been in action in the '90s, would there even have been a Senator Clinton? ;-)



@RS fyi: rich irony is what i was addressing. no, make that utter farce. facts are different in different hands. so i am rather unimpressed with your cohort's reply.

the point being made is a broader arching one that requires one to get their head out of the hole and start looking up and out towards the future. history tracks as an inevitable story. i am suggesting that we remove ourselves for a brief nano moment to imagine how that story might read given the process so far.

in other words, project a little. imagine. and step out of the mucky puddle of data and the monotonous 'he said she said'. there is something far bigger going on here and it is NOT about race and gender!

there is a serious crack their contest has revealed, let's try and figure out where this story is going. and if you suggest this is a rant, so be it. i suggest you try it on for size.



God bless America (and Indiana)!

Maybe Hillary is Rocky!

Hillary Rodham Clinton for President!



I am a Republican who is voting for Hillary. It's not because of Limbaugh, either. McCain is fairly liberal, and Hillary is centrist enough that I am voting for the first time for a Democrat. This group of Republicans mentioned in the poll are people who are Christians, I suspect, and see her as the most moral, patriotic of all the choices.

And she is! Hillary for Pres :)




You appear to be making some larger point about changing a/the constitution, but the point is largely lost in your rather disorganized post - which is why I was referring to them as rants.

Some focused, cohesive writing might help get your point across better. That's all.



prior distribution 3-6 weeks out does not equal posterior, just stat talk for yet another useless poll with limited predictive value... :) Not saying that just cause I am an Obama supporter but because the history seems to indicate his ability to close the gap (thus the 7 point gap is much ado about nothing, if we were a week out then it merits concern).

As for the protracted Clinton/Obama race can we get it over with already?!?! These 2 months are agony (everyone should vote on the same day like the GE), anyone but me bored to tears.... I am so ready for some serious talk about this 100 year war in Iraq...

If the limbaugh effect is real, beyond a point or two, (and I dont think that it is) the republicans are playing a dangerous game dont you think?

are you serious Hillary is the most "moral" and patriotic of choices? A simple "I just like her" would do. Please dont speak for christians, I am one and have a different opinion of her. I would vote for her not because of morality but because she would be a "good commander in chief", where were you when the sniper bullets were flying...Hillary = morality...really???

Hillary "found her voice" on the necessity of Michigan's voice being heard when she needed it to be on her side... recall her words prior to February 5th "Michigan and Florida's contests will count for nothing".... a few weeks later "Michigan and Florida needs to be heard...count the votes...seat the delegates" Kind of disingenous if you ask me but then again "words dont matter"



thank you so much for shining light on the deficiencies of my posts. were i to post per your standards they would remain pro forma, perfunctory, and so redundant.

however, since you have appointed yourself my english teacher, i shall turn them around to satisfy your lower expectations.

i was however under the impression this was a political discussion anchored by polling data. sorry i was misinformed.



In this poll, Rep voters represents 12% of LV, which means around 62-63 peoples. Is it relevant to discuss a possible Limbaugh effect when there is more than 12% of margin of sampling error for this population?




You seem to have trouble with nuances in voting......thereby displaying your partisanship utterly and quite appallingly for someone who certainly isn't a complete idiot.

Let me explain something to you -

Republicans who voted for Obama early in the primary season were actually voting FOR him, rather than to sabatoge the primary proces - this was bore out in exit polling and general polling early and later on in the season (and reported on this site).

Later, when it became apparent to most everyone with a brain (and Rush et al) that Obama was going to be the Democratic nominee, the right wing nut jobs told traditional repubs to cross over and vote for clinton to create "havoc" - as it benefits their party the longer Clinton stays in the race. WHY? A few reasons -

1) The longer this Clinton "fights" on, the longer the presumptive nominee (Obama) is under fire from both Clinton and McCain, and the "bloodier" he gets. Clinton is either too stupid or too power-hungry to realize this but Dean isn't - and issued an order recently to tone down the BS - which she apparently has for now.

2) The longer the nomination takes - the more money Obama has to spend on ads against Clinton and campaigning- a lot more. That means less money to fight McCain. This is CRUCIAL, and the main reason for Rush's sabotage ploy.

3) And related to the above point, the longer this process takes, the less money Dems will have for other Congressional fights against Repubs in the fall. Both Clinton and Obama are now wasting money that could go to down ticket Dems in the fall. This is in the millions of dollars figure - no small amount. Money that could give nearly complete control of Congress to the Dems in November. The benefit of having these kinds of funds CAN NOT be underestimated. In many cases, well placed, effective ads will win a race for a candidate, even in Republican strongholds.

These reasons are why Leahy and Dodd are telling Clinton to shut it down. A Dem president is useless without a heavily Dem Congress to pass Obama's legislation.


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