Indiana 4/11 through 4/13
Clinton 55, Obama 39
Isn't Survey USA one of the most accurate polls for the democrats in the primary?
If so this is bad news for Obama, a 16 point difference that doesn't completely take his
bittergate statements into account
Posted on April 14, 2008 7:19 PM
Something has been off with SUSA lately. This poll, for instance, shows Obama losing the youth vote and losing Indianapolis. And getting just 39% overall in a state that neighbors Illinois. (Never mind that he hasn't gotten less than 40% since John Edwards dropped out.) I find all of that rather implausible.
Posted on April 14, 2008 7:26 PM
I'm quite sure that SUSA really PUSHES their leaners to deliver a response. (Because it's automated it asks the question several times) This is likely biasing these early-ish polls in Clinton's favor. For example, lets say the first "round" of questions results in 46-37 or something? Because Indiana's primary is so far away and not many people have likely been paying attention (Because, let's face it, very few people pay attention to politics as religiously as we do here), a lot of the initial undecideds will choose Clinton as their second choice because she's got name recognition. And Bill was a good president.
I suspect the same thing happened in PA with their 18-point poll. Obama's number was only just a little below most of the other polls out around the same time, but Clinton's was WAY WAY higher (50%+), indicating that leaners are swayed to Clinton, especially in a volatile race with a lot of undecideds (indicated by Susq. poll out today)
Posted on April 14, 2008 7:40 PM
You make some good points, Mike, and I don't really know enough about SUSA's methodology to affirm or deny. I am rather suspicious about these automated polling firms as a general matter.
I disagree a bit with you on one point: I do think that folks in Indiana are paying attention (we're only 3 weeks out right now), especially since both candidates have made a number of visits to the state. I did expect some Clinton upswing, since both she and Bill have made more overall visits than Obama. Still, the 55/39 spread just strikes me as implausible.
Here's a thought: Indiana is not a state that is polled very often (given how late they are in the nominating calendar). I wonder how familiar the polling firms really are with the demographic trends of the state (as opposed to, say, PA where a number of the reputable pollsters have an established past history going back years).
Posted on April 14, 2008 9:28 PM
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