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POLL: SurveyUSA Kentucky (5/3-5)


SurveyUSA

Kentucky
n=595
Clinton 62, Obama 28

 

Comments
political_junki:

Here come the rednecks! It should be a lesser of 2 evils for them though. Vote for a woman to avoid voting for a black!

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Dan:

Yikes. Those are some daunting numbers.

There's likely to be *some* improvement in Obama's numbers in the upcoming weeks, given that he hasn't even visited the state yet. But the bar is set so low, that's not saying much!

The key question, I think, is this: can Obama maintain viability in all of the congressional districts and thus prevent a complete Clinton delegate blowout? If not, then we're looking at a situation like Arkansas (which was his worst showing to date)--which would allow Clinton to net a significant number of delegates from KY and WV (perhaps as many as +40 from the two states combined).

As an Obama supporter, I hope that he wins IN and NC tonight, thereby hastening the end of this primary already. Sigh.

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Political_Junki:

That's an unfair assessment unless you are also going to accuse those african americans in southern states that went heavily toward Obama of being racists as well.

I think it has more to do with economic realities than race. Although inevitable both race and gender have some influence on voters.

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desirous:

Economic realities should not sway the electorate one way or the other: the two candidates aren't that different in policy. I have always wondered why Clinton scores so well among low-income and low-education voters. Without the high school dropout demographic, you can easily shave off five in every state.

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yegnev:

AnthonyLA:

In my mind the key difference is that most AAs are voting FOR the first AA candidate while many wildcats are voting AGAINST the black candidate.

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ca-indp:

[comment deleted]

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gomer0:

KY-5 is Eastern Kentucky and has 5 delegates. If Obama cant' get above 15% in that area where he is at 11% right now, Clinton would win all five delegates there.

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capsaicin:

Wow, as if the poll itself wasn't disturbing and depressing enough.. ca-indp, those repulsive comments don't even deserve the dignity of a response (although I have a hunch you'll get some anyway).

Big respect to that courageous 28% of Kentucky Democrats, however -- must be a pretty tough environment to be an Obama supporter.

I hate how this election has set back my prior assumptions about progress in America, by at least 20 years.

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Nickberry:

Re: Arkansas... Remember that Hillary was the First Lady there for 12 years and she lived there for 20 years.

People in Kentucky also knew and remember the Clintons from those years as well as the 8 years in the White House.... a very long history of familiarity... whereas Obama is still a newby.

And remember also that a majority of the electorate are women, and women tend to vote for Hillary (white, Hispanic)... unless African American and then they lean toward Obama.

It is disturbing that Obama supporters keep bringing up the "race card" against non-black voters. It is legitimate to discuss race in terms of demographics, but this unjustified accusation of low income white people as majority racists because they vote FOR Hillary is not justified.

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Knute:

At the risk of being the only adult in this conversation, let me make a remark about the actual poll in question.

So far all the polls have been by SUSA, and true to form, they tend to push the respondent and have low undecided numbers.

This may be appropriate and more accurate in the last few days of the campaign, but have not usually done as well this far out. I.e., BHO does have a window here to introduce himself - and has always cut into HRC's lead where he has chosen to compete agressively.

So far as demographics go, it is true that KT has a larger than average population of poorer, less-educated whites who are fearful of AAs, but it is also a state where there is a familiarity and easy mingling between races - less segregated in many ways than Chicago. There is also a growing manufacturing labor segment in the population, and these folks may be drawn to HRC on classic blue collar economic issues.

On the other hand, KT is not really a "big" state - and is not likely in play for the next GE. So, one wonders, will KT really help HRC since it does not buttress her "big state" / important GE state arguement. Also, even with a blowout here, HRC is only likely to net 10 to 12 delegates - which are likely to be offset in Oregon. All in all, the race really now moves to the competition for superdelegates.

Bottom line, KT and OR will be a small beauty-pagents in two beautiful states.

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Dan:

I still stand by my original comment: Kentucky and West Virginia have the potential to give Clinton a blow-out win on the order of magnitude of Arkansas.

If you want proof, take a look at the vote talles from counties that border KY and WV--i.e., southwest Ohio, southwest Virginia, and northern Tennessee. In some of these counties, Obama didn't even get double digits; rarely did he break the 30% mark.

I hope that Obama can remain competitive, but I fear the worst.

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Claude:

It is a shame that in this day and age in country like USA we still have people who are voting for Clinton just to vote against the black guy. If anyone seriously thinks that race is not an issue in these states they seriously need to think again. For every Virginia there is a Kentucky, for every Oregon there is a West Virginia, for every Georgia there is a Mississippi, for every Wisconsin there is an Alabama. Sad state of affairs.

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