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POLL: SurveyUSA MA Primary


SurveyUSA/WBZ-TV

Reps: Romney 57, McCain 34...
Dems: Clinton 57, Obama 33...

 

Comments
Anonymous:

Something doesn't quite look right about these Survey USA polls, but I can't put my finger on it. Maybe it's that he's only down by 6% according to Rasmussen. Maybe it's that the regions just look off for where his natural support ought to be. I don't know.

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ari:

Something doesn't quite look right about these Survey USA polls, but I can't put my finger on it. Maybe it's that he's only down by 6% according to Rasmussen. Maybe it's that the regions just look off for where his natural support ought to be. I don't know. Does anybody know about SUSA's methodology?

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csh:

Something doesn't quite look right about these Survey USA polls, but I can't put my finger on it.

Maybe you just don't like the results - The Northeast is Clinton Country!!

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Andrew:

ari, first you say something doesn't look right with the SUSA poll.

Then you admit you know nothing about its methodology. The only reason to support your theory that "something does not look right" in this poll is that it does not agree with Rasmussen. That is no valid reason.

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Ike:

I've thought the last two SurveyUSA results challenged common sense.

So I looked back at exit polls for Mass 2004 primary and 2004 general election. They show 54 and 51 percent female voters respectively. This SurveyUSA sample is 62 percent female.

Average African-American vote in the same two past elections is 4.5%, and this SU sample has it at 4% --about right as far as sampling goes.

Maybe Mass females are "fired up and ready to go" --we'll find out Tuesday [but if it happens I think it would be the first primary this cycle in which the gender breakdown of the vote went over 60F/40M, and I don't think that is likely, although we do have a lot of lazy men here in the Baystate]

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ClaudeB:

...what the previous poster said, plus the fact that only 9% of people polled in the SUSA poll are aged between 18-34, in a state with major universities...

Obama is obviously behind in MA, but by less than 24 points!

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JR12:

It's been a rough season for pollsters -- and it is entirely possible that these numbers are an accurate snapshot of what's going on in this race.

However, my sense is that the poll is showing hard support and not leaners, or late deciders. 7% other -- I can understand -- some of the Edwards support will vote for him even though he's dropped out.

3% undecided 5 days before the vote? Hmmm. It seems like it has been a long election season, but I would expect a number closer to 10 to 12% at this stage.

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Here is a list of polls that we don't need to condcut between now and February 5:

MA - Republican
AZ - Republican
AR - Republican
IL - Democractic
NY - Democratic

A focus on battleground states where we are getting no polling information would be far more interesting.

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Dave:

Blake, you'd be suprised about the movement in NY -- internal polling has lead both Obama and Clinton to pour a large amount of last-minute resources into the City, with rumor being that at least in the 5 boroughs, they are running neck and neck. Clinton gains most of her lead from upstate, so weather and enthusiasm could definitely effect the outcome. I do think Clinton will carry the state, but it will be by a much smaller margin (

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Phil:

I admit, I'm surprised by the gap in MA - yes, older white women are going to break for Clinton, but we're talking about a profoundly liberal state, which I would expect to benefit Obama, and a state that is teeming with college students, which should definitely benefit Obama. That plus the Kennedy endorsement makes me feel, instinctively, like this should be a much tighter race. The Rasmussen poll a few days ago had it at a 6 point gap. Someone's gotta be wrong. (Of course, it could be that the Edwards voters on the Rasmussen poll all went for Clinton, but that would be pretty shockingly out of line with the results in other states)

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