Personally I think all of SUSA's questions on VP are crap. They're really asking two questions at the same time and it's confounding for the question and confusing for the person answering.
It reads like a lightening round: Obama vs McCain? Obama/Webb vs McCain/Bloomberg? Obama/McCaskill vs. McCain/Bloomberg? McCain/Jindal vs. Obama/Biden? McCain/Fiorina vs. Obama/Bloomberg? And on and on and on.
11 questions about VP preference?! I can't imagine answering all that. I keep myself pretty well informed and I have no idea who Jindal and Fiorina are. And so what are we seeing. Maybe this respondent likes Webb, but Bloomberg even more. Maybe this one is confused. Maybe this one doesn't care at all and keeps giving the same answer.
I think the only question worth keeping and looking at in the survey is the first one.
I think a better methodology for starters would be focusing in on the candidate that the respondent has already said they're supporting. Something like, "You said you would vote for Barack Obama. If his running mate was New York mayor Michael Bloomberg, would you be more likely, less likely, or just as likely to vote for him?" Then you really get an idea of who that candidate's base supports. You could easily do the same by focusing in on the one they're not voting for. "If John McCain picked New York mayor Michael Bloomberg, etc."
Of course I think nobody is really thinking how the vice-presidential pick is going to affect their preference, so it's an almost impossible thing to measure. The best thing to do is to just wait a couple months after they both pick their VP's and then do the polling. Until then just measure closely how they're supported and see if there's a bump in either direction after their VP picks.
I see that Biden as Obama VP fares very well here. And as Senator Claire McCaskill (MO) is a significant negative as in other polls, including Missouri.
I do not think it is a woman thing except possibly Hillary supporters may react because she is not Hillary. But honestly, McCaskill has only been in Congress since January 2007. And she has only appeared in most recent times as just a talking head for Obama. No one knows her.
That is exactly what I thought. Romney is currently on top of McCain's VP list. If he becomes the VP candidate the Dems might have to invest substantial resources to hold Massachusetts, since Obama does not run very strong there.
Comments
Interesting that all the VP possibilities mentioned here actually hurt BO? who the hec does he run with??? Clinton???
Posted on June 30, 2008 3:36 PM
Personally I think all of SUSA's questions on VP are crap. They're really asking two questions at the same time and it's confounding for the question and confusing for the person answering.
It reads like a lightening round: Obama vs McCain? Obama/Webb vs McCain/Bloomberg? Obama/McCaskill vs. McCain/Bloomberg? McCain/Jindal vs. Obama/Biden? McCain/Fiorina vs. Obama/Bloomberg? And on and on and on.
11 questions about VP preference?! I can't imagine answering all that. I keep myself pretty well informed and I have no idea who Jindal and Fiorina are. And so what are we seeing. Maybe this respondent likes Webb, but Bloomberg even more. Maybe this one is confused. Maybe this one doesn't care at all and keeps giving the same answer.
I think the only question worth keeping and looking at in the survey is the first one.
I think a better methodology for starters would be focusing in on the candidate that the respondent has already said they're supporting. Something like, "You said you would vote for Barack Obama. If his running mate was New York mayor Michael Bloomberg, would you be more likely, less likely, or just as likely to vote for him?" Then you really get an idea of who that candidate's base supports. You could easily do the same by focusing in on the one they're not voting for. "If John McCain picked New York mayor Michael Bloomberg, etc."
Of course I think nobody is really thinking how the vice-presidential pick is going to affect their preference, so it's an almost impossible thing to measure. The best thing to do is to just wait a couple months after they both pick their VP's and then do the polling. Until then just measure closely how they're supported and see if there's a bump in either direction after their VP picks.
Posted on June 30, 2008 4:20 PM
I see that Biden as Obama VP fares very well here. And as Senator Claire McCaskill (MO) is a significant negative as in other polls, including Missouri.
I do not think it is a woman thing except possibly Hillary supporters may react because she is not Hillary. But honestly, McCaskill has only been in Congress since January 2007. And she has only appeared in most recent times as just a talking head for Obama. No one knows her.
Posted on June 30, 2008 4:55 PM
Why did they leave out Romney? Makes no darn sense.
Posted on June 30, 2008 5:37 PM
That is exactly what I thought. Romney is currently on top of McCain's VP list. If he becomes the VP candidate the Dems might have to invest substantial resources to hold Massachusetts, since Obama does not run very strong there.
Posted on July 1, 2008 7:50 AM
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