Pollster.com

Articles and Analysis

 

POLL: SurveyUSA Minnesota


SurveyUSA

Minnesota
Obama 47, McCain 46
Sen:
Coleman (R-i) 52, Franken (D) 40
Coleman 41, Franken 31, Ventura (i) 23

 

Comments
Andrew_in_California:

Hmm these crosstabs are interesting. Obama wins old people and McCain wins younger people? Bizzaro-world.

____________________

jacortina:

Those are some rather odd crosstabs.

Tied in the 18-34 age group and McCain ahead in the 18-50 while Obama has large lead in over age 50?

McCain ahead in the main urban region of the Twin Cities, but behind everywhere else?

____________________

pluck:

I think this poll will prove to be an outlier. The age data contradict everything we know about Obama. At the very least, this had to be reconfirmed elsewhere before being taken too seriously. Also, the SUSA party weighings in Minnesota look to be overly biased toward Republicans.

____________________

eternaltriangle:

Or maybe they aren't too weird. Remember that Minnesota, in the 80's, was probably the strongest state for the Dems. Since then it has gotten consistently more conservative. Perhaps whatever is happening there demographically has ensured that young people are more conservative than old.

Old Minnesotans are much more likely to have been members of unions, while the conservatism of generation X (the one age group McCain leads strongly) tends to be missed by most analysts (generation X and the pre-boomers tend to be the most conservative, and most likely to vote Republican, while millenials and boomers are more liberal).

The SUSA poll taken in early May of the Franken -Coleman race found that Coleman tied among millenials, led 15 points among gen-X, led 6 points among boomers and 20 points among pre-boomers. So the trend doesn't fit exactly...

In general, the way age is divvied up in polls bugs me a little. Most analysis finds cohort effects, rather than aging effects (contrary to the notion that "people get conservative as they get older"). The experiences, and the economic circumstances that each generation was brought up in are what makes age matter. Thus, the GI generation was probably the most socialist in American history (though also hawkish and socially conservative), having come of age around the great depression. By contrast, generation X came of age at the peak of globalization and the IT boom, and is much more inclined to give capitalism a chance.

____________________

skibum1981:

Frankly, I believe this SurveyUSA poll is off; they've showed the race about 10 points tighter than Rasmussen and Star Tribune.

____________________

carl29:

This is totally off! Obama and McCain tied among those under 30? Obama ahead by double digits among those above 50? Obama losing urban areas and winning rural? Is it me or this poll looks very, very weird?

I think that these numbers will be good news for McCain if the crosstabs were not all messed up. How does it come that Rasmussen released a poll on June 13, this past Friday, showing Obama 52% vs. McCain 39%. For the last three months, every Rasmussen poll from MN has had Obama over 50% and McCain under 40%. The bad thing is that Rasmussen doesn't show crosstabs, so we can't compare.

Another thing, I went to Real Clear Politics and check the polls from MN and noticed that SurveyUsa has constantly show the race much closer than the other pollster. For example, the previous SurveyUsa poll in Minnesota was in 05/16 - 05/18 and showed Obama 47% vs. McCain 42%; however, during that time another poll came out from Minnesota,from 05/12 - 05/15, this one from the Star Tribune which showed Obama 51% vs. McCain 38%, with the difference that this poll had a much larger sample than SurveyUsa's, 1117 RV vs. 600 RV. I would like to see a third pollster coming out with numbers from MN in these days to see who is right.

____________________



Post a comment




Please be patient while your comment posts - sometimes it takes a minute or two. To check your comment, please wait 60 seconds and click your browser's refresh button. Note that comments with three or more hyperlinks will be held for approval.

MAP - US, AL, AK, AZ, AR, CA, CO, CT, DE, FL, GA, HI, ID, IL, IN, IA, KS, KY, LA, ME, MD, MA, MI, MN, MS, MO, MT, NE, NV, NH, NJ, NM, NY, NC, ND, OH, OK, OR, PA, RI, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VT, VA, WA, WV, WI, WY, PR