Coleman 51, Franken 41
looking at the survey usa methodology it becomes apparent that colemen's name was always put first, which gives an unfair bias to that candidate.
a much more fair poll would randomize the order that the names are mentioned.
Posted on March 17, 2008 11:42 AM
If Dave's comment is correct about name order, it may suggest why Franken's numbers are so (relatively)low among younger (and presumably less engaged) voters. The numbers as a whole run counter to an earlier Rasmussen survey that showed Franken with a slight lead.
I don't follow Minnesota politics to know if there is some explanation for the results (and the differences) or whether name recognition is the major factor here. In any event, it appears that Franken has managed to overcome his earlier problems of being taken seriously among older voters who (presumably) might be the most difficult to attract.
Probably too early to determine which (if either) is correct or a reliable guide to the November election. In any case, it's an interesting data point.
Posted on March 17, 2008 1:33 PM
One more thing. I wonder if the reference to "DFL candidate Al Franken" had any impact. I realize that DFL (Democrat/Farmer/Labor) is a common term for Democrats in Minnesota, but I wonder if it tended to depress the percentage for Franken among the least engaged resondents.
Posted on March 17, 2008 1:39 PM
SurveyUSA had this as a 1-point race just a month ago, and there's been very little news.
My guess is that the truth lies inbetween. But I can't make sense of this one's assertion that Franken's strongest region is western MN - that just doesn't make any sense at all to me.
Lastly, the "DFL" confusion may be an issue, since we have had some in-migration over the last decade. However, I don't think that is a large factor. We're used to that 'round here.
(if anyone needs some space just 3 blocks from the Republican convention, send me a note! I can let a floor of my house out for a reasonable price!)
Posted on March 17, 2008 2:58 PM
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