7/29-31/08; 1,459 LV, 2.6%
McCain 49, Obama 44 (June: McCain 50, Obama 43)
Nixon (D) 48, Hulshof (R) 42
Nixon 50, Steelman (R) 41
Statistically insignificant 1 point loss for McCain and 1 point gain for Obama. Still 7% undecided.
Posted on August 1, 2008 9:04 PM
Thanks for the analysis! Really interesting!
Posted on August 1, 2008 9:19 PM
Although the change is not much, it does push the race within twice the margin of error. This means that while McCain has the edge, it is not a statistically significant edge. I.E., he will need to spend money here, money he doesn't have.
Posted on August 2, 2008 5:13 AM
The RNC funds + McCain funds are competitive with Obama/DNC funds. The NRA funds vs. MoveOn.org are also a wash... and so on. I think there is plenty of money on both sides.
And as Romney proved in the GOP primary... there is only so much money can buy.
Posted on August 2, 2008 10:44 AM
Actually not my analysis... but rather gleaned from the poll narrative.
Posted on August 2, 2008 10:45 AM
McCain 46.4% to Obama 46.6%... that would be one version using the margin of error.
Note: Missouri is listed as a toss-up state... It always is a battleground state. No surprises for either candidate that they will have to spend TIME in Missouri... as Missouri voters expect to see and hear the candidates in person.
Posted on August 2, 2008 10:51 AM
Doesn't add much to the picture right now. If MO goes to JM, it is expected. If it goes to BO, so will OH, VA and CO, hence it will not matter imho. I would still keep my eye on OH/CO/VA. For BO CO & VA may be easiest to win of the battlegrounds & he only needs 1 from FL, CO, MO, OH or VA.
Posted on August 2, 2008 4:23 PM
Survey USA polled Missouri residents one day before the primary. Clinton lead by 11. The next day, Obama won Missouri by 2. Obama also received more votes than John McCain that night.
02/02 - 02/03 706 LV 52 41 - Clinton +11.0
Posted on August 2, 2008 4:56 PM
"For BO CO & VA may be easiest to win of the battlegrounds & he only needs 1 from FL, CO, MO, OH or VA."
I think Colorado will be easier than Virgina.
I seem him holding all of Kerry's states while winning New Mexico and Iowa. Now he needs...
1.) Nevada for the tie.
2.) Two of Alaska, Montana, North or South Dakota for the win, and he's in striking distance in all four states.
3.) Or any of Colorado, Virginia, Indiana, Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, and polls show him in the lead in half of those states.
It's not over, but Obama has the advantage.
Posted on August 2, 2008 6:31 PM
agreed. but i do think obama should run some commercials like this in the next few weeks -
Posted on August 2, 2008 7:04 PM
Sorry to be a stickler for facts but the state official primary results for Missouri are as follows:
Barack Obama 406,917 49.3%
Hillary Rodham Clinton 395,185 47.9%
Which is a win for Obama by 1.4%... not 2%. All the reporting used 1%... as is standard for rounding numbers.
The Republican primary vote split 3 ways as follows:
John McCain 194,053 33.0%
Mike Huckabee 185,642 31.5
Mitt Romney 172,329 29.3
Posted on August 2, 2008 9:45 PM
McCain at +5 is consistent with 538 projection at McCain +3.5 and RCP at McCain +2. Assuming McCain wins Missouri, Obama needs Ohio or Virginia or Colorado or Nevada to win.
Posted on August 3, 2008 7:42 PM
"McCain wins Missouri, Obama needs Ohio or Virginia or Colorado or Nevada to win."
And Obama is leading in all four according to the latest poll in each state, and three of the four according to Pollster's trends.
By opening the map, Obama has given himself countless paths to victory. By deciding certain states are safe, McCain is not giving himself a plan B. This is the same mistake Hillary Clinton made. In fact, it is the same mistake the Republicans made when attacking Iraq.
No plan-B is really, really bad.
Posted on August 4, 2008 5:37 AM
much of what you say has validity.
problem is that mccain has one third the money to work and as such must be more selective.
your candidate has coffers busting at the seam and can work anything his way.
caveat emptor: there is such a thing as flooding the market and annoying voters a phenomenon that came into play in ohio and pa.
hillary had one third the ads running but won because obama was annoying the airwaves.
this is the same phenomenon at play in the phantom berlin bounce.
so personally, i hope obama buys up everything in sight.
Posted on August 4, 2008 9:06 AM
There's a typo at /polls/mo/08-mo-pres-ge-mvo.html
This poll is listed as 7/31-29/08.
It should be listed as 7/29-31/08 (with the 31 and 29 swapped).
Posted on August 4, 2008 11:53 AM
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