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POLL: SurveyUSA Missouri Primary


SurveyUSA/KCTV-TV/KSDK-TV

Missouri
Clinton 48, Obama 44... McCain 34, Romney 30, Huckabee 28

 

Comments
Andrew:

What Obama supporters should be worried about is the probability that Obama's momentum may have reached his peak. I doubt Hillary Clinton will mention the name of any historical black figure, since she knows she will be taken out of context no matter what.

Obama will not win any state primaries until Super Tuesday either, so the fawning pro-Obama press coverage will be insignificant, IMO.

Don't get me wrong, the media will try to manufacture scandals during this next week, but I don't see much material they could use right now.

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RS:

@Andrew:
I am not so sure the press is fawning over Obama - e.g. in the previous debate, the talk coming out was more about Tony Rezko than Wal-Mart.

If you really wanted another Clinton scandal, the good ol' NYT (which has endorsed Senator Clinton, mind you), has this nugget:

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/31/us/politics/31donor.html?ex=1202533200&en=6775e95ab3b1b8f5&ei=5070&emc=eta1

Enjoy!

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ca-ind:

I agree, Obama's momentum has peaked. He can't get any more closer to Hillary and he is going to lose on Feb5.

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Liberal Chris:

Uh, Obama won South Carolina by 28%, and that was a primary. You're right he won't win any of the non-existent other primaries from now until Super Tuesday.

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Chuck:

Would it be possible to give margin of error alongside condensed poll results?

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Chantal:

Margins of error don't matter. They are all somewhere around 5, plus or minus 1 or 2 (wink wink) but most pollsters don't release the correct margin of errors. Most of them weight by some sort of demographic, and that changes the error margin, but they never report it anyway. Just assume its around 5% and you'll be okay.

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Phil:

I don't see the logic for saying Obama is peaking - since SC he's dominated the news cycles pretty consistently and pretty favorably - first with the SC win, then the Kennedy endorsement. He lost a news cycle to Clinton on Florida, they both lost one to Edwards when he dropped out, and then he took one with his massive January fund-raising before getting a split one with Clinton for the debate. We've still got a good 2-3 news cycles until Super Tuesday, but with a strong run-in of news coverage and (apparently) the capital to spend on ads in 20 of the 22 Super Tuesday states (writing off Oklahoma and putting Illinois in the bank) while already starting on the post-2/5 states I have to say, it looks to me like he'll be competitive in most of the states, and pull a good number of delegates even in CA and NY, along with a decent smattering of states along the way. Proportional allocation makes it tricky to make a call, and I've seen differing accounts on how CA and NY are allocated, but I expect we will see, delegate-wise, a very close race after 2/5.

And I think the immediate aftermath of 2/5 favors Obama: Virginia/Maryland/DC is tailor made for him, and with Maine, Nebraska, and Washington being caucuses that leaves the only other primary Louisiana, which he ought to take handily.

I see a long and competitive race ahead, and I'm hard pressed to pick a favorite.

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Hannah:

Obama peaked? I don't think so.

I attended the Obama rally in Phoenix, AZ two nights ago and there were over 13,000 people there. I have been to a number of political rallies over the years and the crowd was more excited at this one that all the others combined. I really believe he is still picking up steam.

When the Clintons have come to town in the last week and a half, they were lucky to draw over 2000 people.

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Jake:

Obama peaked? Yeh right.

All polls show momentum on his side. The question more likely is whether he can peak in time for super-tuesday.

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Chris:

Obama's support will continue to grow... no doubt in my mind. The longer the race goes on the better it is for him. There is limited time before Super Tuesday but things won't be settled by Tuesday.

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Anyone notice how Hillary has now changed her stump speech to be more like Obama's? He has the momentum, but I agree time is not on his side. His expectations should be stay competitive on Feb 5. He would be cooked if the dems did not use proportional representation.

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