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POLL: SurveyUSA North Carolina (4/26-28)


SurveyUSA

North Carolina
n=727 likely voters, 4/26-28
Obama 49, Clinton 44

 

Comments
airhawk86:

North Carolina may be in play, Obama needs to right the ship NOW. Clinton is not getting out of this race in June if she sees any chance of winning it. If Hillary wins NC and IN we are going to convention.

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Dan:

Take a deep breath, airhawk. Rasmussen and PPP and ARG all came out this week showing Obama with a healthy double digit lead. SUSA here looks like a real outlier.

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axt113:

The polls are really irritating me, a few polls say Obama is up in Indiana, others say he's down another says he's tied, then in NC some say its a big lead others say its close. I mean c'mon give us a break here.

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Patrick:

Any single digit win by Obama in NC would be bad for him. If it was accompanied by a big Clinton win in IN (esp. by 10+ pts), it would be a disaster for him. The media has told us repeatedly that NC is "tailor made" for him demographically and that he is still outspending Clinton at least 3 to 1. All the pundits and all the undecided superdelegates are expecting a huge victory for him there. If it is at all close (and if she carries whites overwhelmingly), the race won't end any time soon. This is especially true if he continues to slip in the national polls.

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airhawk86:

I think there is a bad trend for Obama developing. I still think he is almost assured to eventually be the nominee. But still I could really see NC finishing like 51-49.

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damitajo1:

Yes, Go Clinton. I hope she can pull it off. That would be so interesting to watch.

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Shadar:

Actually polls like this could help Obama. Remember, it's all about expectations. If people start having some doubt about who might win NC then a 10% win for Obama seems big. If people expect a 20 point blowout and he wins by 10% then it is small.

Same goes for Indiana. If polls show Obama is behind in Indy there is less pressure on him. If he wins by 1% it is huge and even if he loses by 2-3% it's not so bad if a bunch of polls show him down 5-10%. If the polls all showed him ahead and he lost it would be bad news.

Of course if all the polls start showing him slipping then it could cause a ripple effect and cause him even more bad press which hurts him more. So it's a mixed bag. The real decider about all the bad press he is getting will be the election on Tues. If clinton wins both or cuts the NC lead to within 5 then it will be big news. If Obama wins both it is completely over. There is no way for Hillary to spin a double Obama win after a month of horrid press.

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Tybo:

It's too late to lower the expectations of a double digit win for Obama.
Anything less than 12 pts will look like a loss.

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kingsbridge77:

A poll is not an outlier just because it differs from most other polls. How do we know that everyone is wrong except for SUSA? Remember when in NH every pollster was wrong?

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IdahoMulato:

I think SUSA has performed poorly after 2nd super Tuesday. I have the feeling that they've been jacking up Clinton's numbers.

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airhawk86:

I know your pro obama Idaho. But thats just not true SUSA is still the best.

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Tybo:

SUSA was one of the top four polls for the penn. outcome.

Rasmussen and Gallup... no.

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Another Mike:

I think this race is going to June, but ending then. If Obama blew Clinton out in NC and won in IN, then perhaps Clinton would drop out. But, even if that happens, I think she stays in since she should win landslide victories in KY and WV. After all the primaries are done, however, the supers will weigh in. One of the two will have clear lead in delegates. The other will drop out. This will not go to the convention--there's no way the supers will let that happen.

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cinnamonape:

As I have been pointing out for months, you guys are comparing apples and tomatos. SUSA is generally accurate only in their FINAL poll. In their polls prior to the day or two before the election they vary from the final result considerably. Other polls are better "predictors" at that point. These then "overshoot the results" as the election occurs.

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americaferreraisafatho:

mike - agreed.

it will be over in june. and the clintons will have to go on the "support obama" tour with her tail between her legs. That WILL be fun to watch, damitjao1.

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Rasmus:

Tybo,

Yes, and Zogby and ARG and Suffolk were closer in PA than SUSA.
Does that mean they are better pollsters?
No.
SUSA had some great polls this season, like CA or NY, OH, IL but they also were wrong sometimes (SC, for example, or AL,with a predicted tie, MO with a 11-point Clinton or CT with a 2 point Obama margin.)

But I think their Tracking Polls are not so reliable as their last poll before the election.

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tom brady:

It would help if someone could explain why SUSA is more likely to get it right in the final poll before the election, while others "overshoot" the final results, but are more accurate beforehand. What exactly is the going on here - can you explain the logic? Is it something to do with the collective psychology of those being polled? Or the likely voter screens? What causes these systemic differences (if they actually exist)?

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