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POLL: SurveyUSA North Carolina


SurveyUSA

North Carolina

Pres: McCain 51, Obama 43... Clinton 49, McCain 43

Sen: Dole 50, Hagen 46

Gov: Perdue 52, McCrory 45

 

Comments
Nickberry:

Wow... Hillary beats McCain in North Carolina.... and it appears the women's vote is definitely a major factor. McCain wins with women by 1% against Obama and loses women by 19% against Hillary.

Also....28% of Democrats cross over to vote for McCain if Obama is the candidate, whereas if Hillary is the candidate 17% cross over.

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Adam_Il:

Is this correct? If it is then it's a slap in the face of Obama.

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Tragic Chix:

It would be a really bad sign for Obama if it was right, but Survey USA had him underperforming in their final primary poll, and it doesn't track with other surveys of the state.

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starbase135:

Well, the margins in this poll are so significant that we can dispute the actual numbers but not the current trend: advantage Clinton, disadvantage Obama.

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starbase135:

Well, the margins in this poll are so significant that we can dispute the actual numbers but not the current trend: advantage Clinton, disadvantage Obama.

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BLeigh82:

I think this looks about right. It really shouldn't be surprising that there is some back lash from Senator Clinton's supporters toward Senator Obama after his primary victory in North Carolina. Especially, with the wounds still fresh. Afterall, it was only 2 weeks ago.

I think these number are encouraging for both Democrats. I certainly don't anticipate Senator Clinton's supporters crossing over in that great a margin come November. (same for Senator Obama's supporters should she find a way to pull it off)

Ultimately, I'd expect Senator McCain to win this state. However, if he has to spend a significant amount of time and money in states like North Carolina leading up to the general elecion...that is not a good sign for him come November.

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Nickberry:

The crossover vote is there. That is what Obama needs to really worry about in every state... whether one calls them Reagan Democrats or whatever.

Apparently, this also tracks with Kerry's loss of votes to Bush. Kerry lost 16% Democrats to Bush... and 56% Independents. Kerry lost this state 56%-44%. Again the key for Hillary's strength is the female vote.

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killias2:

This is the first poll in almost a year to have Clinton with a lead in NC. In fact, I think its the first poll in almost a year to have a Democrat with a lead in NC. NC is not going Democrat.

Clinton is riding high right now because she hasn't really been attacked by either opponent and because the right-wing media has been very kind to her. If she was the likely nominee, then I bet the numbers would be reversed.

As is, I still think this is an outlier.

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Shadar:

This poll goes completely against the message of Hillary's campaign.

How can you argue that you are the best general election candidate because you won the big states... and then also argue that a state you got blown out in you are gonna do better in the general in.

Obviously the entire "I won it in the primary thus my opponent will lose it in the general" argument is just silly. It always was and it always will be. Obama outperforms Hillary in many states she won previously and she outperforms him in a few he won.

This poll is absolutely amazing if it is true. It is the most shocking poll in the entire election cycle. If true it shows that basically every single Obama supporter is willing to support whatever democrat wins... but hillary supporters are not willing to support other democrats, only their choice. Of course we all know this won't hold up, every week that passes after Hillary drops out will be a small uptick in Obama numbers and a downtick in crossover votes.

The only question is how many people vote against their party because their favorite candidate didn't win. Cutting off your nose to spite your face comes to mind.

I think we now know which candidate has the truest and best democrats behind them, Obama supporters will support hillary... hillary supporters wont support obama. Both candidates agree on 99.9% of issues. Guess we know who is voting on issues and who is voting on other metrics. So much for Hillary's gender bias complaints.. doesn't seem there is one among obama supporters.

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Tybo:

"I think we now know which candidate has the truest and best democrats behind them, Obama supporters will support hillary... hillary supporters wont support obama. Both candidates agree on 99.9% of issues"

the difference is that obama says one thing, then does another.
Take his "present" vote on abortion. He says he supports choice, but he didn't vote for it, then he made up a story about that decision coming from outside...nope, he made that decision.

Obama supporters believe what he says he'll do.
Obama non-supporters count on what he has done.

(see abortion, Roberts -who he supported for the supreme court,the war _voted for full funding,missing the vote on the iraq guard.

he's good with words, but the actions don't match up

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Nickberry:

Both candidates do NOT agree on 99.9% of the issues. Quit the propaganda. Disagreements include:

1. Universal Health Care
2. Gun Control
3. Foreign Policy
4. Energy Policy (Note: Obama voted FOR Bush/Cheney energy bill AGAINST other Democrats... including Hillary.)
5. Florida and Michigan

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Nick08:

You have to be kidding me. I dont this poll is really a outlier as much as I think it just shows that revenge vote by so-called democrated women crossing over and voting for McCain. I dont think come November it will be like it is now, but I must say I think it would be incredibly sad if women crossed over and voted for McCain who will surely appoint judges that will overturn Roe v. Wade just because of their antipathy for Obama. Democrats should want a democrat in the White house, no matter male, female, white or black. But lets say Clinton somehow won the nomination. AA turnout would be historically low, but its more loyal than crossing over and voting Republican.

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damitajo1:

Nick, I am black, and I am one of those defectors for Clinton. I will vote McCain -- the first time for a Republican in 25 years of voting. It's very real. I am a leftist, black male civil rights lawyer. If I feel comfortable crossing over, just imagine how many moderates and women will defect. I see troubling days ahead....

Shadar -- I have heard the "true Democrat" line boasted, often by some who are voting for the first time in their lives. I have voted for Democrats in local, state, and national elections for 25 years. Most of the time, my preferred candidate does not get the nomination, and I stay with the a party. This time, the process seems a bit unnerving, and I won't go into details here because I have done it elsewhere. But this is not a "sour grapes" thing -- please, I've been through a lot more than having a candidate lose. But the Democrats do not OWN us. We can exercise our right to vote the way we seem fit. If the Democrats only wanted "true" Democrats, why do they have "open primaries"?


So what does all of this political talk mean for polls? Well, it will be interesting to see how this maps out. The optimistic Dems say that everyone will just come together. I guess this assumes that Obama still has these great unifying powers that we have yet to see. The cynical side says that the splits are too deep, and that it will cost Obama in swing states or in states he had hoped to "put in play." Time will tell. Should be an exciting season.

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nktol:

The trend is brutally real here, the pressumptive democratic nominee is doing way worse than the fading away candidate Clinton, against a moderate republican in battle states.

HC has always been a stronger national candidate than Obama, the democrats played right into GOP's hand. Not even HC as VP will help because Obama's negatives (expect more and further exposed by GOP's 527 blitz), "Wright", "Elitist", "Liberal", "Inexperience", "his wife and her comments", "Ayers connection", "talk with extremist tyrans", "tax increase", and of course "race", are too much to overcome when there is a rather moderate war hero and experienced GOP candidate as an alternative. McCain's negatives, quite a few, won't hurt him as much.

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nktol:

The DNC is pissing off the silent mass of blue collar whites, women and hispanics, and FL & MI voters. Not a good thing at all for November.

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