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POLL: SurveyUSA North Carolina


SurveyUSA
7/12-14/08; 676 LV, 3.8%

North Carolina
McCain 50, Obama 45
Sen: Dole (R-i) 54, Hagan (D) 42
Gov: Perdue (D) 47, McCrory (R) 46, Munger (L) 3

 

Comments
marctx:

Dole's 54% insures a republican win in this state. The Obama cultists will have to drink some poison kool-aid in another state.

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carl29:

The republican senator gets more support than McCain in the state? What's that? On the one hand Obama out performs the democratic nominee for the senate, and on the other hand, McCain under performs the republican nominee. There are at least 4% of voters who are going to pull the lever of the Republican Dole, but not for the republican McCain!!!

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josephj:

@marctx: check the overall NC trend chart for a good idea of the state's political direction. Good night.

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Rasmus:

@josephj: check the overall NC trend chart for a good idea of the state's political direction [and see that Obamas numbers are only kept up by the Zogby Interactive poll, otherwise the state is TOTALLY stable]. Good night.

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Clint Cooper:

Crazy samples:

Survey USA's sample is 19% African American

Zogby's sample is 33% African American

According to the 2004 exit poll, the actual voting electorate in North Carolina was 26% African American.

I suspect Zogby's figure will be closer to the actual numbers on election day. And what is remarkable is that both Zogby and Survey USA are showing Obama capturing 31% of the white vote in North Carolina. If he manages to pull 31% of the white vote there on election day he will win the state.

An Obama victory in NC would look like this:

North Carolina

.................Obama.....McCain.....Barr/Nader/Other
White 69%...31%.......65%..........4%
Black 27%....94%.......4%...........2%
Other 4%.....50%.......46%..........4%

Which results in:
Obama 48.77%
McCain 47.77%
Barr/Nader/Other 3.46%

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sherman:

Dole's 54% insures a Republican win? How so? I think Dole's 54% insures a Dole win, but not much more than that. Even with a 12% margin, a larger turnout of Democrats could ruin Dole's day and certainly put Obama over the top. Anyone talking about Kool-aid shouldn't be the one who is overly optimistic about the Republican's chances these days. Sure Dole will win, but Republicans will still lose three or four senate seats this cycle, and that's a GOOD result for them.

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onelightonvoice:

keep livin in fantasy land, rasmus/marctx.....after election day I'm quite sure we won't see your type posting on this board. if we do, you'll surely be spewing some variety of, "see, what had happened was..."

I'm getting the eggs ready....

Btw, have you heard, McCain has a GREAT sense of humor! I really love his penchant for wife-beating and rape jokes......I'm sure that'll help with the female vote this November.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/07/15/sources-recall-mccains-jo_n_112955.html


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C.S.Strowbridge:

"after election day I'm quite sure we won't see your type posting on this board."

That's my dream. I would love to see a sharp decrease in people who post like that.

I don't think the Democrats will win North Caroline, however, to say the poll numbers show it will be impossible or that one would have to be blinded by ideology to think they could is a joke.

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Undecided:

According to Anneberg Political FactCheck... As of April 28, 2008 --African Americans represent 21 percent of North Carolina's registered voters.

Therefore, the SurveyUSA sample is more realistic than Zogby.

Where Obama is in trouble is depending on the "youth" vote, which is a major factor for him in NC. According to one of the recent national polls, young people who plan to vote in the fall has dropped to 66% whereas the Republicans who plan to vote remains stable at above 80%. I will post poll link when I find the specific source.

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Clint Cooper:

Marctx - this site requires you to post a civil and intelligent comment. Your comment was neither civil nor intelligent.

Anyway...

it appears there are some people who are confused by Dole's large support in NC and McCain's smaller support base. There is usually a discrepancy between local candidates and national candidates when it comes to in-state support. Dole solidifies her base of support more than McCain does and gets more African American support than McCain does (e.g. McCain is running against an African American candidate, Dole is not). She gets 15% of AA support whereas McCain only gets single digits.

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Clint Cooper:

Undecided - yes African Americans make up 21% of registered voters. But according to the 2004 exit poll from the general election, they made up 26% of people who actually showed up on election day. And if the presence of Obama on the ballot causes there to be a massive increase in black turnout, Zogby's numbers will be proven more accurate than Survey USA's.

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Undecided:

Not if the African American voters are all pretty well maxed out. In other words, in the southern states African Americans ALREADY vote in larger numbers... as do white Republicans. The vote that can make the significant difference is the youth vote who have a historically low voter turnout rate.

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Paul:

538 has Dole as 87% likely to win, consistent with this kind of lead.

As to Presidential race, 538 is projecting McCain +4, Pollster.com is showing a dead heat, and RCP is showing McCain +4 and a toss-up. Overall, appears leaning McCain.

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kingsbridge77:

I suspect Zogby's figure will be closer to the actual numbers on election day.

You mean the same zogby who just said Obama is ahead in Arizona?

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Clint Cooper:

Undecided, just fyi, the AA vote wasn't maxed out in 2004 although it was high in terms of percentage of registered black voters turning out. Approximately 900,000 black voters out of around 1,100,000 registered turned out for 82% of registered black voters.

As of now, there are 1,211,237 black voters registered in North Carolina and those numbers are increasing by the week - and at a much faster pace, relative to other groups.

There are approximately 1,350,000 African Americans who are eligible to register in the upcoming election in NC so it does appear that there is a clear push within the African American community in North Carolina to register to vote.

Another thing to remember is that Kerry got 85% of the AA vote in NC in 2004. Obama could easily get over 90% and I would be surprised if he didn't get well over that.

If 1.1 million black voters show up in NC in 2008 and 95% of them go for Barack, that alone would net him 280,000 over Kerry's figure. Having said that, that will not in and of itself deliver the state to Obama. He will need to do well among the 19-34 white voters like you suggest in order to have a shot at winning the state.

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Clint Cooper:

Kingsbridge I am refering to the percentage of African American voters of the total electorate in North Carolina?

Let's make a bet. I'll bet you a hundred dollars it will be closer to 33% than 19%.

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Clint Cooper:

Kingsbridge, I am referring to the percentage of African Americans of the total electorate in North Carolina.

Let's make a bet. I will bet you a hundred dollars it will be closer to 33% than 19%.

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