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POLL: SurveyUSA North Carolina (8/9-11)


SurveyUSA
8/9-11/08; 655 LV, 3.9%
Mode: IVR

North Carolina
McCain 49, Obama 45
(July: McCain 50, Obama 45)

Sen: Dole (R-i) 46, Hagan (D) 41, Cole (L) 7
(July: Dole 54, Hagan 42)

Gov: Perdue (D) 47, McCrory (R) 44, Munger (L) 5
(July: Perdue 47, McCrory 46, Munger 3)

 

Comments
axt113:

McCain still has a four point lead, but Obama has a chance, if he can increase turnout he may be able to take it, we'll see after the conventions if there is any movement his way

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brambster:

I've always thought that Dole's seat might be the dark horse pickup for the Democrats this cycle, and things are certainly improving on that front. I'm still far from optimistic though.

Cole is pulling support primarily from Republicans and Independents in this poll, and weak third-party candidates typically over-poll all the way up to the actual election. I would give 2/3 of those votes back to Dole.

Survey USA also seems to be consistently finding many more Democrats than Republicans, with a 13 point majority in this poll, and a similar amount in the previous one. The 2004 exit poll (when Republicans were still strong) showed 1 point more for Republican identifiers than Democrats, so I really doubt a 14 point swing, though I don't doubt that the swing in NC would be larger than in most states.

There are some other smaller demographic issues as well such as a larger than expected Dole vote from AA part of the sample.

You have to wonder what would happen to this race if the national media decides that it is in play. In 2006 this made all the difference in the world as candidates like Carter sunk from almost contention into oblivian in NV while Webb ended up beating out a once leading Republican presidential prospect.

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sulthernao:

I wonder how much of an effect college students coming in for fall will have on this race. That could potentially be another couple of points for Obama

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zotz:

Now the Republicans are just doing probing attacks, searching for weaknesses. The real hardball campaigning will start in Sept. after the conventions. I wish Obama would pich Hillary. He needs someone that can hit hard. She can be a flame thrower if she gets mad enough and they are afraid of her. All this stuff about how she wouldn't fit in with the "new politics" is pure poppycock. You do what you gotta do. I only hope Barack reads this post.

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TheVoice_99:

I agree, Hillary would be a decent choice. However, way too much baggage - mainly Bill.

Also, the convention timetable has already proved that Hillary will not be the VP.

Anyway, I find it interesting that certain people on this board continually are posting offensive simpleton attacks that convince no one. Are they being paid by the mccain camp? That's what WAPO reported a few days ago - that they are paying people to spread their "talking points". Kinda sad really.....


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1magine:

In case anyone forgot about what this election is really about:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PdJUCU1UH2w

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Paul:

McCain at +4 is consistent with 538 projection at McCain +4.4

In 1996, NC and VA voted the same in terms of percents. In 2000 and 2004, NC voted more Republican than Virginia by an average of 4.5 points. Using North Carolina then as a barometer for Virginia, a 4 point McCain victory would mean Virginia is a draw. An Obama victory in NC, although not in the cards at this point, would seem to spell an enormous victory. A very close win by McCain in NC would seem to bode well for Obama. A win of 5 or more points by McCain would probably mean Obama also loses Virginia. A 5 point win in NC by McCain however would translate to an Obama win in Ohio and a draw in Colorado. So it seems that 4-5 point McCain margin is OK for Obama, anything larger can spell trouble; anything smaller would seem to lead to an Obama victory.

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marctx:

this does look like good news for obama. am i missing something? it says mccain lead by 8 but the numbers above say he lead by 5??? anyway, i don't think obama can win NC but if he's doing this good here that means in closer states he might have a stronger chance than i thought before. i do think Hillary would be the best pick because i'm one of the crazy Clinton fanatics that will only vote for obama if he selects Hillary. However, i agree that the speech dates clearly show she won't be the vp. it's going to be tough for my new candidate to beat obama.

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bill kapra:

1magine

You've been posting a link to a five-minute you-tube movie. I wish you'd put some context on it because it is a powerful piece and I second your suggestion that we look at it.

Let me be clear here, though I fully support its text AND subtext, the reason readers of this site should check it out is metatextual.

In essence, the movie makes the case that McCain represents a war-mongering mentality and will push the US into a continued 'war' footing into the foreseeable future.

Now, from a polling perspective, it raises the question of why the war has diminished so much in the public mind. There are obvious answers but they remain, imho, insubstantial. I opine that, when summer ends, we are likely to revert to a conversation that is both more pointed and more shrill regarding the role of war, power and American authority.

I would like to see close polling attention to the Georgian affair, the Chinese media manipulation in the Olympics and Iranian nuclear talks. To the extent that Americans feel xenophobic, that will play to McCain, to the extent that they feel isolationist, that will play to Obama.

Easy pulse to take but as yet we are not getting much data.

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thoughtful:

This is very good news for Obama should he get the AA and 18-29 turnout up in particular. There is a significant educational establishment in NC. This election will be decided by having the organization on the ground that gets the voter to the poll on the day.

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TheVoice_99:

1magine -

That did send a cold chill down my spine.


Good God, these people need to be stopped.....

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thoughtful:

It sends a shiver through mine as well.

Does anyone know when the next polls are out on Indiana and by whom?

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djneedle83:

Two words:

Early voting!!

I'm predicting Obama wins North Caroling by half a percentage point.

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djneedle83:

According to today's polls, Obama garner's exactly 33% of the white vote in both Florida and North Carolina. It's very interesting that he only gets one of out every three white voters in those states.

If Obama is capable of earning just 5% more of the vote white in either state, with a slightly higher black turnout he will win.

Which state is more winnable? (North Carolina or Florida)

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thoughtful:

@djneedle83

Florida much more winnable! I think NC is in play too. Its the white women's vote which will win the election for Obama. That is why Obama is going with Kathleen Sebelius. She is currently 2nd favorite with the bookies to Bayh.

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