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POLL: SurveyUSA OH, VA, PA, CA, NM


SurveyUSA

New Mexico
McCain 44, Obama 44

Pennsylvania
Obama 48, McCain 40

California
Obama 49, McCain 41

Virginia
Obama 49, McCain 42

Ohio
Obama 48, McCain 39

 

Comments
axt113:

good results for Obama, but even more interesting is how strong Edwards and he poll on a joint Ticket, often times double what Obama would poll alone, I would like to see conparisons with Obama/Webb and Obama/Strickland to see if Edwards is the best veep choice for Obama

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Very good polls for obama. As for the possible vp polls, I notice that the more well known the vp, the better they do.

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Swingebreech:

An interesting discussion has been going on over at 538 regarding the wildly swinging VP polls. I absolutely agree that Edwards high performance is due to name recognition.

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Knute:

Although SUSA likes to congratulate itself on reliability, they still do have one of the better track records.

Now things start to get really interesting.

It's possible that some of Hillary's voters are already coalescing around BHO. The numbers from VA, PA, and OH, in particular, ought to send some shivers thru the JMC organization.

My personal favorite for VP, Jim Webb, would only tend to solidify these numbers, turning VA blue for sure, and would effectively counter JMC's hawkish strategy.

This also may spell the end of any rationale for putting HRC on the ticket.

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C.S.Strowbridge:

Wasn't expecting such a lead in Ohio. I'll need confirmation on that one from other sources before I get too excited, but a big lead for Obama in Ohio would practically kill McCain's chances.

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Snowspinner:

Normally we'd have to call this an outlier, but there's an obvious and striking change in the methodology here from the other general election polls, which is that this one doesn't bother polling Clinton. That, combined with the fact that SurveyUSA isn't a crazy pollster, makes this very interesting.

I wonder how much of an effect polling both Obama and Clinton has, actually.

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Borman:

It's a little strange that having Rendell on the ticket doesn't help in PA. He must not be a very popular figure, especially among African-Americans and Hispanics. Maybe his support for Clinton has something to do with it.

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marctx:

I can't believe the pollsters are making a political statement and manipulating the political discussion by excluding Clinton from VP matchup and vs. McCain matchup. 60% of the democratic voters want Hillary on the ticket. All the talk on the news is about Hillary being on the ticket and asking the question what would Hillary bring to the ticket??? Yet the pollsters don't want to ask the question on the survey that everyone is asking????? Why are they getting involved in the political process by suppressing information?

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Knute:

In the past, having HRC in the equation has definitely softened BHO's numbers in a matchup with JMC. We will only be able to measure Barack's true strength once the Clintons are totally out of the picture.

This poll is almost worse news for Clinton than McCain.

Obama also shows a lot of strength with Edwards, vs. McCain with either Romney or Pawlenty. And presumably this would also hold true with Webb or Richardson vs. Christ or Jindal, or any other permutation. Huckabee is suprisingly strong, but might become a liability in the GE. Hard to say which is weaker, Romney or Pawlenty. Bottom line, Obama has a lot of good choices; McCain? Not so good.

At this point for Obama to choose Clinton for VP(s) would be a disaster from a policy standpoint, and may actually soften his electability.

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marctx:

"may actually soften his electability" That is the ridiculous argument some people keep saying. How can the person that does BETTER than you in every poll (including today's Gallup) against McCain soften your electability???? Obama's numbers would probably jump up 10 points in the polls with Clinton. That is exactly why the question should be including in every state by state poll. Some don't want to know the truth. They try to ignore it and spin it. 60% of the democrats said they wanted her on the ticket!

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Nick08:

Im skeptical about the Ohio and Virginia numbers. May be outliers cos theres no other poll that has Obama that strong in those two states. The super d's have to end this soon. Clinton is getting sympathy votes and drving a wedge in the middle of the democratic party. For Obama I think it will get worse before it gets better. I think you will see a dip in his numbers, and once the democratic race is over and Clinton endorses, there will be a equally significant bump up.

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Snowspinner:

I think we have to treat this as a fundamentally different poll than the Obama/Clinton comparison polls, in much the same way that we have to treat exit polls on "would you vote for Obama if he were the nominee" with some suspicion. When the poll is a comparative poll it is implicitly asking the respondent to choose, in part, between Clinton and Obama, and solicits differing answers. It also solicits a sort of strategic answering - polls are part of a narrative at this point, and respondents know this when answering them, and will implicitly tailor their answers in part to address the narrative. And so the angry Clinton supporters will respond differently to a poll that seems to be telling a Clinton/Obama story than they do to one that is just telling an Obama/McCain story.

To put the idea in a different context, anybody who still thinks the hillaryis44 blog is going to be running anti-Obama comments in October is nuts. The line may be that "even McCain is better than Obama," but that's not a line about McCain or even, really, Obama - it's a line about Clinton.

Take her out of the equation and of course people's answers change.

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Knute:

@Snowspinner,

I think the narrative you provide is very persuasive. Clinton's presence in the poll environment automatically puts a lid on potential Obama support (vis a vis McCain).

This is felt intuitively by all the Obama supporters - and thus their anxiety that she quit the race.

The only question I have is how soon would some of this support swing to BHO - and the SUSA poll may indicate that this would happen in quick order. Ergo, I'd advise the Obama supporters to cool it, and not aggravate HRC's fans - since they'll probably come around sooner rather than later. Of course some of this is speculation, but I think it's also the strategy that the Obama campaign is following.

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Snowspinner:

Knute - I think you're pretty well on target, and I think there's a good reason why Obama hasn't been putting any serious pressure on Clinton. He surely could marshall her out, but he has little reason to - better to wait for May 31st, wait for the Florida and Michigan ruling, finish the primaries with a pair of victories on June 3rd, and let some high profile superdelegates (Dean, Pelosi, Reid, Gore, Carter) put him over whatever the line ends up being a few days later.

The Clinton supporters need to go through what is essentially a grieving process (I think we're up to bargaining). And then the race can begin in earnest, and still have a good five months to play out. Which is an eternity. The contours of the race now will have little bearing in November. (Other things that probably won't matter much in November include the Florida and Michigan situations)

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IdahoMulato:

A new poll shows Obama ahead by about 17% in MT. I'm thinking about why people in the WEST are ;ess racist. Is it because they have very few blacks? Or because more people here are more educated? Any answers?

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IdahoMulato:

A new poll shows Obama ahead by about 17% in MT. I'm thinking about why people in the WEST are less racist. Is it because they have very few blacks? Or because more people here are more educated? Any answers?

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