Clinton 54, Obama 44... McCain 58, Huckabee 29, Paul 4
Ouch, SUSA is a very reputable polling firm this cycle, but I will remind everyone of SUSA's final Missouri poll:
So, like every other polling firm, they are off sometimes too
Posted on March 3, 2008 11:50 AM
It appears that several polls are all trending in Ohio for Clinton at this point, so it appears she has picked up momentum. the question is why? A more focused campaign message? The combined attacks from McCain and her on Obama? Renewed media scrutiny of Obama? She didn't run the telephone ad here, so I doubt that's it.
Posted on March 3, 2008 12:00 PM
SurveyUSA has been freaking amazing this cycle, but Missouri and Ohio have virtually identical demographics. And in Ohio, most of the polls had Clinton up. The RealClearPolitics average had her +5.7 and she lost by one.
Posted on March 3, 2008 12:12 PM
You meant to say MO I think, and I'm going to agree with you on that. Several polls out this morning do have Ohio "trending" Clinton's way, but looking at the crosstabs for all of them I see areas where they may be off. This thing comes down to GOTV, and I think we see a nailbiter from MO.
Here are the last 5 polls from MO before the primary:
SUSA: C-54 O-43
Zogby: C-42 O-45
Zogby: C-42 O-47
Zogby: C-44 O-43
M-D: C-47 O-41
Ras: C-47 O-38
SUSA: C-48 O-44
Ironically enough, Zogby nailed it. And SUSA had Clinton building a big lead between their last two polls....
Posted on March 3, 2008 12:21 PM
I respect Survey USA, but there are some major flags here. Number 1, they have people who think the Iraq War is the most important issue going majority for Clinton. Number 2, Republicans and Independents are just barely going for Obama. Number 3, the youth vote and middle aged vote is trending a lot more for Clinton than usual.
I admit, its possible this is all happening, but why? He did fine in the last debate and is outspending her by large margins. He also has significant union support.
I can't help but feel that, somehow, the samples aren't working here. Unless Clinton has managed to completely flip everyone's perceptions without a debate, without significant media coverage, and without any major endorsements, I think this poll is off.
I call Clinton to win by 4-6% in Ohio and lose by 2-3% in Texas.
Posted on March 3, 2008 12:42 PM
Mike, you may be right re: the polls, but note that of the ones you cite for Missouri, at least two were running polls that stopped polling three days before the election. so they missed last minute movement to Obama - the same type of movement that these polls appear to be picking up here.
Posted on March 3, 2008 12:49 PM
The polls have been underpolling Obama's support the last few weeks. Look at Wisconsin.
Here are my predictions:
Texas - Obama 60% Clinton 40%
Ohio - Obama 52% Clinton 48%
Vermont - Obama 65% Clinton 35%
RI - Obama 51% Clinton 49%
Why the clean sweep? Momentum and enthusiasm. Ohio - as much as people don't want to admit it - is right in Obama's momentum wheelhouse. Just look at Wisconsin a few weeks ago. Clinton had a lead there and got absolutely crushed by almost 20 points. Why? Well it was pretty darn cold there on voting day. The people that vote when it is crazy cold outside are very motivated voters. Now, who has the enthusiasm aspect going for them this campaign - that is right, Obama does, and that is why he won by a large margin in Wisconsin. Therefore, I expect the same pattern to hold throughout many of the contests tomorrow.
We'll see how accurate I am compared with the pollsters!
Posted on March 3, 2008 12:56 PM
Texas - Obama 55% Clinton 45%
Ohio - Clinton 52% Obama 48%
RI - Clinton 55% Obama 45%
Posted on March 3, 2008 1:17 PM
SUSA is not infallible, but this poll combined with all the others (except zogby) showing the gap widening is obviously bad news for Obama. I too wonder about certain crosstabs here, such as her winning among those whose top issue is Iraq, and her huge 28 point margin among white voters. However I have to predict with the recent polling, combined with the early voting that has been going on in Ohio for a solid month, that Clinton will carry the state easily, by an 8-10 point margin. Texas is another story...not as many polls released today, but I see Obama with a 2-4 point win in the primary and a large enough delegate win in the caucus to more than negate Clinton's gains in Ohio. Clinton will have her "big win in a big swing state," but Obama will once again win the day in terms of what really matters, delegates. Will it be enough to make her drop out? Probably not.
Posted on March 3, 2008 1:24 PM
Obama will get surprise.Hillary will carry Ohio,Texas and RI.Obama will win Vermont.
Actually, PPP had her doing even better among younger voters and GOP-ers. I have to say though, if you look at the cross-tabs there are some pretty significant differences. Public Policy Polling has it even among men, Survey USA an Obama lead.
Posted on March 3, 2008 1:30 PM
Ohio is going for Hillary!
PPP shows Texas in the bag for her too.
Welcome to the Jungle Obama!!
Posted on March 3, 2008 2:10 PM
Posted on March 3, 2008 2:12 PM
Look at the Obamababies spinning this bad poll. Bad Poll. Bad Poll! We hate SUSA. Die SUSA!
How's the new PPP poll in Texas look? Has anyone seen it?
Posted on March 3, 2008 2:14 PM
LMAO....Okay so I am ready to go with the left wing conspiracy that the polls are showing Clinton up in Ohio to "motivate" the Obama ground Game. Anyway, I think we need to be careful that this is not a repeat of NewHampshire but this time going in the other direction. My concern with the latest polls are the sudden demographic shifts, polling a stronger showing with women I understand... the last line at the Ohio debate of Clinton being a woman and women should vote for her historic candidacy blah blah blah (I am a woman by the way so hardly sexist)could shift some numbers. But with men and the young population she's gaining???... if its true Kudos to the woman for reaching into Obama's electorate, if Zogby is right, we are in for a long adventurous night tuesday.
For what its worth here are my spreads
Obama >11pts in Vermont
Clinton 8-10pts Rhode Island
Posted on March 3, 2008 2:23 PM
the newest PPP has hillary winning Texas by 6 points 50 to 44. have not seen the cross tabs. You can look at the poll from the link on the right side of the page here under political wire
Posted on March 3, 2008 2:32 PM
Josh is right... eeeek for Obama I am not yet ready to believe a 78-13 split of the AA vote again this should be at least high mid 80's to 90's. And holy batmobile!!! did you see the PPP men demographic 54-41 obama trails...where is my salt shaker. Apart from the partisan nonsense, anybody can tell me what caused this dramatic shift in the polls??? Has everyone modified their sample demos whats up
Posted on March 3, 2008 2:46 PM
I BELIEVE IT. OBAMA HAS TO GO HARD BACK AGAINST HER AND DO IT NOW!
I BELIEVE THE POLLS. HILLARY PURPOSELY GAVE WHITE/LATINO VOTERS POLITICALLY ACCEPTABLE JUSTIFICATION TO REJECT OBAMA WHEN MANY OF THEM WANTED TO ANYWAY JUST BECAUSE HE IS AN AA BUT THEY NEEDED A SAFE HARBOR TO CARRY ALL THEIR WORST FEARS AND PREJUDICES WITHOUT HAVING TO ADMIT TO OUTRIGHT RACISM. AFTER ALL, WHAT COULD THEY TELL THEIR KIDS BEFORE HILLARY STARTED HER ATTACKS OTHER THAN "IT'S JUST SOMETHINING ABOUT THE GUY?"
OBAMA KEEPS PLAYING IT TOO NICE. NICE GUYS FINISH LAST WHEN THEY PLAY WITH THE LIKES OF THE CLINTONS.
Posted on March 3, 2008 4:41 PM
"the newest PPP has hillary winning Texas by 6 points 50 to 44. have not seen the cross tabs. You can look at the poll from the link on the right side of the page here under political wire"
Newest Insider Advantage has her winning by 5 in Texas too.
It's looking great for our gal!
Time to get "comeback kid" headline out again. Never count out the Clintons.
Posted on March 3, 2008 5:09 PM
Well, given this poll and the others today (several posted after this one), it certainly looks like Clinton is doing better than Obama in Ohio. This is interesting and I accept it. We should all keep in mind that there's no point in polling if we all try to make each poll say what we're looking for. Voter opinion causes the results of polls, not -- at least in general -- the other way around I support Obama, but I'm not here to do that, or even to look for evidence that others agree. I'm here to try to determine the truth and I welcome each poll that helps me get closer to it -- no matter what the result is.
I AM, however, interested in hearing about good and bad aspects of polling methodology, so, please, if anyone has comments to make about these features -- red flags, concerns, then YAY, I love to hear them, whether or not they seem to support the performance of your, my, or their candidate.
Posted on March 3, 2008 5:22 PM
Hey Mike: Great predictions...Predictions:
Ohio - Clinton 52% Obama 48%
RI - Clinton 55% Obama 45%
Posted by: Matt | March 3, 2008 1:17 PM
Posted on March 5, 2008 1:04 AM
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