Pollster.com

Articles and Analysis

 

POLL: SurveyUSA OH/MO/WI/MN General Election Match-ups


Four new SurveyUSA automated surveys testing general election match-ups for President among registered voters (conducted 12/13 through 12/15) finds:

    Minnesota (n=556):

    Clinton 51%, McCain 42%
    Clinton 53%, Huckabee 41%
    Clinton 53%, Giuliani 40%
    Clinton 58%, Romney 36%

    McCain 50%, Obama 41%
    Giuliani 48%, Obama 44%
    Obama 47%, Huckabee 42%
    Obama 48%, Romney 42%
    Wisconsin (n=542):

    McCain 49%, Clinton 42%
    Clinton 45%, Giuliani 42%
    Clinton 47%, Romney 42%
    Clinton 49%, Huckabee 40%

    Obama 46%, McCain 44%**
    Obama 48%, Giuliani 40%
    Obama 52%, Huckabee 36%
    Obama 53%, Romney 35%
    Ohio (n=539):

    McCain 45%, Clinton 45%
    Clinton 49%, Giuliani 40%
    Clinton 51%, Romney 40%
    Clinton 51%, Huckabee 39%

    McCain 47%, Obama 38%
    Giuliani 46%, Obama 40%
    Obama 43%, Romney 42%
    Obama 43%, Huckabee 42%
    Missouri (n=547):

    Clinton 49%, Huckabee 47%
    Clinton 49%, Giuliani 43%
    Clinton 50%, McCain 46%
    Clinton 51%, Romney 41%

    Huckabee 47%, Obama 45%
    Obama 47%, McCain 44%
    Obama 47%, Giuliani 42%
    Obama 49%, Romney 39%

**Typo corrected.

 

Comments
CSF:

Hypothesis on general-election match-ups:
-- The more exposure and name-recognition Obama has gotten (e.g., in IO), the better he does (compared to Clinton) on general-election match-ups versus Republicans....

If this is so, suggests that (a) that margin will grow nationally, and (b) he will emerge as more "electable."

Any data for that?

____________________

Paul:

In these GE match-ups, strongest candidates appear to be Clinton in Minnesota, Obama in Wisconsin, Clinton in Ohio, and Clinton in Missouri.

____________________

Dwight:

looks like a typo in the Wisconsin Obama results - you have two results vs Guiliani and none vs McCain

____________________

badger:

Pretty odd results. I've always thought that Minnesota and Wisconsin were pretty similar in their political tastes, with Wisconsin being slightly more conservative. It weird that Obama would fare so differently in his matchups in those states, especially since he does better in the more conservative of the two.

Has Minnesota been undergoing any major demographic shifts and importing in Republicans, like New Hampshire or Colorado in reverse.

____________________

jeff:

Dwight (& others): Obama in Wisconsin was 46/44 McCain; 46/40 Giuliani.

____________________

Thad Beier:

I can understand Huckabee doing well against other Republicans, they just don't have a very inspiring cast of characters. What shocks me, though, are numbers like this against Clinton and Obama. MO Clinton 49% Huckabee 47%, MO Huckabee 47% Obama 45%. What can these numbers mean? Are these just Republicans always taking the GOP candidate against any Democrat? I would have thought that Huckabee would be popular among the evangalistic GOP voters, but here he's clearly showing broader appeal.

____________________



Post a comment




Please be patient while your comment posts - sometimes it takes a minute or two. To check your comment, please wait 60 seconds and click your browser's refresh button. Note that comments with three or more hyperlinks will be held for approval.

MAP - US, AL, AK, AZ, AR, CA, CO, CT, DE, FL, GA, HI, ID, IL, IN, IA, KS, KY, LA, ME, MD, MA, MI, MN, MS, MO, MT, NE, NV, NH, NJ, NM, NY, NC, ND, OH, OK, OR, PA, RI, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VT, VA, WA, WV, WI, WY, PR