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POLL: SurveyUSA Oregon, Kentucky (5/16-18)


SurveyUSA

Oregon
Obama 55, Clinton 42

Kentucky
Clinton 62, Obama 31

 

Comments
damitajo1:

So, Obama's spread comes entirely from white men in Oregon. I wonder if the media will say that gender has anything to do with it? Probably not. The demographic includes wealthier and "blue" white men. Those men could NEVER be sexist or racist. Ever.

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carl29:

You bring up a very good point. I have suspected that a good number of those white, blue collar men that are voting for Hillary in the primary will be voting for McCain in the Fall.

I think that those men are equally uncomfortable with a woman and an AA. Remember that the so-called Reagan Democrats, white-blue collar men, left the Democratic party precisely because of women and AA. It is not a secret that the most reliable constituence of the GOP is precisely white men. These men see the Democratic party as the party of women and minorities.

I think that it was in PA where a saw in the exit poll that around 8% of those who voted for Hillary said that in a McCain-Hillary matchup in Nov. they will vote for McCain. Those guys did not come out for her; they came out against Obama.

More evidence? In the national polls, Obama does better with men against McCain than Hillary; however, Hillary does better than Obama with women. Both Obama and Hillary win women against McCain; however, Hillary wins them by a bigger margin. On the other side, Hillary trails McCain badly, usually double digits, with men. Obama also trails with men but by a smaller margin than Hillary.

I think that this has a lot to do with the fact that: first of all, men tend to be more Republican, so this has to do with party affiliation. Second, Obama does better than Hillary among independents, who happen to be proportionaly more men. It does not mean that there are no women as unaffiliated voters; however, statistics show that more than 50% happen to be men, and a good proportion educated men,which works in Obama's favor since he attracts educated people.

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cinnamonape:

carl29: You completely missed the point. The survey shows that men (presumably mainly white in Oregon) are overwhelmingly supporting Obama in Oregon. In fact so are women under 60...as are people under 60 as well.

But if all these people defect to McCain in November you are right...Obama wouldn't stand a chance ;-)

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cinnamonape:

carl29: You completely missed the point. The survey shows that men (presumably mainly white in Oregon) are overwhelmingly supporting Obama in Oregon. In fact so are women under 60...as are people under 60 as well.

But if all these people defect to McCain in November you are right...Obama wouldn't stand a chance ;-)

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cinnamonape:

BTW The only polls that have done repeated measures in Oregon suggest a strong trend to Obama in the last month (or weeks). On the PPP Obamas +5% in the last week; and on the SUSA (which pushes responses) he's gained a net +7% over three weeks.

PPP 5/17-18 1296 LV Clinton 39 Obama 58 3 (+19)
PPP 5/10-11 949 LV Clinton 39 Obama 53 7 (+14)


SUSA 5/16-18 627 LV Clinton 42 Obama 55 1 (+13)
SUSA 5/9-11 615 LV Clinton 43 Obama 54 2 (+11)
SUSA 4/28-30 650 LV Clinton 44 Obama 50 4 (+6)

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carl29:

Oh goodness! The phenomenon of "Reagan Democrats" exists in the South and rural areas of the heartland. Thank lord that the sickness don't go to the west. That's way he does better than her with whites in the west and western areas. Remember that the closer you get to the South the more these racial echoes live on.

Example:
Rasmussen, New Mexico: Obama 50, McCain 41
Rasumssen, New Mexico: Clinton 47, McCain 41

Rasmussen, Washington: Obama 51, McCain 40
Rasmussen, Washington: Clinton 47, McCain 42

Rasmussen, Oregon: Obama 52, McCain 38
Rasmussen, Oregon: Clinton 46, McCain 40

Rasmussen, Nevada: Obama 43, McCain 48
Rasmussen, Nevada: Clinton 38, McCain 49

Rasmussen, Iowa: Obama 44, McCain 42
Rasmussen, Iowa: Clinton 42, McCain 45

As you can see, midwestern whites are a whole different game than the ones in the south and its soroundings. Obama is stronger than Hillary with these whites.

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IdahoMulato:

cinnamonape: I think you rather missed the point big time. Who told you whites in the west will defect to McSame. I think you're living in a fools paradize. I live in Idaho and many whites especially college teens and those in their 20 something realy love Obama. Whites here are very nice to blacks. One reason is that the few blacks here are highly educated usually from Africa who attended college here and some have inter-married white women. Additionally, the AA here are basketball, football or just athletes and they are loved especially by the girls. I once heard a white woman in her 60s opined she wished her mother were alive today to see that blacks are actually not that bad people because her deceased mom fit into what Obama described his grand mom. I wonder why many blacks choose to live in the south or NE, where racism is practiced. I strongly believe Obama will change the so-called electoral map in 2008. The blue-color whites in the west and mid-west are very friendly and color-blind compared with their counterparts in the deep south and the NE. Period!

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IdahoMulato:

cinnamonape: I think you rather missed the point big time. Who told you whites in the west will defect to McSame. I think you're living in a fools paradize. I live in Idaho and many whites especially college teens and those in their 20 something realy love Obama. Whites here are very nice to blacks. One reason is that the few blacks here are highly educated usually from Africa who attended college here and some have inter-married white women. Additionally, the AA here are basketball, football or just athletes and they are loved especially by the girls. I once heard a white woman in her 60s opined she wished her mother were alive today to see that blacks are actually not that bad people because her deceased mom fit into what Obama described his grand mom. I wonder why many blacks choose to live in the south or NE, where racism is practiced. I strongly believe Obama will change the so-called electoral map in 2008. The blue-color whites in the west and mid-west are very friendly and color-blind compared with their counterparts in the deep south and the NE. Period!

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Tybo:

"The blue-color whites in the west and mid-west are very friendly and color-blind compared with their counterparts in the deep south and the NE. Period!"

ah, the charge of racism if you don't vote for Obama!

Don't buy it... those obama white voters are voting for Barry because he sounds like them, he moves like them, he's not culturally AA.
If he was culturally AA, they'd reject him. This way they get to vote for black skin, but a white guy.

the blue collar voters in the south and NE aren't fooled by elitist smooth talkers who get nothing done but raise money and run for office!

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BLeigh82:

Can we please, all of us, just get over ourselves a little bit?

I think in the end that most of us want whoever is elected President to do a good job even if we differ from that person ideologically. I prefer Senator Obama, but if either Senator McCain or Senator Clinton become the next President, I hope that either of them does the job well, because this is my country and I want to see things getting better after some tough times during the administration of President Bush.

I get so sick of people who say they represent a specific demographic in the electorate, and that their said electorate is smarter or better than another demographic at 'picking out a winner'. Seems like a steaming pile if you ask me. We pick some winners, we pick some losers...I don't think many of us have impeccable track regards when it comes to picking out a President.

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cinnamonape:

IdahoMulato-

I know that comprehension of sarcasm is low in many people...when I said

"But if all these people defect to McCain in November you are right...Obama wouldn't stand a chance ;-)"

I thought it was clear that Obama's support by White Males in the West indicates that he can, and does, appeal to certain white males. The " ;-) " symbol indicates snark, sarcasm, etc.

Let me be blunt. Obama does have a lot to deal with in areas where people are inundated with propaganda like Tybo's above. In many States all people hear are the constant drumbeat of tales about Obama's "secret Muslim" religion, his lack of patriotism, etc. from right-wing talk radio and Fox "News". In the West there's a more libertarian or liberal tradition and folks are a little less likely to be drawn into such embedded ways of thinking.

It's possible that where Obama has struggled against Clinton , he'll (after some effort to familiarize himself to the voters) win over those who see that voting their interests on economic and foreign policy issues is more important than voting on bogus rumors about his religion.

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cinnamonape:

Tybo:"Don't buy it... those obama white voters are voting for Barry because he sounds like them, he moves like them, he's not culturally AA."

So what you are saying is that Obama represents a person that shares their views and values? OMG! How could people EVER vote for such a person!!!


Tybo: "If he was culturally AA, they'd reject him. This way they get to vote for black skin, but a white guy."

Well as Mark Twain had Huck Finn say to Jim when Jim did something that Huck thought was kindly "That's mighty white of you Jim". You seem to think that AA's can't be like Obama and be AA? Not all AA's are "ghetto" (which is BTW a derogatory term amongst many AA's) and not all Southern or Appalachian Whites are "rednecks". You live in a world of stereotypes, Tybo.

"the blue collar voters in the south and NE aren't fooled by elitist smooth talkers who get nothing done but raise money and run for office!"

All politicians are smooth-talkers who have to raise money and run for office. If they are inarticulate, can't raise money they are what is referred to as a "loser".

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Nickberry:

People who think Obama is Muslim were never going to vote for a liberal Democrat anyway. I do not know why everyone (including the Obama campaign) is working so hard to change minds of people who will find another reason not to vote for Obama.

Additionally, that Obama is working so hard to be identified as Christian and not Muslim is down right elitist. This was the basis of the film "Gentleman's Agreement" with Gregory Peck... but in this context it was the efforts by so many to not be identified as Jewish. Some things never change.

I really wonder what all the American Muslims think of Obama's pro-Christian fliers and words. We are supposed to be a pluralistic nation of religious freedom.

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cinnamonape:

Nickberry-

I symphathize with that...but we have to remember that even though 20% of Americans say they are either agnostic, atheists, or have a pantheist view of God...not a single such person has openly held either a major Statewide or Federal office. The reality is that the best that one can do is preach tolerance of others right to believe or not believe...while making much of one's own faith.

I suspect that people may have been more tolerant 250 years ago than today on this very subject. Fundamentalism emerged in the US in the period from 1810-1830 and its been tough ever since.

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