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POLL: SurveyUSA Pennsylvania Dems


SurveyUSA

Pennsylvania
Clinton 56, Obama 38

 

Comments
killias2:

I know this sounds crazy, but SurveyUSA seems to be an outlier here.

Rasmussen (http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/pennsylvania/pennsylvania_democratic_presidential_primary) just had a poll with a 5 point lead for Clinton. Quinnipiac (which is as respectable as SurveyUSA) has it at 6, and other recent polls have been around the same.

Still, interesting to watch.

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damitajo1:

SurveyUSA has been an outlier -- but right -- several times. It said Clinton would win Calif. by a pretty big margin, for example, while other pollsters and the news media predicted doom. SUSA has been the most reliable pollster this season. The tightening race polls have come from ARG and PPP primarily, and they have horrible performances.

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jsh1120:

Well, only one thing seems certain: Somebody is wrong. SurveyUSA's claim that Obama's "blip" in their results may have been due to media coverage of his PA bus tour seems unlikely. If it had an impact, my experience suggests it should last for at least a couple of weeks. And if it had no effect, it should not have been captured when it was happening.

I'm not prone to bashing SurveyUSA. Their work, I believe, is largely worth considering seriously. But they do seem prone to extreme results, whether right or wrong.

I have to admit I'm utterly at a loss as to what is going on in PA. I don't think I'm alone.

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killias2:

"SurveyUSA has been an outlier -- but right -- several times. It said Clinton would win Calif. by a pretty big margin, for example, while other pollsters and the news media predicted doom. SUSA has been the most reliable pollster this season. The tightening race polls have come from ARG and PPP primarily, and they have horrible performances."

I'd agree with you 100%, except we have a Quinnipiac poll too. I don't know, but, especially when it comes to PA, I trust Quinnipiac a lot. The PPP, ARG, and Rasmussen Polls (as well as a few other recent polls) just add to the weight of Quinnipiac's findings. Like, if it was just SurveyUSA vs. Quinnipiac, I'd be tempted to side with SurveyUSA. But SurveyUSA vs. Quinnipiac, ARG, Rasmussen, PPP, and a few others.. well... I gotta go with the mass.

SurveyUSA might be picking up on something though. I'd still say this is a 10% contest.

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lsmakc:

it came the closest on ohio and texas as well.
all of which makes me shudder at the divergence in the almost science of polling. it's like saying :for sure, then again...maybe.

so what's the point other than diversion?
when you think of the poll last week that clocked 12% of af-americans in PA when only 8% vote it makes you wonder what on earth is the mojo behind most of these numbers.

so anyone want to tell me what we do with polls other than let cnn and msnbc and arianna huff select their favs???

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infogiant:

I wrote a quick article on this earlier. When two candidates are moving quickly in opposite directions, it is difficult to poll accurately. Especially when they are both going up and down so much.

http://infogiant.wordpress.com/2008/02/26/different-polls-different-answers-the-elevator-theory/

http://infogiant.wordpress.com/2008/04/08/wolf-blitzer-is-a-flake-and-a-moron/

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killias2:

A few things I just noticed that are making me more suspicious of this poll:

1.Blacks are polling 75 to 25. From what I gather, Clinton is probably more likely to see 85-10 or so.

2.18-34 are polling 45-44 for Clinton. I'm sorry, but I just don't believe that.

3.Southeast is polling 52-43 for Clinton. I'm thinking this is unlikely as well.

In comparison to Quinnipiac:

1.Blacks go 75-17 for Obama here. Not that big of a difference truly.

2.18-44 is going 55-40 for Obama. That's a huge difference.

3.Philly (which isn't a region in SurveyUSA) is going 55-37 for Obama, and Southeast is going 53-42 for Obama. Also a huge difference and more in line with demographic projections.

Other differences:

Quinnipiac was April 3-6, SurveyUSA 5-7. Quinnipiac interviewed "1,340 Pennsylvania likely Democratic primary voters," while SurveyUSA... "1,600 state of PA adults were interviewed 04/05/08 through 04/07/08. Of them, 1,407 were registered to vote. Of them, 597 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the Democratic Primary on 04/22/08."

The date difference could have some impact, but I can't imagine why it would bring such a shift. My only guess: SurveyUSA and Quinnipiac have entirely different guesses on WHO will be voting. SurveyUSA interviewed less people despite having access to more registered voters. Their poll may weigh heavily for old school primary voters. Quinnipiac's poll may have been more forgiving.

Any other comments?

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lsmakc:

here's the fun part: cnn posted asap the q poll that has hrc's lead eroding. they have yet to post the survey usa one that cuckolded their talking head commentary on the eve of texas and ohio. let's see how long it takes them to post this headline link compared to the q poll!@

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Knute:

Two items to consider:

1. The difference in sample size between SUSA and Quinnipiac.

2. The number of SUSA respondents that "might change their mind" is fairly high in the Clinton row.

I like SUSA in general, but for now, I'd have to go with Quinnipiac and Rasmussen.

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zelduh:

jsh1120 wrote:

"I have to admit I'm utterly at a loss as to what is going on in PA. I don't think I'm alone."

You are NOT alone.

I was really surprised at SUSA's WIDE variance from the pack. I cannot believe ALL the other polls are so incorrect, especially when Quinnipiac & Rasmussen also show Hillary's lead tightening. SUSA been bucking the trend for several weeks now. I think they must be missing something - or some respondents.

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Mark Blumenthal:

Hi Folks.

I'm at a bit of a loss as well. Just posted some thoughts on the divergent results to the main page, with more to come later.

And thanks for all of your thoughtful comments.

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Mike_in_CA:

I'm so tired of this "SUSA has been the most reliable pollster this season" -- you are getting that information from a report card that THEY PUT TOGETHER.

They were a full 12 points off in Missouri. Maybe they just don't know how to poll PA.

They also called a 10 point race in NC, where PPP has had it at 20+ for three weeks. And PPP is FROM NC, so I think they may actually KNOW how to poll it.

I'm sorry, but just because SUSA was right about CA doesn't mean we should take every poll of theirs to be gold. Get a clue people.

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Clintonite:

calm down, Obamabots, you know this survey is true b/c if it wasn't, you would'nt be so adamant in dismissing it. Also, Obama has now bought more Ads like Romney on crack so you know it's true.

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