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POLL: SurveyUSA Pennsylvania Dems


SurveyUSA - WCAU-TV Philadelphia, KDKA-TV Pittsburgh, WHP-TV Harrisburg, and WNEP-TV Scranton.

Pennsylvania 4/18 through 4/20, n=1,800 adults, n=710 likely Democratic primary voters
Clinton 50, Obama 44

WCAU-NBC10 story (via alert Pollster reader Joe E).

Update: SurveyUSA blog post, crosstabs.

 

Comments
damitajo1:

i trust them....

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damitajo1:

the plot thickens.

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Tulle:

Is this poll really that different than PPP? PPP claims MOE of about 2. This poll should have a MOE of 3-4. Lets say three. At the extremes of the MOE we have PPP going from 46C 49O to 48C 47O and SUSA 50C 44O to 47C 47O. So within the MOE of each poll they overlap.

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nimh:

That's a big one.

Survey USA was the only pollster aside from the less-than-dependable ARG to have Hillary's lead well into the double digits, while the bulk of polls had it at 3-7%.

It was one of those situations where you're thinking, someone is going to look quite silly on the day after. And considering how SUSA was all off on its own in California too and turned out to be right back then, that was of some concern for Obama supporters.

So to see SUSA fall in line with Rasmussen, Quinnipiac, Strategic Vision and Mason-Dixon in seeing a mere 5-7% Hillary lead is good news for Obama boosters.

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Joseph E:

I wonder if they changed their methodology somewhat since the last survey. They are the only ones to see a significant shift in Obama's favor during that time.

But now we have more support for split between 5 and 10 points, with a few percent undecided. I still think this will end up as a narrow double-digit victory for Clinton, in the 10 to 12% range, when a majority of the undecided voters go her way tomorrow.

However, this result increases my hope that Obama could hold her to 9%, gaining a big psychological victory and favorable coverage in the press. Clinton is in big trouble if she can't improve on her Ohio margin even after a favorable debate and a strong negative campaign.

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Alan:

Quick question. In the crosstabs it shows that among voters who say they've made up their minds, 1% are undecided. How can you be undecided if you've made up your mind? That seems to be a logical contradiction (unless you've made up your mind to press a random button in the voting booth).

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Fourth:

Joseph:
They went out of their way to point out that their methodology didn't change..
"Last week, SurveyUSA had Clinton ahead by 14 points. Today, in a poll conducted using the identical methodology, the identical professional announcers, and the identical audio, SurveyUSA has Clinton ahead by 6 points."

Alan:
That could be the 1 in 100 or 200 who pick undecided because they don't want to tell anyone (even a robot) who they are voting for. Or it could be hitting the wrong button/not understanding the question. Pretty small number.

I like 53-46 for the final result. I would note that SUSA shows a much younger electorate than PPP, but has the more typical "age gap" with Clinton winning seniors by 30.


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