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POLL: SurveyUSA South Carolina Debate


A new SurveyUSA automated survey of 1,250 adults in South Carolina (conducted immediately following the Democratic Presidential Debate on 4/26) finds:

  • Among 403 adults who listened to the debate, 31% felt Sen. Barack Obama won, 24% felt Sen. Hillary Clinton won, and 14% felt former Sen. John Edwards won.

  • Among only those who said they would vote in the Democratic primary (52%), 39% felt Clinton won, 35% felt Obama won, and 10% felt Edwards won.

 

Comments
RT:

I've diaried at MyDD about this, but did you notice that of the 403 who caught the debate, only 195 identified as Democrats?

Even though SC apparently has an open primary, it's a pretty safe bet that most of the primary voters will be Dems, so the sample of 403 probably isn't very representative of primary voters. (104 of the 403 were GOP, with the rest either being independents, or not giving a party affiliation.) So all the age, sex, etc. crosstabs are probably pretty useless.

The one crosstab I'd put any trust in at all is the black crosstab in the 'race' breakdown, because something like 90% of blacks vote Dem. And there's a story there.

You saw the Pew poll a day or two ago, showing that Hillary leads Obama among black Dems, 46-36%, with Edwards way back at 6%. If Obama can get a healthy plurality of the black vote, he can take the lead; if Edwards can't get some black support, he's probably toast.

The Survey USA poll showed that of the 144 blacks who caught the debate, 81 felt Obama won, 30 felt Clinton won, 16 weren't sure, 6 each for Edwards and Biden, and no more than 2 for anyone else.

To me, this says Obama can pull black support from Hillary, but Edwards hasn't started to figure out how to gain black support.

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GMan:

Is Survey USA reliable? Questions raised over new GOP NH poll (see graf 5:Romney's rivals.. attacked the poll's credibility. They point out that Survey USA used computers to phone voters and ask questions rather than the industry standard of live operators..)

Romney leads GOP contenders in a N.H. poll
Results could engergize donors

By James Pindell, Globe Correspondent | May 8, 2007

MANCHESTER, N.H. -- For the first time since declaring his candidacy for the presidency, former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney is leading the other Republican contenders in a poll of likely voters in next year's New Hampshire primary, a development that could provide a psychological boost for his campaign and energize his campaign donors.

The poll, by Survey USA for WBZ-TV, was taken after the first debate among Republican presidential candidates last week. It suggested that 32 percent of likely GOP voters in New Hampshire favor Romney, compared with 23 percent for former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani and 22 percent for Senator John McCain of Arizona.

The poll, which has a 4.3 percent margin of error, also placed actor and former senator Fred Thompson in fourth place with 11 percent. Thompson, who plays a top prosecutor in the TV series, "Law and Order," has been considering a presidential run.

The Romney staff pointed to the poll as evidence that the campaign is surging. "We are seeing a great deal of progress in New Hampshire building our grass-roots organization, and the campaign continues to gain supporters," said Sarah Pompei, a campaign spokeswoman.

Romney's rivals, however, attacked the poll's credibility. They point out that Survey USA used computers to phone voters and ask questions rather than the industry standard of live operators, and challenged the poll's result that only 3 percent of the electorate is undecided -- a substantially low number compared with other recent New Hampshire polls recently.

The three most recent polls of New Hampshire Republicans paint a different picture.

An American Research Group poll released last week suggested that Romney was picking up momentum but trailing McCain 29 percent to 24 percent. A Zogby International poll released last month had McCain and Romney tied at 25 percent.

The last poll by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center -- which most political professionals deem to be the most credible assessment of the state's voters -- had McCain and Giuliani tied at 29 percent and Romney in third with 17 percent.

McCain's campaign points out they consistently have led polls in numerous early primary states.

"State by state polling reflects the strength of our organization in key early states like New Hampshire," said McCain spokeswoman Jill Hazelbaker.

The poll, conducted by Survey USA for WBZ-TV, was taken after the first debate among Republican presidential candidates last week. It shows 32 percent of likely GOP voters in New Hampshire favor Romney, compared with 23 percent for former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani and 22 percent for Arizona Senator John McCain.

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As a life long democrate if the election in the general come's between Obama and McCain, My-self and several people I've talked to will vote for McCain in the General Election. If, it's Clinton she has our vote. We don't trust Obama to know what to do.

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