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POLL: SurveyUSA South Carolina Primary


A new SurveyUSA automated survey of likely primary voters in South Carolina (conducted 11/9 through 11/11) finds:

  • Among 577 Republicans asked to choose among five candidates, former Mayor Rudy Giuliani leads former Gov. Mitt Romney (26% to 20%) in a statewide primary; former Sen. Fred Thompson trails at 18%, Sen. John McCain at 14%, former Gov. Mike Huckabee at 12%.
  • Among 448 Democrats asked to choose among three candidates, Sen. Hillary Clinton leads Sen. Barack Obama (47% to 33%) in a statewide primary; former Sen. John Edwards trails at 10%.

 

Comments
Spence:

Wow, Edwards has cratered in South Carolina, his almost home turf. Iowa or no Iowa, stick a fork in that boy.

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DTM:

Kerry was down something like 25-30 points in NH (also close to his home turf) as of the polls taken near the end of 2003, and still a distant third in Iowa. Of course with a very late surge Kerry took Iowa, after which the polls in NH reversed and he won the state by double digits, and then he took the nomination.

In short, Edwards is actually in a better position now than Kerry was at a later point last time. So in light of that very recent history, I wouldn't be sticking a fork in Edwards quite yet.

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DMoore:

Wasn't Thompson the front runner here recently? Is this a huge change, or is this consistent for this particular poll?

Also, the Kerry/Edwards comparison doesn't fit very well. Kerry had the advantage of being the candidate that was considered electable, where the front runner (Dean) was not. Although Hillary has some electability issues, she is also considered "inevitable". Running against an inevitable candidate is an uphill climb -- Kerry didn't face that.

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