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POLL: SurveyUSA Virginia


SurveyUSA

Virginia
Obama 59, Clinton 39... McCain 45, (Romney 22), Huck 20

Without Romney:
McCain 57, Huckabee 25, Paul 9

We encourage our readers to click through to see field dates, sample sizes, margins of sampling error, target populations and addition results.

 

Comments
Michael X:

There is a new SurveyUSA poll on the Republican side, without Romney in it:

McCain - 57%
Huckabee - 25%

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReportPopup.aspx?g=f37ee2e5-11bf-4587-abfd-727426356f37&q=45737

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Michael X:

And PPP has a new poll on North Carolina:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_020808.pdf

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tony:

wonder what percent of the women are african-american? just knowing gender does not tell us much. hillary's "women's" base has always been primarily white.

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KM:

They prefer Obama to handle economy???!!!

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HollyE:

How about this; How many of them are African American?

Answer; the majority

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roy:

I wonder what to make of the NC poll, which shows Obama and Clinton essentially tied. Is NC so very different from Virginia, on the one hand, and SC on the other?

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emcee:

KM, is your indignant question just a cheap way to suggest something that you're too lazy to support with an argument???!!!

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Steve:

Tony, the female vote in VA is skewed by the black female vote, just like the youth vote in CA (won by HRC) was skewed by the latino youth vote.

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Rasmus:

KH,
no, the margin of Obama is smallest when you look at the Economy and Health Care voters, Clinton is leading immigration.
They prefer CLinton, but most of them do not decide whom to vote for just looking to one issue.
Obama is prefered to handle Iraq, Environment, terrorism and education, Social Security is equal.

I wonder why non-religious voters do prefer Clinton?

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s.b.:

They are over sampling young voters. Which have been 10% in primaries near Virginia. Conn. and Del.

They may also be oversampling black voters, which is much higher than the population, but may reflect Democratic numbers.

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s.b.:

Also what the heck is the difference between an uncommitted and an undecided voter? IN Survey USa's new poll of Maryland 15% of voters are one of these groups. Since MAryland is a closed primary, if uncommitted means not a registered demorat then these people shouldn't be in the survey.???

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Ryan:

The authenticity attack is disingenuous. Romney has been consistent on every issue except abortion, but he had a dear, close relative die from an illegal abortion. That happened in real life. It was not a political strategy. He had a struggle with the role of government on the issue even though he opposed abortion and couseled women against having abortions. As Governor, he could not bring himself to sign anti-life legislation and emerged pro-life.

The authenticity attacks are exposed as smears here:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eZacl2bdbU4

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Rasmus:

Well, it could be that young voters are a bit oversampled, but in the official results for CT and DE "young voters" are defined as 18-29, SurveyUSA defines them as 18-34 years old.

So its not so much oversampled as you may think,
not 26&-10&, but maybe 26%-15 or 26-18%.

Your second point, I am not sure, but I thought that even unregistered democrats can vote as long they "register" a month before to vote in the primary.

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s.b.:

Well yes Rasmus but that period to register is long gone. So I am still left wondering what is the difference between uncommitted and undecided and why is this only in the Maryland poll?


So I am guessing here these people can't even vote next week, so why include them?

I realize the 18-29 vs 18-34 problem. I wish pollsters would use standard age groups. I still think they are over sampled but yes not by as much, however 10% is a long way off from the numbers they are sampling.

They even comment on it themselves in the Maryland poll and say young voters may not turn out in these numbers. These would have to be record shattering Iowa style numbers to be at what they have sampled, so I agains wonder why they have included them in these ratios??

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Chris P.:

Ryan,

Here's what I don't get about Romney on choice. If what you say is true about his personal experiences, then his judgment (if not his authenticity) must at least be called into question. If someone I love died from an ILLEGAL abortion, then in addition to supporting methods of decreasing the prevalence of abortion generally (which pro-choice people support also, like contraceptive/sex education, improved adoption options, etc.), the logical and emotional conclusion would be to keep abortion safe, and thus legal. All reversing Roe v. Wade will do is bring back coathanger methods, which benefits no one and should never exist, especially in a "developed" country such as the U.S.

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KK:

Where is the policy when it comes to Obama? Obama is better on the economy? How would we know, where's his policy statements. Yes Mr. Obama we know that we're in deep doo-doo, but how do you suppose we correct it? I want more policy, darn it. So far its Hillary.

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I love the rhetoric of Obama but I sense his lack of details. As a non-US citizen, we would like to know the specific direction the US will take, particularly its foreigh policies. I have yet to hear Obama deliver the specifics. Oratory is good but the world needs concrete policy directions for the US after the lamentable Bush era.

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RhodeIslandDemocrat:

I've been a democrat since voting age, 1984, am extremely liberal, am working on my PhD at a liberal Ivy League, and can't believe I'm having the following thought - but it's the reality. Almost all African-Americans are voting for Obama. Race IS an issue. No primary candidate has ever received such an overwhelming majority based strictly upon issues, especially when vying for the nomination against another candidate with extremely similar ideas. I have great fears about Obama leading the country. His cotton candy rhetoric makes him the Democrat version of Bush '00 and Bush '04. Small sound bytes of glory without hard facts and experience. If Obama is elected, we will have a chaotic presidency with vagueness, lack of certainty in decisions, and advisers running amok.
If African-American voters have made race the primary reason for their selection, which is grossly unfair, then I urge Caucasian voters to follow the same path.

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ogre:

RIDem,

Funny that such concerns about the African American vote being so ignorant in who they were going to vote for never came up when--a few months ago--Hillary was polling a majority of them.

Odd, no?

As for your concerns about Obama being Bush-like... and urging people to vote BASED on race, go troll somewhere else.

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Steve:

I'd say black voters are very justified in wanting the first black president EVER.

Just like some women are voting for Hillary because she is a woman (even if it's not a concious decision).

And it's funny seeing everyone here with internet access saying they don't know the specifics of Obama's policies, when all they have to do is go to http://www.barackobama.com.

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GMan:

As far as the economy, I seriously question Clinton. She had a huge war chest and managed to piss it away. Some of this may be attributed to her underestimating Obama, another trait I don't want in my Commander-in-Chief. If she can't control her campaign and some of the comments made by President Clinton, how can she lead? I'd like to address KK's comments about Obama being in deep doo-doo. I think your saying what you hope is true. Obama will sweep the Chesapeke primaries, and probably pick up the endorsement of Webb, who may become the VP. I don't think your comments are factual, but emotional. As far as the black vote, Obama rolled in ND, ID, KS, AK, NE, ME, and CO. These states don't have significant black populations. Obama beat Clinton 2 to 1, some states 3 to 1. Clinton didn't take the time to campaign in the small states, Obama did. She thought she could win the big states and it would be game over. Obviously, her judgement was flawed. How can she champion the poor if she ignores huge chunks of America? Were all the folks that supported her in these states college educated? Think about it realistically, that's all I ask. I agree with those of you who say Obama lacks some of the details. I view this as being realistic. Ideas are ideas, not to be bogged down in details that will never see the light of day. The legislative branch drafts bills and passes laws, not the executive branch. At least that's what I learned in 5th grade. Clinton can be as detail-oriented as she likes; her exact version of anything will never be passed. It will be debated, ammended, changed, etc., as is the nature of the process. The difference I see is that I view Obama as someone who will listen to all sides objectively and make a decision based on all the information. I think Clinton is much more rigid. As for PM, you should be ashamed of yourself for comparing Bush to Obama. Bush would lie if the truth sounded better, which has been proven over and over. It's too early to judge Obama's sincerity; your points are not based on facts. I also think one governs as they campaign. Clinton has taken money from lobbyists and special interest groups. This isn't free money; they obviously expect something in return. How can she be considered 100% credible in regards to Iraq when she's taken money from defense contractors? She's taken money from big oil, pharmaceutical companies, insurance companies, and Rupert Murdoch himself. Clinton has taken more money from lobbyists than any candidate on either side. Obama has been and continues to be funded by we the people. This unique approach has succeeded in raising more money than Clinton. Obama wants to rid DC of lobbyists. That would be a huge blow to the GOP K Street strategy, and it's the right thing to do. Without the lobbyists and money, the GOP would be hard-pressed to win at all. Clinton seems to be quite comfortable with the present status, which I think speaks volumes. I'm asking all Clinton supporters to vote for Obama should he win the nomination. Please don't treat Obama as the conservatives treat McCain. McCain is bought and paid for. He will do whatever they want him to do, which includes staying in Iraq indefinately. Vote Democrat if for no other reason than to bring the troops home. As an infantry veteran, I beg you. In return, I promise to vote for Clinton should she win. We can't afford to be a party divided.

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GMan:

I apologize for the spelling errors in my previous post.

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Dave Carlson:

How is Obama short on details?? When he first started doing Town Hall meetings, they told him that he needed to focus less on the details because he sounded like a policy paper. All of his plans are laid out on his website and evidenced by the 500+ bills he's sponsored since entering the Senate, plus 800 bills in the Illinois legislature. Just because you're unwilling to do any real research doesn't mean that Obama doesn't have clearly outlined positions.

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Smiley:

Where is the breakdown of the military vote?

We just voted for Obama.
Veterans for Obama
Yes we can!

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Percy:

Obama subtance. The issue is ... not that he doesn't have plans. Someone made them up for him. He can't talk about them....because he doesn't really own the content of them. He just doesn't have the conviction behind any plans, because it is not his. he doens't have the capacity for the reasoning behind them. Sorry it is true. did you not see him in the debates, expecially the early ones? For an orator....he is showed up by Hillary's articulate display of her command of information and the substance of understanding behind it.

They just need Obama to do the inspirational stuff to give the followers the kool aid. And whisk him away to the oval office...and then we will all be in dire straits.

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Smiley:

Iraq is a major issue. There were four veterans. three Whites, one Black, at the exit polls asking our opinion about Iraq. Clinton with 35 years experience still does not get the meaning of the Powell Doctrine, and changes her position with each of her elections, while Obama has been against the war from the start. All four of them started clapping and shouted "Obama, Obama"...
Our city, located right next to the AFB, beat the turnout nationwide, percentage wide. 82% voted for Obama.

Yes, we can

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Smiley:

Virginia has one of the biggest military communities, and all branches of the military are represented in this state. We have the biggest Navy base of the country as well.

Typical for the corporate media to neglect to give the breakdown of the military vote. They did it for Florida only.

Veterans for Obama
Yes, we can!

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