7/13-15/08; 666 LV, 3.9
Obama 55, McCain 39
Gov: Gregoire (D-i) 49, Rossi (R) 46
Just great.. too many of those 18-34 years olds who plan to vote for Obama are favoring a Republican real estate developer for Governor... Rossi.
18-34 year olds:
Obama 60/McCain 31
Gregoire 41/Rossi 46
Hope for the Democrats and for common sense... 24% (Rossi 55%/Gregoire 40%) could change their minds.
Posted on July 17, 2008 11:18 AM
Not everyone vote for the party. A lot of people, especially if they are just beginning their voting history, feel free to vote for candidates of both parties. Take me as an example, this will be my first general election, remember that I became US citizen in June 2006, and I will vote for Barack for president but I will vote for the REPUBLICAN congresswoman. I just don't like the democratic challenger. On the one hand, the democrat lady is such a let down, so boring, no ideas, ZERO personality. On the other hand, the republican is a moderate who had voted against Bush in key issues and is much more interesting, friendly, nice person all around. I am for one an Obamacrat who is going to vote for the republican congresswoman. However, in another district here in Miami, there is a democrat who I love challeging a republican I can't stomach, I already volunteered to this democratic candidate's campaign and had sent money to his campaign. I wish he were the challenging in my district.
P.S: I might change my mind about voting for the republican congresswoman, but I really would like to see more of the democratic lady. Maybe during the debates and the full bloom campaign things change.
Posted on July 17, 2008 12:06 PM
SUSA Washington polls since April have ranged from Obama +12 to Obama +17. This poll is consistent. 538 has Obama snapshot and projection at +12 and rates the state as likely DEM at probability of Obama win of 94%.
Posted on July 17, 2008 12:27 PM
FYI: Gregoire is the incumbent Governor. She was the former Attorney General and before that Director of the Department of Ecology. She led the way to get Hanford nuclear waste cleaned up. And has a long history in environmentalism, human health, and consumer advocacy.
Rossi is a real estate developer who served a couple of years in the state legislature. One of his advisors calls global warming a hoax. His biggest supporter is BIAW who is also the largest anti-environmental group in Washington State.
If someone believes in Obama's message and policies, why in the heck would they vote for the antithesis of such?
The only explanation is that some of those 18-34 year olds are clueless on the issues.
Posted on July 17, 2008 12:35 PM
I certainly see your point as I will not officially support either party entirely. I will always be an independent. Right now however, the republicans are on the side of (or affiliated with) war profiteers, religious zealots, racists, homophobes, anti-environmentalists, anti-science nutjobs, anti-Constitution traitors, xenophobes, and rich corporate pillagers/polluters. This is not to say that ALL Republicans fall into one of those groups, but most of people in the groups listed above vote Republican.
Now, I am fiscally conservative, so for that issue I would side with the Republicans. But recently they haven't been fiscally conservative. Bush has been the exact opposite of a fiscal conservative. Needless to say, I'm not a big fan of his.
So right now, the Democrats need to reign for awhile, if only to purge the idiotic neo-cons out of the political sphere. If rational conservatism comes back into the fold, then I'll give them another shot.
Currently, one party promotes diversity, rational thinking about most all policy matters and is on the side of science and logic. That's enough for me to check the "D" box all the way down this election.
Posted on July 17, 2008 1:25 PM
Could it be that Rossi appears to be good at fiscal stuff? I found this:
He had helped broker a no-new-taxes budget with Democratic Gov. Gary Locke and erase a projected budget deficit.
Or maybe people think that Rossi was robbed in 2004, just the way many people think about Florida in 2000. I found this:
The protracted court fight over the close 2004 election left many voters -- at least Republicans -- thinking Rossi was robbed of the governorship.
Jenny Durkan, a Seattle lawyer and close political adviser of Gregoire acknowledges that the 2004 Gregoire campaign did a poor job of defining Rossi to voters. He ran what many analysts considered a smart, effective campaign. Statewide, he far outpolled the Republican candidates for president and the U.S. Senate.
With this election we could see what could have happened if Al Gore had run again. You know, all the people who feel that he was robbed most probably would have rallied around him. Some sort of "justice."
Posted on July 17, 2008 8:58 PM
I was taking a close look at the difference between Obama's support and Gregoire's support. I notice that she has a huge gender gap compared to Barack, Obama wins men by 10% and she loses them by 9%, a 19% swing. She loses more democrats to Rossi than Obama to McCain, 13% vs. 10%. Obama has more support from democrats than her, 87% vs. 81%. Obama wins independents against McCain; however, Gregoire loses them to Rossi. She underperforms Obama in every demographic group.
Obama wins people over 50 by 15%; however, she wins them by 10%, down 5%. Barack wins people 35-49 by 9%; however, she loses them by 2%, a 11% swing. I don't think that she is in trouble just because those under 34. She should be doing at as well as Obama with those over 34, but she is not. My gut feeling? I think men are not happy with her!
Posted on July 17, 2008 9:22 PM
Those poor men in Washington State... A female governor, two female senators, even a female senate majority leader in the legislature. Rossi has a 9 point advantage with males and Gregoire has a 15 point advantage with females at 55%. (Obama 57%).
But just to be clear on the statistics... the 18-34 age group is the only age group where Rossi beats Gregoire and is statistically tied in the 35-49 age group. Gregoire is ahead in the 50+.
My point is.. Why would the 18-34 year olds vote overwhelmingly for Obama (60%) and NOT for Gregoire (41%)? Obama issues = Gregoire issues. Rossi is not even close... and is close to opposite. And I cannot believe that the 18-34 year olds are that sexist. Only explanation is "ignorance."
Posted on July 17, 2008 11:09 PM
Further... Rossi is not a fiscal genius. Governor Locke (first Chinese-American governor in nation) was the number cruncher as the former chairman of the appropriations committee in the state house as well as King County (Seattle) executive. Rossi's mantra on taxes and spending is still the typical GOP line.
Sure some Republicans think Rossi was robbed...even though the court in a strong Republican county found otherwise, the Republican Secretary of State found no cause, and the Republican U.S. Attorney General also found no cause to pursue. (But that does not account for so many young adults voting for Rossi.)
P.S. ALL the votes were counted in Washington State... therefore cannot compare to Gore where the vote counting was STOPPED and not all were counted. There were also several other voter disenfranchisement issues. U.S. Civil Rights Commission held hearings and issued a report, but ironically any action taken had to be initiated by the new Bush administration.
Rossi DOES NOT EQUAL Gore. Not even close.
Posted on July 17, 2008 11:21 PM
Just some questions:
Why men support Barack but do not support her?
Why do independents support Barack but do not support her?
why independents changed their minds about her since the last election?
Why does she bleed some much democratic support, this time and in 2004?
Why does she underperforms Barack in every group?
why those people are willing to vote for the democratic Barack Obama but not for her?
Why she won barely in 2004 and is now struggling again? Keep in mind that she is the incumbent.
You are blaming the 18-34 for rejecting this woman; however, what about the 35-49 that support Barack by almost 10% but split their vote between her and Rossi equally. Why can't she close the deal with those people who are going to pull the lever for Barack but cannot bring themselves to do it for her.
It is really telling that the default candidate, the incumbent, is not getting the support the "new kid on the block," Barack, is getting. My idea is that she was not the overwhelming favorite back then and for some reason people still doesn't love her that much. My gut feeling is that being a woman in a state that has so many women in power is making a lot of men uncomfortable.
Bet everything that men will try to block her getting into power again. If I were there I would do it: IT IS NOT GOOD HAVING THE SAME PEOPLE RUNNING THE SHOW FOR SO LONG. We need diversity. If the state already have both female senators, try a guy as governor. I don't see anything wrong about it. If I were a citizen of WA who did not vote for that lady in 2004, why would I vote for her now?
Again, I think too many women in power in that state could have fueled the strong second the guy had in 2004. I don't see any reason why those same guys wouldn't try to cut her off this time. Once I heard that some of the "animosity" young people, including girls, had about Hillary during the primaries is that she reminded them of their mothers. Maybe the same is going on with this lady or maybe is because of his youth, Rossi is 48 years old and Gregoire is 61 years old. Maybe just like it happened with Barack vs. Hillary young people want to vote for the younger candidate, the new blood. It's called identity politics. Remember how popular was Bill with the youth back in the day?
Posted on July 18, 2008 12:01 AM
Identity politics is not something new. During the primaries Hillary's support among older, white women was overwhelming, so what is wrong about the youth to support the younger candidate? Especially young men. I am not arguing that it is bad or good, but I think is a reality in politics. In some states Hillary benefited a lot from old people, white people, and women. In other states it was Barack benefiting from blacks and young people. For good or bad identity politics is very alive.
Posted on July 18, 2008 12:06 AM
Just like in 2004 she underperformed Kerry, she underperforms Barack. This maybe boils down to something easier but sadder: To young people she reminds them of their "nagging" mothers, and to men, she reminds them of their "first wives."
Posted on July 18, 2008 12:38 AM
Why carl29 are you blaming misogynistic attitudes for the reduced support for Gregoire? (Her personality is far from nagging.) Of course, she is not a charismatic as Obama so that accounts for the people who are supporting Obama. And notably Gregoire is not competing against Obama.
What you are missing is that these young people are supporting a Republican candidate for Governor that is the OPPOSITE of what Obama stands for. He may be similar in age (48) but he is far from being ideologically identifiable with Washington State young liberals. Rossi is very very far from being a charismatic character like Bill Clinton or JFK. So you are telling me that youth will vote for someone's good looks over environmental issues. If so... very very sad.
Posted on July 18, 2008 11:19 AM
Undecided, I think that these young people are doing the exact same thing that some Hillary supporters are doing by supporting McCain who stands against everything the democratic party and Hillary stand for. I don't understand how people can support Hillary, a pro-choice candidate, a candidate who wanted to bring the troops home, a candidate who wants universal healthcare, a candidate who wants to help people with the home foreclosure crisis, and then, turn around and support McCain!!!! So, if I don't blame old women behaving like little girls by supporting "anybody but Obama," acting like spoiled girls, then why should I blame young people for supporting anybody but "this lady"?
I am one who doesn't like women baby boomers. To me that was a deal-breaker with Hillary. I am not willing to vote for a women who was a feminist part of the women's movement from the 60's and 70's. If Barack had been part of the civil rights movement in the 60's and 70's I would have not supported him, why? I really don't want to revive old fights. To me, Gloria Steneim, Geraldine Ferraro and those agy feminists were a real turn off. Every time I think of these women, all I could picture is them burning their bras. I really don't like that. I think that they are pretty obsses with the idea of a women president, but a women from their generation, which I don't like.
The day will come when a non-baby boomer female candidate will run and I will vote for her. To me baby-boomers are a NO, NO!!!
Posted on July 18, 2008 7:58 PM
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