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POLL: SurveyUSA Washington (8/11-12)


SurveyUSA
8/11-12/08; 718 LV, 3.7%
Mode: IVR

Washington
Obama 51, McCain 44
(July: Obama 55, McCain 39)

Gov:
Gregoire (D-i) 50, Rossi (R) 48
(July: Gregoire 49, Rossi 46)

 

Comments
marctx:

Breaking news. Obama breaks 50%...barely. Down from 55%. Obama should win this state. Breaking 50% has been Obama's biggest polling problem. He's over 50% so put this state in Obama's column.

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Undecided:

Obama is going to win Washington, but "Obama has lost ground and McCain has gained ground among every demographic group."

Obama has lost over half of his crossover Republicans (down to 6% from 14%). Obama lost 9 points among independents and now trails by 2.

In Metro Seattle (55% of the sample) Obama's lead of 29% down to 15%.

These are significant shifts away from Obama in a very blue state.

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Undecided:

Note: Washington has its top 2 primary August 19 so there is a lot of campaign advertising for state offices going on. Note also that Washington is mail-in ballot only except for two counties.

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Undecided:

Looking closer at the numbers:

Mind made up is 66% of participants with Obama 52% and McCain 46%.

Those that could change their mind make up 30% of the participants with Obama 52% McCain 39%. This almost 1/3 of voters who could change their mind is consistent with other polls. No wonder so many pundits call the race "fluid."

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Clint Cooper:

Breaking news: Survey USA is nuts. A 2-point lead for Gregoire is way way off the mark and is a huge outlier.

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John:

While it appears Obama has lost some ground in Washington, it would be helpful if SUSA had noted that about half the change (from their last poll) has came from what must of been a dramatic shift in the numbers from the black/hispanic voters, especially as they have choosen not to reveal their precise numbers. Although I can understand why they did this. Unless I am mistaken in this latest poll Obama is actually losing the combined hispanic/black vote.

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1magine:

******MASSIVE VOTER FRAUD NOW UNDERWAY******

http://www.gregpalast.com/obama-doesn%E2%80%99t-sweat-he-should/


In swing-state Colorado, the Republican Secretary of State conducted the biggest purge of voters in history, dumping a fifth of all registrations. Guess their color.

In swing-state Florida, the state is refusing to accept about 85,000 new registrations from voter drives – overwhelming Black voters.

In swing state New Mexico, HALF of the Democrats of Mora, a dirt poor and overwhelmingly Hispanic county, found their registrations disappeared this year, courtesy of a Republican voting contractor.

In swing states Ohio and Nevada, new federal law is knocking out tens of thousands of voters who lost their homes to foreclosure.

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carl29:

Kerry won the state by 7% of the vote, 53% vs. 46%. Obama is underperforming Kerry by 2% and McCain by 2% as well. My bet? Both candidates will gather the same support their parties did in 2004. I don't know if putting women turnout at 51% is that accurate since they were 55% of voters in the state in 2004.

About the Gregorie lady? Well, you know what I think about her. I love to see how people talk about how dreadful this or that is for Obama, who this or that shows that Obama is into trouble, but that same person doesn't talk about the lady Gregorie.

Gregorie is 2% ahead of Rossi, way into the margin of error. Is she the incumbent? Yeap!!! What an incumbent!!! I think that my wish is about to come true, put her out. I'm pretty dissapointed that Obama is supporting her. Now, I wonder, can that support be hurting Barack in the state? If I am dissapointed, I guess many obama supporters, especially Independents will be as well.

My advise to Barack: Stay away from her. Let her go down!!!! She is not worth it.

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cinnamonape:

I believe the name is Gregoire (i.e. Greg-war) not Gregorie (Greg-oree).

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Undecided:

carl29 hates Gregoire because she is a woman. Somehow she sees Hillary in the WA governor. No matter that Gregoire endorsed Obama before the WA caucuses. No matter that Gregoire is a Democrat. So carl29 thinks Obama should instead support Rossi?... Rossi is anti-environment, pro-life, with a chief advisor who wrote a book saying that global warming is a fraud.

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Undecided:

Black and Hispanic registered voters in Washington State are negligible compared to Asian vote (6.6% population).

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John:

"Undecided:

Black and Hispanic registered voters in Washington State are negligible compared to Asian vote (6.6% population)."

True enough, but that's where about 4% of the 9% swing between this SUSA poll and the last SUSA poll came from. Which would have to be about a 50% swing in those demographics. I know the sample size for these sub-groups is small and hence this will sometimes happen but I think SUSA should have mentioned it in their write up, given that they didn't release the numbers for these sub-groups. Although, the fact they release their cross-tabs at all is a real bonus compared to some other pollsters.

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carl29:

I had each and every right to like or dislike someone on whatever basis I choose to do so, OK? My dislike for this lady is pretty much on sync with more than 1 or 2 people in the State of Washington.

Now, I am an Obama supporter and don't want my candidate to be dragged down by supporting a loser like Gregoire. Barack should stop actively supporting her, which doesn't translate into supporting Mr.Rossi, so he doesn't get burn.

*Remember that I am a woman, so why will I hate a candidate on the basis of her being a female? I don't understand such rationale, but I know that there are people who cannot look beyond gender, what about competence? what about effectiveness? Sorry but there are still people who think with their brains not their vag... or uterus.

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Colton:

I hate Gregoire too and I live in the state of WA and support Senator Clinton. Gregoire has failed us here in WA: she has raised gas tax by over nine cents, traffic has gotten way worse ever since she entered office and her promise to do something about it hasn't happened, she's failed the students when it comes to the WASL; only 1/3 of students who took the WASL last year passed all three sections. On top of that, she's a spending monster. Get her out now, that's what many people are saying here. My whole family is Democrat and most of us will be votng for Rossi this time around. Technically we are voting for Rossi's re-election considering that Gregoire lost on three recounts last and had the democrats take it to supreme court in order for her to finally win. Goodbye Gregoire, we will not miss you one bit!

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Patrick:

I live in Seattle and Colton is full of sh*t. Chris Gregoire has done a great job as governor, despite the kind of overt sexism that exists (and helped bring Hillary down nationally). The only criticisms I ever hear about her (other than raising the gas tax 9 cents, which is allowing billions in transportation projects either under way or on the drawing board by the way) is that she's "ugly" or a "b*tch". Never anything policy related. She's been named one of the most effective governors in the nation by several independent, non-partisan groups; WA state has been ranked one of the 3 fiscally best-run states by a well-respected (again, non-partisan) organization; and WA was just ranked in the top 5 of all states in the nation to open a business by a national economic publication. And she WON fair and square in 2004. It's not her fault that 550 ballots were misplaced in King Co. She had nothing to do with that. Meanwhile, Dino Rossi (pro-Brush, anti-choice, anti-education, and anti-environment candidate that he is) has done literally NOTHING the past 4 years but criticize her and fundraise. 4 years he could have been contributing to society in some way. No charity work; no community organizing; nothing. He's disgusting. After the voters start paying close attention to the race and what she's accomplished in 3 years, she'll win by at least 8 pts in Nov.

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Undecided:

Colton is not a Democrat or else he/she would know that it was the GOP who took the recount to court (not the Dems) and it did not get to the level of the State Supreme Court. In fact, it was discovered that felons voted for Rossi and a Republican judge in a Republican county took those votes away from Rossi as well as found NO fraud in the vote for Gregoire.

The "gas tax" was taken to the people as an initiative to abolish it but the citizens voted NO effectively leaving the gas tax in place. Notably the gas tax pays for a 16-year Transportation Plan so it has 13 years to go to see all of the results.

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Colton:

Excuse me undecided, but I will no way in hell let you say that I am not a Democrat because that is Bulls***. Just because I would rather have Rossi than Gregoire doesn't mean s***. The democratic party doesn't own me and I can vote for whoever I think is best and right now I think Gregoire is a failure to us here in WA state; that is MY opinion and I don't care what Patrick or you think. I supported Hillary Clinton, DEMOCRAT of New York. My family has been Democrat for over fifty years and has voted Democrat as well in both State Elections and Presidential Elections, with the exception of Reagan, Rossi, and possibly McCain. So lets see, overall my family has voted for 3 Republicans out of Hundreds; yep, I'm a die hard GOP. Know me before you make assumptions.

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Colton:

And for the record Undecided, the GOP decided to take the race to the supreme court AFTER Gregoire and the Democrats had already gone to the Supreme Court and won after three recounts. Over 500 ballots magically appear in King County, Rossi wins on the first two recounts, it's only on the third in which Gregoire finally won and it was then that the GOP tried to overturn the ruling by the supreme court.

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Undecided:

Why don't you even know the facts about your own state? King County found uncounted ballots which went before a canvassing board (public venue) who approved counting those ballots. (Those ballots were stored with the other ballots at all times.) It being King County those ballots favored Gregoire. The GOP (not Democrats) went to a judge in Pierce County who issued a restraining order. Democrats appealed to Supreme Court which overturned the restraining order and thus the ballots were finally counted.

Uncounted ballots were also found in other counties including Spokane and Snohomish, and through the same process (canvassing board) those ballots were approved to be counted and they favored Rossi.

Note: The only other state Supreme Court involvement was between Dems and Secretary of State on "terms" of the hand recount (universal standards or simple recanvassing.)Simple recanvassing won out which favored Rossi.

Do you understand that the second count was automatic machine count because the margins were so close? And that the third count was LEGAL and was a handcount as requested by the Dems who had to put up a bond to pay for it if they did not win? Do you know anything about voting laws at all?

Your total misstatement of the Gregoire/Rossi 2004 contest with the inclusion of GOP talking points indicates such...ergo me thinking you are not a Dem.

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pgill:

(Sigh). Now, now children....... I don't belong to any political party, and I consider myself an independent, but to suggest that Gregoire has been a failure is nonsense; she has presided over the state while some pretty tough times have befallen the nation, and the state is looking pretty good nonetheless. Traffic was hell here long before she became governor, and nine cents on the gas tax is piddling, considering what gas prices have done generally in the past two years. Nope, the problem that I have is that Dino Rossi is running for governor because, well, he just wants to be governor. That's it. And frankly, I don't think that is a good enough reason to be governor.

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Scott in PacNW:

@undecided

Well summarized & well said. Colton is nothing but a low-information Rossi troll.

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