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POLL: SurveyUSA WI, IA, VA, NY, Super Delegates


SurveyUSA

Wisconsin
McCain 49, Clinton 42... Obama 52, McCain 42

Iowa
McCain 52, Clinton 41... Obama 51, McCain 41

Virginia
McCain 48, Clinton 45... Obama 51, McCain 45

New York State
Clinton 52, McCain 41... Obama 57, McCain 36

SurveyUSA also asked the following question among registered voters in 14 states:

"Should Super Delegates be free to vote for whichever Democrat they wish? Or ... should super delegates be bound by some criteria when they cast their vote?"

 

Comments
Cade:

Wow! Just wow!

Look at Iowa and Virginia, supposedly "red" states.

Obama just changed them to blue!

If this isn't a CLEAR sign that Hillary should concede, then I don't know what is.

I'm telling you, he will take South and North Carolina too! Maybe Florida as well.

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C.S.Strowbridge:

Obama is doing better in New York? What the hell?

McCain better hope Obama slips up big in the next week and a half or he is in real trouble.

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Bob Evans:

Obama has started an unstoppable movement - nay - a bona fide revolution.

This just shows people in red states are not immune to hope. A call for change permeates even the most stubborn minds.

It is REAL, and it is not slowing down.

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Rasmus:

He may have started an unstoppable movement in the General Election Matchups- but first he must become the democratic nominee, and in the nationwide polls I don�t see any momentum except the Zogby poll.

It�s not that I don�t trust Zogby in general- so far in this Primary season, they were not much worse than Rasmussen was.
But I think that that 52-38 poll was a bit too optimistic for Obama, in my opinion he has a 5 point lead nationally.

Can someone explain this to me?
Pennsylvania: Obama 49% McCain 39%; McCain 44% Clinton 42%

He trails CLinton 20 points in the primary polls, but leads in the general election matchups?
WTF?
Why should a Clinton-Primary-voter vote for McCain against Clinton, but for Obama against McCain?

When the Pennsylvanians prefer Obama over McCain and McCain over Clinton, one should think that they would vote for Obama and not for Clinton, right?

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rowjimmy:

"Iowa and Virginia, supposedly "red" states."

Iowa is a "red" state?

Hmm...

might want to check the voter break down over the last several elections before making that claim. Bush won by 10,000 votes in 2004. Other than that, it's been Democratic in the last 4 GEs. At worst, Iowa is purple. Virginia is red, for sure.

2004: Bush +0.7%
2000: Kerry +0.3%
1996: Clinton +10.4%
1992: Clinton +6%
1988: Dukakis +10%

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Anonymous:

"When the Pennsylvanians prefer Obama over McCain and McCain over Clinton, one should think that they would vote for Obama and not for Clinton, right?"

You are seeing (at least) two things in that:

1) McCain attracts some of the independents that are drawn to Obama, which makes a matchup with Clinton more favorable to Johnny McCondom.

2) There is a lot of Republican (no way!) disdain for Clinton that comes out in *any* hypothetical matchup against her.

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adam:

6-7 months is an eternity in polictics. So, dudes don't get hyper excited just yet. Obama is already at the full moon--it's only going to wane with time.

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roy:

Don't know why people think Iowa is a red state. Because it's near Nebraska (of course, it's also near Minnesota). What I would really hope for from these polls is that it will stifle the 'electability' argument from the Clinton camp, and maybe people can vote for the candidate who appeals to them rather than trying to psych out the rest of the country.

Rasmus, (a) Obama isn't 20 points behind Clinton in PA, the most recent poll I think says 12, (b) the GE and primary involve widely differing populations. Obama may be preferred by large numbers of people who won't vote in the Dem primary.

As for not seeing any momentum in Obama's direction, Obama now leads by about 5 or 6 points in both Gallup and Rasmussen. This was not true on Super Tuesday. But anyway, national polls are largely irrelevant since they're polling states that have already voted. The latest polls in OH and especially TX show tightening races, which of course represent momentum for Obama.

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David T:

My prediction is that the Demcorats will ultimately have an Obama-Webb ticket. Remember that if Obama carries Virginia and Iowa, then if he just caries all the states Kerry did, he won't even have to carry Ohio or New Mexico (both of which, like Iowa, went narrowly for Bush in 2004 in a much better economy) to beat McCain.

Or if Obama does beat McCain in Ohio, Virginia would enable him to win even if he loses a narrowly-for-Kerry state like Wisconsin.

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David T:

I don't doubt that Obama's negatives will go up in time (so, by the way, will McCain's) but wouldn't an Obama-Webb ticket be very likely to carry Virginia? And if Obama carries Virginia and Iowa, and wins the states Kerry won in 2004, he wouldn't even have to carry Ohio or New Mexcio (to mention two narrow Bush states in 2004) to win...

No, I don't think Obama is Superman and 'm not measuring curtians for the White House yet. But it should give the Republicans pasue for thought that as inept a candidate as Kerry in a year like 2004 (which was not only more prosperous than 2008 but a lot closer to 9-11...) *almost* won.

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David T:

Sorry for posting twice. I thought that my first post failed to go through.

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Andrew S. in California:

Open Letter:

To: Those naysayers who say Obama is not electable:

1. Take foot.

2. Insert in mouth.

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Andrew S. in California:

Open Letter:

To: Those naysayers who say Obama is not electable:

1. Take foot.

2. Insert in mouth.

____________________

Andrew S. in California:

Open Letter:

To: Those naysayers who say Obama is not electable:

1. Take foot.

2. Insert in mouth.

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rowjimmy:

Third time you say it, it has much more authority.

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Rasmus:

roy, sorry, I didn�t see that Pennsylvania poll, the latest poll I knew was the Quinnipac-University poll with a 16 or 17% margin for Clinton.
Thank you for the explanation, another thought of me was that the Anti-McCain conservatives are voting for Obama. What do you think?
He gets about 70% of the republican vote in the most states, but that does not show us if the "republicans" are moderate or conservative ones...

I still don�t see a momentum in the race, 2 weeks ago they had about equal numbers, now Obama is leading with 5-6% points.
If you take away the margin of error, it could be 2 or 3 points as well, and that�s not much, at least you can�t call it "momentum".
In addition to that point, look at the most recen t national polls here.

"But anyway, national polls are largely irrelevant since they're polling states that have already voted. The latest polls in OH and especially TX show tightening races, which of course represent momentum for Obama."


When the races in OH, PA and TX show tightening races, but the in the national polls Obama raises just 1 or 2 points, doesn�t that mean he loses in the Super-Tuesday and pre-Super-Tuesday states right now?

Anyway, Obama is clearly the most electable democratic candidate.
I made a list of the GE-matchups taken since super Tuesday:

State margin Obama-McCain margin Clinton-McCain

Wisconsin 10 -7
Iowa 10 -11
Virginia 6 -3
New York State 19 11
Michigan 8 0
Ohio -1 -3
Minnesota 15 -5
Florida -16 -6
Pennsylvania 10 -2
Oregon 9 -3
New Hampshire 13 2
Colorado 7 -14
Missouri -2 -1
Indiana 02/05/08 -10 -9
Kentucky 02/05/08 -29 -10
Washington State 02/05/08 17 0

I think the numbers speak enough for them and for me :-)


PS 1: I am an Obama supporter, just to make my point of view clear.
PS 2: I think there may be a momentum for Obama in IN, KY and WA since Super Tuesday and the primary in WA, but there ain�t no more recent polls for that states.
PS 3: Sorry for my bad english again^^

Greetings from Germany,
Rasmus

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Rasmus:

roy, sorry, I didn�t see that Pennsylvania poll, the latest poll I knew was the Quinnipac-University poll with a 16 or 17% margin for Clinton.
Thank you for the explanation, another thought of me was that the Anti-McCain conservatives are voting for Obama. What do you think?
He gets about 70% of the republican vote in the most states, but that does not show us if the "republicans" are moderate or conservative ones...

I still don�t see a momentum in the race, 2 weeks ago they had about equal numbers, now Obama is leading with 5-6% points.
If you take away the margin of error, it could be 2 or 3 points as well, and that�s not much, at least you can�t call it "momentum".
In addition to that point, look at the most recen t national polls here.

"But anyway, national polls are largely irrelevant since they're polling states that have already voted. The latest polls in OH and especially TX show tightening races, which of course represent momentum for Obama."


When the races in OH, PA and TX show tightening races, but the in the national polls Obama raises just 1 or 2 points, doesn�t that mean he loses in the Super-Tuesday and pre-Super-Tuesday states right now?

Anyway, Obama is clearly the most electable democratic candidate.
I made a list of the GE-matchups taken since super Tuesday:

State margin Obama-McCain margin Clinton-McCain

Wisconsin 10 -7
Iowa 10 -11
Virginia 6 -3
New York State 19 11
Michigan 8 0
Ohio -1 -3
Minnesota 15 -5
Florida -16 -6
Pennsylvania 10 -2
Oregon 9 -3
New Hampshire 13 2
Colorado 7 -14
Missouri -2 -1
Indiana 02/05/08 -10 -9
Kentucky 02/05/08 -29 -10
Washington State 02/05/08 17 0

I think the numbers speak enough for them and for me :-)


PS 1: I am an Obama supporter, just to make my point of view clear.
PS 2: I think there may be a momentum for Obama in IN, KY and WA since Super Tuesday and the primary in WA, but there ain�t no more recent polls for that states.
PS 3: Sorry for my bad english again^^

Greetings from Germany,
Rasmus

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Rasmus:

Sorry for posting twice, but I had to post this 20 times in 40 minutes to get it out to the world^^

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Matt:

Virginia + Iowa = Ohio
Colorado + Missouri + Nevada = Florida
Georgia + South Carolina = Pennsylvania

These are all states that Obama will compete in, and I think win. I think the very fact that Clinton has not even mentioned expanding the electoral map is reason enough to disqualify her from the Democratic nomination. Obama envisions a new majority. So far he has proven that he can set the bar high and leap over it anyway. How could the Republicans have a prayer if they had to spend most of their time defending their own turf?

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Rasmus:

There are new Rasmussen Polls showing Obama just with a 3 point lead in Iowa and he trails McCain by 5 points in Virginia...


Clinton is far behind

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Beth:

Obama doing better in New York than Clinton?

Darn it, they must have counted his votes this time...

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Andrew:

Correct. I wonder why Rasmussen has McCain up in Virginia while SUSA has Obama up in the same state.

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Jane C. D.:

I am a 70 yr old white female who supports Obama. After Hillary's recent kitchen sink tactics and never willing to say she is wrong, I fear we would be getting another Bush like candidate should she win the nomination. She is proving that she does does not have the qualifications that would make a good president. Super delegates would be putting our country in serious jeopardy if they support her after she has shown she wants to win at all costs, even if it destroys the Democartic party in the process.

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