Institute for Public Affairs
Clinton 47, Obama 41
PA is shaping up to look like OH - but with 11 extra days for Obama to chip away at Clinton's lead.
While this may not become the near-disaster for Hillary that TX was, anything less than a 10 point win will make for an uncovincing spin cycle during the two weeks to NC, when any gains HRC might have realized in PA are likely to be neutralized.
If PA and NC are stabilizing, IN will be the game to watch. Early claims that IN is Hillary country may also not hold up, as her support generally softens the further she moves west.
I admire her mettle, but I now don't see her narrowing Obama's delegate lead enough to persuade the supers. If she persists without convincing double-digit wins in PA and IN, she risks looking like a crank, and they will drop her - game over.
Posted on April 11, 2008 12:40 PM
reuters just came out, 47 obama 43 clinton, how well has reuters done in the past primaries?
Posted on April 11, 2008 2:39 PM
No way reuters is right. i expect hillary to win by 7-8. the primary is closed so no effect from inds/repubs to obama. hillary has the dem machine behind her so rendell and nutter will turn out the vote for her.
knute is right. it is over after nc/ind. she should have conceded earlier.....
Posted on April 11, 2008 3:33 PM
Ups, sorry made a mistake, its clinton 47 obama 43
sorry about that
Posted on April 11, 2008 3:37 PM
Posted on April 11, 2008 3:54 PM
Real_Truth...the Primary is "closed" but there were major registration efforts by both camps to enrol new Democrats. Many Independents and some Republicans changed Party Registration. The numbers were pretty remarkable...a quarter million in a week for new and revised registrations in Pennsylvania alone. And Democratic Registration was outnumbering Republican 10:1.
This will make it even more difficult for pollsters to ascertain the effect of party affiliation on the final results. They can't simply ask if the individual is a Democrat, Republican or Independent. They will need to also ask if the individual voted one way or the other in prior elections....or changed over.
Posted on April 12, 2008 6:14 PM
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