Clinton 49, Obama 42
McCain 48, Clinton 45... McCain 47, Obama 43
Dim Economic Views Holding Steady
Most Americans Say U.S. Is Now in Economic Recession
eric - i posted on the wright blog but feel compelled to bring this thread forward.
who ever is posting under the female moniker that i shall not mention, should be blocked as bloggers such as myself and other decent but decently argumentative adults should not have this format turn into toxic waste. as such, 'whoever you are', you have won. i am signing off until this person either departs or cleans up their act.
Posted on March 19, 2008 2:03 PM
lsmakc: I really hope you won't do that. Your posts are interesting, and your perspective - having recently spoken with journalists - is one I certainly don't have.
Posted on March 19, 2008 4:00 PM
Anchoring effects and the Gallop Poll: The new Atlantic Monthly has an article about "anchoring effects". That is when we fixate on a number that we have heard even though it may be arbitrary or wrong and assign a truthfulness to it even when we subsequently hear evidence which contradicts the original number. According to the article this "affect" can influence behavior. I bring this up in the context of this years polling. Does a poll that says Clinton is ahead in the national polls influence voters or just report what they are thinking? Have polls become the tail that wags the dog? My gut is that polls are starting to cross the line. They have become both opinon movers and opinion reporters. I don't blame pollsters, but I do blame the media which fixates on the polling without caveat or explanation. Most troubling are the stations that report only the polling company with whom they have contracted. That allows outliers like the California Zogby Poll to be taken as fact. Just as the networks changed their proceedures about exit polling, I think it is appropriate to rethink the role of preelection polls. I know this is not likely as it is much more fun to report a "dramatic shift in the race" than to say this one poll contradicts 4 other polls, but it would be a more responsible way to report the news.
Posted on March 19, 2008 4:19 PM
Well a sign in the level of statistical significance that Rev. Wright comments have made a small impact against Obama. And even worse is that McCain is now leading both candidates as they continue to fight.
I wonder how numbers will change after Obama's speech in the next news cycle.
Posted on March 19, 2008 4:21 PM
Don't worry about McCain. It seems he thinks Al-Qaeda is supported by Iran,yet again,after being corrected.I think Obama will slaughter him in a debate.I just hope Obama's number come back up again.
Posted on March 19, 2008 4:32 PM
I find this espescially interesting in light of the Rasmussen polling.
Posted on March 19, 2008 4:35 PM
I noted over the weekend that the Wright controversy had taken a chunk out of Obama's national numbers in Rasmussen's tracking poll. Early indicators are that the speech may be sending him back up.
Posted on March 19, 2008 4:36 PM
March 19: 47 42
March 18: 45 44 -- Obama's speech
March 17: 46 44
March 16: 47 44
March 15: 46 45
March 14: 50 42
March 13: 48 41 -- Wright hits news
March 12: 47 42
March 11: 48 41 -- Mississippi
March 10: 46 44
March 9: 45 47
March 8: 45 46 --Wyoming
March 7: 43 49
March 6: 43 48
March 5: 43 48
March 4: 44 46 -- OH, TX, VT, RI
Posted on March 19, 2008 4:37 PM
This is a four-day rolling average, so each day gives us a 25% fresh sample. You can see that in the drop of Obama's numbers after the Wright controversy hit the scene. It was first reported on last Thursday (13th), got wide airing on Friday (14th), then four days later, on the 18th, it hit its lowest point of the week.
That means that only about a quarter of this sample size is post-speech. We'll have a much better picture of its impact in the next 3-5 days.
Also, kind of funny that Obama got a bigger boost out of winning Wyoming and Mississippi than Clinton did out of winning Texas and Ohio. Though I'm being facetious. In reality, Clinton's bump in the poll was more an artificial response to her victories March 4 than a substantive shift in support, so she was bound to come back down to earth anyway, with or without her subsequent defeats.
Gallup shows the exact opposite happening, with Clinton holding a 49-42 lead over Obama. Gallup uses a three-day rolling sample however.
Posted on March 19, 2008 4:39 PM
McCain's Continued "Gaffe" -
For the third time in two days, the Arizona Republican has pushed the definitively false statement that the terrorist group Al-Qaeda was getting assistance from Iran, even though he was publicly ridiculed for the same false assertion on Tuesday.
This time, in a statement from his campaign honoring the fifth year anniversary of the war, McCain wrote:
"Today in Iraq, America and our allies stand on the precipice of winning a major victory against radical Islamic extremism. The security gains over the past year have been dramatic and undeniable. Al Qaeda and Shia extremists -- with support from external powers such as Iran -- are on the run but not defeated."
Why do people keep calling it a "gaffe"? If he's stating something that's flatly wrong three times in two days, it's not a gaffe, it's a talking point.
All recent evidence has indicated that McCain has simply internalized the central Bush lesson of his war: if the facts are against your desired policy, make up new facts and continue on your way. A sufficient percentage of the population will believe it.
McCain didn't get where he is today by being stupid. He did get there, however, by being manipulative when the situation has warranted, by misrepresenting facts when they worked against him, and by knowing which wings of the Republican Party to cozy up to at which times. If he's completely misrepresenting one of the most fundamental facts of the war, there's two possibilities. The first is that he's dumb as a post. Possible, but unlikely.
The second is that, like Bush, he simply isn't interested in letting the facts get in the way of a good speech about the shocking, scary, I'm-holding-a-flashlight-under-my-chin-right now bugaboo of the moment. Since Iraq has turned out to be such a disaster, and since McCain supports Bush's bloody legacy, there's only one rationalization possible to explain why things aren't working out: it must all secretly be Iran's fault.
Third Bush term, indeed.
Posted on March 19, 2008 4:41 PM
Sorry , my table earlier was not clear:
Posted on March 19, 2008 5:30 PM
An e-mail I received from an old college buddy:
Subject: Barack's speech
Admittedly, I live in a liberal city and work in a liberal area of Seattle (south of downtown). Today at noon I went to a bar/grill place to have lunch and Barack's speech was on a few of the plasma TVs at the bar.
Everyone in that bar was absolutely mesmerized by this guy. It reminded of Jed and I watching the OJ verdict on TV so many years ago.
I have no idea whether this speech was politically good -a good friend of mine was telling that the right was making their usual hatchet job. I almost am curious to find out what the Clintons will do with this.
Up until today I was torn about what I was going to do in November. I can't stomach voting Republican mostly because of their social agenda. But I wasn't bowled over by Barack or Hillary. See I am too cynical and jaded to believe in hope and inspiration and all of Barack's rhetoric. Hillary's sense of inevitability and entitlement smacks of a politburo bureacrat whose turn has finally come.
Today though I am a believer. Maybe I am a sucker and maybe I will be dissapointed again. But right now I have bought into the dream. And against my better rational judgement I am allowing myself to believe that sometimes the messenger transcends the message. And that hope and inspiration can be the catalyst for real change.
There is one thing I disagree with Obama about. Obama has said, "We are the ones we have been waiting for". Wrong.
Perhaps, just perhaps, HE is the one We have been waiting for.
Posted on March 19, 2008 6:06 PM
Posted on March 19, 2008 6:14 PM
"truth" - what a joke post
I'm sorry, why is Hillary qualified again?
Her shrill voice? Her stocky stature? Why again?
Because it sure isn't her "experience".
Or do you mean her inability to get any type of universal health care done under Bill and a dem congress? Or perhaps that oh so intelligent Iraq War vote?
WHAT HAS SHE DONE??????
Nothing. That's what. Besides run the most ineffective substandard campaign in modern political history. And now she has become a traitor to Democrats everywhere, deliberately trying to sabotage Obama's presidential campaign. She knows she is going to lose and yet she plods forward to do as much damage to Obama as she possibly can.
Posted on March 19, 2008 6:38 PM
@ John from wherever,
I believe that you are actually a nice guy with convictions. I believe that we both care about the same issues. John this election is not about personality and who you like (although I don't know how you can support racism through Obama), but its about who can win and who can steer this country in the way we want it with our ideologies. Racist Obama is done, he is truly done, now its either Hillary or mcCain, you choose.
Posted on March 19, 2008 6:48 PM
Hey Hillary, not all of us suffer from White guilt. Some of us know that we are not responsible for the terrible sins of our fathers, and I pray to God for Her mercy
( yes, HER mercy), but we will not destroy America by supporting a Black power candidate. We love all races, we love all mankind, and we love you. You andf only you can end the war, you and only you can stop the recession, you and only you can heal this nation. May Her light shine on you, and guide you all the way to the White House. Now, i will go kiss my wife, hug my kids, and sing, I AM PROUD TO BE AN AMERICAN, AND I LOVE AMERICA, GOD BLESS AMERICA AND ALL HER PEOPLE
Posted on March 19, 2008 7:04 PM
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