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POLL: The Daily Gallup


Gallup Poll

National
Clinton 48, Obama 43
McCain 47, Obama 43... McCain 48, Clinton 45

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Comments
carole:

Interesting trend.

When Obama was polling ahead of Clinton, both Democratic candidates were polling to beat McCain.

Now that Clinton is polling ahead of Obama, McCain is polling to beat both Democratic candidates.

What I'm wondering about is whether the independent voters who were rooting for Obama are going to McCain? Or is the nastiness in this election dragging down both Democratic candidates?

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carole:

Interesting trend.

When Obama was polling ahead of Clinton, both Democratic candidates were polling to beat McCain.

Now that Clinton is polling ahead of Obama, McCain is polling to beat both Democratic candidates.

What I'm wondering about is whether the independent voters who were rooting for Obama are going to McCain? Or is the nastiness in this election dragging down both Democratic candidates?

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Joseph E:

Why is Gallup's poll more pro-McCain than Fox New's poll? They seem to have a consistent but small bias in that direction. I also think they understate Obama's support by a few percent (compare to Rasmussen: http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll )

But I do trust that Gallup shows at least something about the trend. I wish that they would break out the daily results so we could see how much "noise" there is around the trend, and increase our skepticism accordingly.

Gallup says "While Tuesday night polling [the day of the speech] showed no immediate benefit for Obama, the Wednesday results were more favorable to him, as reflected in the slight drop in Clinton's three-day average lead. This suggests at least the possibility that Obama has stopped his losses."

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Joseph E:

The other daily results from Rasmussen Reports:

"On Friday morning, McCain leads Barack Obama 49% to 41% and Hillary Clinton 51% to 41%"

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/general_election_match_up_history

No good news for the democrats there. This say something about the power of negative news to spill over to everyone in one party.

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