National through 3/23
Clinton 46, Obama 44
McCain 50, Obama 41... McCain 49, Clinton 42
McCain 52, Obama 42... McCain 50, Clinton 34
Obama 45, McCain 41... Clinton 44, McCain 43
I was just curious if anyone has seen any projects of turnout in november based on primary turnouts. Are we possibly looking at a record GE turnout such as 80-90% turnout if so is there any model for polls or possible problems getting offical results
Posted on March 24, 2008 7:09 PM
We may well see a record turnout, but that would still likely mean only 63-65 percent of eligible voters.
It seems to me that the results of these Rasmussen polls are inconsistent with each other. It isn't plausible that McCain has a 9 point lead over Obama nationally and also has a 9 point lead in NC and is trailing by a couple of points in Nevada. A 9 pt. lead in NC and 2 pt. deficit in NV would be consistent with something close to a dead heat nationally.
Posted on March 24, 2008 7:49 PM
A 9 pt. lead in NC and 2 pt. deficit in NV would be consistent with something close to a dead heat nationally.
I don't see the inconsistency. NC is a much redder state than NV, therefore it is to be expected that McCain holds a wider lead in NC than he does in NV.
Posted on March 24, 2008 10:41 PM
I believe Mr. Abramowitz was suggesting that NC if NC is about 11 points "redder" than NV and NV went to Bush by a tiny fraction in 2000, then an Obama lead in NV would be suggestive of a very close race overall. I haven't check NC's party preference performance vs NV in the last two cycles but 11% might be about right. I can think of two reasons why we might draw different conclusions from the presented data. The first reason would be the old standby of the margin of error - just by taking 3% off McCain's national lead and lopping about the same off Obama's NV lead we would get a more plausible (if still somewhat anomalous) result. I think a more likely explanation would be a decoupling of the NC and NV preferences. A McCain/Obama general election will be quite different than either of the last two cycles, so we wouldn't necessarily expect the preference differential to remain constant. Futhermore, the demographics have been shifting rapidly in both of those states (esp. NV).
For what it's worth, I'm a Obama supporter, and I've mapped out a bunch of paths to Electoral victory for all three candidates. While I think Obama could win NC in the general, he certainly doesn't need to do so. NV is probably more crucial. If Obama can win NV, IA, VA, and MO (which I think he can do, even in an election that is very close in the national popular vote) it becomes almost impossible for McCain to win. Adding NM, the single Elector from Omaha's congressional district, and GA or NC starts to look like a landslide. Clearly, NC is a must win for McCain, and NV is probably a true swing state that would substantially bolster the chances of any of the three but is not make or break.
Posted on March 25, 2008 12:34 AM
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