Pollster.com

Articles and Analysis

 

POLL: The Daily Rasmussen


Rasmussen Reports

National
Obama 48, Clinton 41
McCain 46, Obama 45... McCain 48, Clinton 42

Favorable / Unfavorable
McCain: 52 / 45
Clinton: 45 / 53
Obama: 52 / 45

Alaska
McCain 48, Obama 43... McCain 57, Clinton 32
Sen: Stevens 46, Begich 45

Montana
McCain 48, Obama 43... McCain 54, Clinton 36

Ohio
McCain 47, Clinton 42... McCain 47, Obama 40

New Mexico
Obama 45, McCain 42... McCain 46, Clinton 43
Sen: Udall 54, Pearce 40... Udall 56, Wilson 36

 

Comments
Andrew_in_California:

I'm amazed to see states like Montana and Alaska that have been deep red states for years and years finally coming to a tinge of possible blue for this election under Obama as the nominee.

____________________

cinnamonape:

Alaska can be partially explained by the fact that Stevens and the Republican Party have utterly destroyed the party "brand" there...still that Obama does so much better than Clinton shows some real issues.

The SUSA poll of about a month back also showed that Obama placed more "Red States" (and cross-over States) in competition than Clinton. Still Clinton supports might point to the Ohio results (although statistically insignificant) and say that she could win more big critical States, and does better in the Blue States. However, in a "winner-take-all electoral College you don't get extra points for winning by 65% than by 51%. So the goal is to get competitive and win in battleground states. This also should help the party in the down-ticket races.

In the SUSA poll Obama also did quite well in Texas. Clinton did better in Florida.

One thing these polls should begin to evaluate is how well the different candidates generate "Likely Voters". Earlier polls have often failed to correctly model who would come out and vote from the pool of registered voters. It should be simply to correct their estimates of likely voters from various demographic groups based upon increased turnout in those demographics from what they originally modeled.

They also need to establish some weight for increased Party turnouts based on Primary participation.

____________________



Post a comment




Please be patient while your comment posts - sometimes it takes a minute or two. To check your comment, please wait 60 seconds and click your browser's refresh button. Note that comments with three or more hyperlinks will be held for approval.

MAP - US, AL, AK, AZ, AR, CA, CO, CT, DE, FL, GA, HI, ID, IL, IN, IA, KS, KY, LA, ME, MD, MA, MI, MN, MS, MO, MT, NE, NV, NH, NJ, NM, NY, NC, ND, OH, OK, OR, PA, RI, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VT, VA, WA, WV, WI, WY, PR