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POLL: TIME Democratic Iowa Caucus


A new Time national statewide survey (TIME story, SRBI release, results) of 519 registered voters in Iowa who are likely to attend the 2008 Democratic caucuses (conducted 8/22 through 8/26) finds:

  • Former Sen. John Edwards (at 29%) leads Sen. Hillary Clinton (24%) in a statewide caucus; Sen. Barack Obama runs at 22%, Gov. Bill Richardson at 11%, Sen. Joe Biden at 5%. All other candidates receive less than 5% each.
  • When asked to choose among "the top four candidates;" former Edwards (at 32%) leads Clinton (24%) and Obama (22%); Gov. Bill Richardson trails at 13%.
  • "About half of likely caucus goers currently supporting a candidate (46%) say that they still might change their minds."

"The sample source was a list of registered Democratic and Independent voters in Iowa provided by Voter Contact Services. These registered voters were screened to determine their likelihood of attending the 2008 Iowa Democratic caucuses. Likely voters included in the sample included those who said they were 100% certain that they would attend the Iowa caucuses, or probably going to attend and reported that they had attended a previous Iowa caucus."

View all Iowa Caucus poll data at Pollster.com:

AIATopDems190.png AIATopReps190.png
Democrats Republicans

 

Comments
roy:

A "national survey" of "voters in Iowa"? A little confusing.

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Andrew:

Time has Edwards +5 over Clinton, while the ARG poll conducted just 5 days afterwards has Clinton leading him by +8.

Both polls surveyed likely voters.
I suggest that Pollster discontinue coverage of ARG or Time depending on the January election results. If these contrasting results become a pattern, we will have to conclude that someone is screwing up.

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Paul:

Top three in Iowa have been moving around and differ by poll, but no candidate has touched the top three. Richardson how appears to be the second tier candidate.

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