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POLL: Time Pennsylvania Dems


TIME/Abt SRBI

Pennsylvania
Clinton 49, Obama 41

 

Comments
Knute:

This poll is interesting in the way they count "leaners."

Just a quick look at the history of PA, TX, OH, CA shows some differences in the numbers of "undecideds" for different pollsters.

Quinnipiac makes a recent comment that they include "leaners," but how much do they "push" them. For example, SUSA typically has low numbers of "undecideds," whereas Quinnipiac's levels are modest. PPP and Rasmussen tend to be higher, and I'm suspecting they don't "push" their respondents as much.

It would seem to me that depending on the election and how far out it is, a larger number of undecideds may be the norm - and a given pollster may be skewing the results by pushing them to try to see how they might break. On the other hand, closer in, the repondents are becoming more committed to a given candidate, and the number of undecideds would, usually, go down naturally.

Pardon me if this is a naive observation or question, and please feel free to comment. But it seems to me that in in effort to provide definitive results early on, some pollsters may be contaminating their data - and a more neutral treatment of the "leaners" would give a truer picture of voter sentiment.

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Jeff:

Knute: Time's pollster asks respondents if they would vote for Obama or Clinton, then with the undecideds asks, "Do you lean more toward supporting Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama?"

Similarly, Quinnipiac asks undecideds, "As of today, do you lean more toward Clinton or Obama?"

PPP does not appear to press the undecideds at all. Not sure about SUSA.

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Jeff:

Odd that Time waited so long to release the poll. They completed the survey Sunday. There have been four polls in the field since then that released their results BEFORE Time did and three of them have larger samples.

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distantobserver:

More details here.


Full results

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